Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is going to be a long week..I am now interested in the mid week storm. The GFS will lose the coastal 3-4 times over the next several days and its going to be hard to swallow. It seems like for the weekend monster, so many things have to happen where in Last years El Nino, it was so fooking easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 This is going to be a long week..I am now interested in the mid week storm. The GFS will lose the coastal 3-4 times over the next several days and its going to be hard to swallow. It seems like for the weekend monster, so many things have to happen where in Last years El Nino, it was so fooking easy. it was NOT easy after the 12/19 event, we had a big rainstorm on Christmas and another on New Year's after an inch or so of snow then we had nothing until 1/30/10 that was NOT a fun 30 days with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 it was NOT easy after the 12/19 event, we had a big rainstorm on Christmas and another on New Year's after an inch or so of snow then we had nothing until 1/30/10 that was NOT a fun 30 days with you it was easy in when there was a threat, it always panned out to its full potential. With the STJ, models had an easy time verifying on snowstorms from 4-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Thursday event is a lock here for something-- Goes to our south and we get 3-5--or takes the NAM route and we get 1-2 then sleet and freezing ran. I'm not sold on the weekend event--- give met until Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Thursday event is a lock here for something-- Goes to our south and we get 3-5--or takes the NAM route and we get 1-2 then sleet and freezing ran. I'm not sold on the weekend event--- give met until Wednesday. I agree w/dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 The Thursday event is a lock here for something-- Goes to our south and we get 3-5--or takes the NAM route and we get 1-2 then sleet and freezing ran. I'm not sold on the weekend event--- give met until Wednesday. snowstorms in La Nina dont usually work out because they require phasing/timing which ususally dont work out for the Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS further north with precip--into DC so its trended a bit North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 GFS further north with precip--into DC so its trended a bit North Yup, it looks like a solid .08" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 still not sure about the midweek event... like the look usually in this range but a shift north may bring in temp issues and i think the pattern still supports suppression overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 still not sure about the midweek event... like the look usually in this range but a shift north may bring in temp issues and i think the pattern still supports suppression overall. Hi Debbie! What's your last name? Oh....Downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 a disaster run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 snowstorms in La Nina dont usually work out because they require phasing/timing which ususally dont work out for the Mid Atlantic Sure---and there was no way you should have been 4-9 and second in scoring , just .2 behind me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 still not sure about the midweek event... like the look usually in this range but a shift north may bring in temp issues and i think the pattern still supports suppression overall. I haven't had much time to post as I was writing a blog that should be up this afternoon. The 12Z gfs has backed off on the Dec 19th event. Both the gfs and NAm now give us light snow Thursday with the NAM giving us almost .25 and the GFS around. We have decent warm advection but not much moisture and no real upper support so I like the lighter GFS amounts for what that is worth. The 500h is so disconnected with the surface that it's hard to think we'd see much more than an inch. I don't see this as a 500h pattern that is liable to amplify much so it's probably more now of a light snow or no snow deal than a snow or rain one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 I haven't had much time to post as I was writing a blog that should be up this afternoon. The 12Z gfs has backed off on the Dec 19th event. Both the gfs and NAm now give us light snow Thursday with the NAM giving us almost .25 and the GFS around. We have decent warm advection but not much moisture and no real upper support so I like the lighter GFS amounts for what that is worth. The 500h is so disconnected with the surface that it's hard to think we'd see much more than an inch. I don't see this as a 500h pattern that is liable to amplify much so it's probably more now of a light snow or no snow deal than a snow or rain one. i like you much better in an El Nino:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 In la ninas it's much harder to forecast events until they're real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 does a warm January still look likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 it was NOT easy after the 12/19 event, we had a big rainstorm on Christmas and another on New Year's after an inch or so of snow then we had nothing until 1/30/10 that was NOT a fun 30 days with you That horrendous rain deluge on Christmas Night 2009 was the absolute WORST Christmas present EVER!! But, mother nature redeemed herself in February with all that wonderful snow!!! I was in heaven with all the snow I ever wanted to shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That horrendous rain deluge on Christmas Night 2009 was the absolute WORST Christmas present EVER!! But, mother nature redeemed herself in February with all that wonderful snow!!! I was in heaven with all the snow I ever wanted to shovel. Yep, that pretty much wiped the snowcover out here for weeks. I will say how sweet it was to get that surprise 9 inch snow on 1/30/10. It was 16 deg through most of the event and felt like Colorado powder. Maybe this Thursday, other surprises are in store. Similar setup, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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