Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 no comment -but do you think you are getting your money's worth ? this year, no, he's been horrible...JB is always bad in warm winters, never sees the extent of the warmth. But he does lay out maps and stuff and it's a good read most of the time. Always gives hope to the weeneies. Joe d'Aleo's blog there is also good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Upton's AFD calls for mainly rain at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is predicting 3 - 6 for most of us -72 -84 hours out - this is total BS - he did the same thing last weekend - still waiting for that 3-6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is predicting 3 - 6 for most of us -72 -84 hours out - this is total BS - he did the same thing last weekend - still waiting for that 3-6 . 6-12 this weekend to make up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 6-12 this weekend to make up? we would need a snow gun to get that much but wouldn't be able to use it because the temp probably won't dip to 28 or below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 we would need a snow gun to get that much but wouldn't be able to use it because the temp probably won't dip to 28 or below We can't even make snow this winter, last year we coulda joked and said 40-50 inches in 2days and it was plausible to people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Henry put us in c-3 on his map, for once he maybe close to right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Henry put us in c-3 on his map, for once he maybe close to right I don't agree - he is too far north right now by over a hundred miles- the GFS trended south and east the Euro is still south and east - his map doesn't make any sense with the data available and the direction its going he is going with the outlier amped GFS - another bust coming for him http://www.accuweath...-good-one/61669 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Joe bustardi posted his map via twitter here ya go http://p.twimg.com/Alx4kiDCQAE788t.jpg:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Henry's map shows 3-6 for most of NYC especially north and C-3 for everyone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Joe bustardi posted his map via twitter here ya go http://p.twimg.com/A...E788t.jpg:large he has his 6 inch line to the south and henry has his to the north - these guys are just going with their gut feel right now - no data supports either of them right now and its ridicoulus in this type of situation to even draw a snow map this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Got to love the hate and half posts. Would be nice if you guys actually posted the full text of what I write, but what ever. You know you are doing something right when your business is growing right along with the number of haters who don't have a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 By the way, for all this talk about major winter storms this year, 95% of the forecast area I have has verified successfully, which is a pretty good rate. That was verified by my own clients who I send out reviews too. You know, to see how I can improve the business. Anyway, I know that you guys don't like facts and all. But the January storm where I went low for NYC basically was dead on as was the previous February storm of a grand total of a trace for most locations. So basically we have either I have a major snow bias or a major warm bias, depending on what ever you want in your back yard and I don't agree with. Like I said, it's pretty laughable. However, I do want to make clear and hope the moderators here back this up, I do not pay people to post my thoughts here just like JB, HM, or DT. The notion of that is laughable. Hell, if that was the case I'd just come and post the whole forecast myself and save the money, probably get some new boxing gloves or something. The point is, whether you like me or hate me, I think it's pretty cheap for this forum to sponsor unfound accusations like that. I don't expect an apology but I do expect you to be mindful of such statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Cantore tweet Models on par w/ more eastern tracking wave hence a mid-Atlantic event. Storm WILL NEED TO PRODUCE ITS COLD AIR for impact #snow in BWI/DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 always dangerous when you have to rely on a storm to produce it's own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 By the way, for all this talk about major winter storms this year, 95% of the forecast area I have has verified successfully, which is a pretty good rate. That was verified by my own clients who I send out reviews too. You know, to see how I can improve the business. Anyway, I know that you guys don't like facts and all. But the January storm where I went low for NYC basically was dead on as was the previous February storm of a grand total of a trace for most locations. So basically we have either I have a major snow bias or a major warm bias, depending on what ever you want in your back yard and I don't agree with. Like I said, it's pretty laughable. However, I do want to make clear and hope the moderators here back this up, I do not pay people to post my thoughts here just like JB, HM, or DT. The notion of that is laughable. Hell, if that was the case I'd just come and post the whole forecast myself and save the money, probably get some new boxing gloves or something. The point is, whether you like me or hate me, I think it's pretty cheap for this forum to sponsor unfound accusations like that. I don't expect an apology but I do expect you to be mindful of such statements. Hey Steve! Nice to see you join the discussion. I haven't read anything you had to say yet on this potential storm. What are your thoughts on how this plays out?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 always dangerous when you have to rely on a storm to produce it's own cold air. Yes it is. But I have a warm bias right now because I've been saying that for days, so what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Hey Steve! Nice to see you join the discussion. I haven't read anything you had to say yet on this potential storm. What are your thoughts on how this plays out?? Basically it's either mostly rain or a miss depending on the strengthen of the Sub Tropical disturbance. Phases too late to draw in cold air and the storm as a whole is a fast mover, likely gone by Sunday afternoon or early evening. That trough in the Rockies should have been a huge warning sign with all this heavy snow nonsense days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Yes it is. But I have a warm bias right now because I've been saying that for days, so what do I know. Agree with you 100% as I noted on the last page. The antecedent cold air mass is horrible. Unless you are in the jackpot zone, forget about much in the way of accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Basically it's either mostly rain or a miss depending on the strengthen of the Sub Tropical disturbance. Phases too late to draw in cold air and the storm as a whole is a fast mover, likely gone by Sunday afternoon or early evening. That trough in the Rockies should have been a huge warning sign with all this heavy snow nonsense days ago. Even on the NW periphery of the storm? I would think there might be good snows on the NW side of the storm, albeit very wet of course. But who knows, we'll see how this plays out. Thanks for stopping by neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I always say if the 3/14/99 event could produce snow, any marginal event can, you just need to really wait til 24 hours out to really get a solid grasp of what your dynamics will be. That event it was 48/38 at 4pm and by 4am I had 8 inches of snow. The entire layer from surface to 780mb was basically 0 to -0.5C the entire time it snowed. The big problem with this may be as a few have said, phase and its too close, no phase the precip may not be heavy enough for snow or dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Agree with you 100%. The antecedent cold air mass is horrible. Unless you are in the jackpot zone, forget about much in the way of accums. It's not even that cold, temperatures on Saturday afternoon are in the damn mid 40's to lower 50's over the New York City and Philadelphia metro. The boundary layer temperatures will need a powerful adiabatic cooling event like what was seen in October for that to happen and that October storm had a FAR better 500 MB pattern to work with to create such a scenario. People comparing that storm to this need to go back and look at that 500 MB pattern over the West. The question was NEVER whether a storm would happen but whether enough lifting could be produced to lead to a snowfall. I admit tingly, and with full disclosure on the public website, admitted that I underestimated the strength of lifting. However to compare the two events as being similar is almost laughable if not straight wish casting at it's finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 yeah also it would have to come down heavy enough as well for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Even on the NW periphery of the storm? I would think there might be good snows on the NW side of the storm, albeit very wet of course. But who knows, we'll see how this plays out. Thanks for stopping by neighbor! IF the phase is just right AND the timing is there on Sunday morning then yeah, the higher elevations could be in game. The problem is that in solutions where there is enough cold air the storm is too far east and in solutions where the storm is more NW, the warm air invades too far inland and the cold air lags behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 By the way, since I posted my thoughts, do I pay myself now? Hmm, I really could use new lifting gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I always say if the 3/14/99 event could produce snow, any marginal event can, you just need to really wait til 24 hours out to really get a solid grasp of what your dynamics will be. That event it was 48/38 at 4pm and by 4am I had 8 inches of snow. The entire layer from surface to 780mb was basically 0 to -0.5C the entire time it snowed. The big problem with this may be as a few have said, phase and its too close, no phase the precip may not be heavy enough for snow or dynamic cooling. Wow that is pretty impressive! I remember that event as a youngster in Monmouth county...I kept waiting for the heavy, wet gigantic snowflakes to change to rain that night...I woke up the next day off from school with 7" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Henry put us in c-3 on his map, for once he maybe close to right Yea but he has the heavier snow in PA of course....going against all guidance again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I thought it was boxing gloves? By the way, since I posted my thoughts, do I pay myself now? Hmm, I really could use new lifting gloves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 He's the Rex Ryan jinx of weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 JB is calling for 3-6 inches in NYC and 3+ in Philly, Boston and D.C. He said that the GFS will most likely trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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