ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 TUL MON 06Z 13-FEB 2.9 -3.3 1022 47 100 0.01 560 543 MON 12Z 13-FEB 0.9 -2.4 1018 81 80 0.08 556 542 MON 18Z 13-FEB 1.5 -0.4 1014 91 100 0.11 552 541 TUE 00Z 14-FEB 1.9 -0.6 1010 96 67 0.08 548 540 TUE 06Z 14-FEB 2.4 -1.2 1012 98 61 0.01 551 542 Thank you so much!!! Now, if you could just tell me which numbers I should be looking at:) The 2.9? 3.3? or .01? LOL, I'm not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thank you so much!!! Now, if you could just tell me which numbers I should be looking at:) The 2.9? 3.3? or .01? LOL, I'm not a met. The 2.9, -3.3 are the temp and dewpoint in degrees Celsius. The 1022 is the pressure in millibars. The 47, I believe represents the percentage of cloud cover. The 560 and 543 represent the maximum and minimum thickness values. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thank you so much!!! Now, if you could just tell me which numbers I should be looking at:) The 2.9? 3.3? or .01? LOL, I'm not a met. 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 C C (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 2.9, -3.3 are the temp and dewpoint in degrees Celsius. The 1022 is the pressure in millibars. The 47, I believe represents the percentage of cloud cover. The 560 and 543 represent the maximum and minimum thickness values. Hope this helps. I appreciate it, thank you. BTW, the NWS Tulsa just mentioned this, and frankly, I'm a little bothered by the "freezing rain/sleet" scenario they are referring to. YUCK! EXTENDED DISCUSSION... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE VARIED. THUS A DEFINITIVE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION TYPE...OR TYPES...IS UNWISE AT THIS TIME. A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGEST POSSIBLE SNOW OR SLEET NORTH NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND RAIN SOUTH... WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CENTRAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD STRONGLY SUGGEST ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MATERIALIZE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT IN DURATION...MAYBE AROUND SIX HOURS OR LESS BEFORE A TRANSITION TO JUST RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 C C (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK Awesome. Thank you for that. I was not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 18Z GFS is really wanting to make primarily sleet/freezing rain event from 1-40 North to the border of Kansas. Around the border of KS/OK is where it would be primarily snow. This is not good!!! The system slowed down and would not come into my area until temps have warmed up during the day on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, we'll see.. There will be changes as we get closer to the event. Hoping it goes colder.... The precip really ramped up on the 18z. I saw Tulsa note that not many snow events happen with a southerly wind. FYI, Beau posted that the NWS will be testing out tiered severe warnings. Looks like Wichita, Springfield, Topeka, KC, and St. Louis will be participating in the test. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32568-tiered-warnings-coming/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 You know it's been a pretty terrible winter when you are hoping for snow even though it will more than likely melt off pretty quickly or change to rain. I've seen more fantasy snowstorms on the GFS during the last 2-3 day than I have on all the models this entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A mostly rain event is what I have been fearing the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 A mostly rain event is what I have been fearing the last few days. Any reason why you believe it will be a mostly rain event? Not trying to be mean or anything, but I'm just curious why you say that, is it a 'gut' feeling or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It seems like the models have over done the cold all winter and closer to the event they progressively warm plus I think this storm will slow down more and come through when the temps are warmer. I hope im wrong I want a good snow. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It seems like the models have over done the cold all winter and closer to the event they progressively warm plus I think this storm will slow down more and come through when the temps are warmer. I hope im wrong I want a good snow. =) Well, you may be right. We'll be dealing with an airmass that has been around a day or two and the sun angle is increasing this time of year. I hope it comes in colder closer to the event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Winter Weather advisory south of Wichita for tonight. 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well JoMo or Doug anyone got any idea of what the Sunday night To Tues time frame hold for us and any ice accums or duration of that stuff we may encounter ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Well JoMo or Doug anyone got any idea of what the Sunday night To Tues time frame hold for us and any ice accums or duration of that stuff we may encounter ???? Accumulations are difficult to say currently as well as precip type. It would be nice to have Springfield's dual-pol upgrade complete so it would be easier to determine precip type but the radar will be down starting tomorrow for a week to week and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z NAM is colder/faster with the upcoming airmass at the start, also a bit colder at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Im happy to get snow but im glad its not a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 NAM at extreme range has more snow then ive seen this winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 00z GFS is coming in colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Local met from KNWA jumping on the latest model bandwagon. Thinks NWS will issue an Advisory or Winter Storm Watch by the weekend. Calling for 2-4 inches in NW Ark. I'm with WeatherMatrix. I'm not sold on the cold air sticking around. These WAA situations tend to warm the lower layer just enough to piss us all off. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS eeking closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Me doth like what thou seest on thy models. I agree the WAA concerns me, too, but the weather has to be our side for once this winter, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 GFS starting to listen to the euros tune maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think on any normal winter season, we wouldn't be analyzing a trace-4in system. Anyhow, glad to see the GFS going colder...would really like for some of the best precip to come back towards Tulsa, but whatever...I'll take my 1in and be content. Problem is I will just want more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Am I reading the GFS right? It is putting out 1" of snow across far SW MO overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I think on any normal winter season, we wouldn't be analyzing a trace-4in system. Anyhow, glad to see the GFS going colder...would really like for some of the best precip to come back towards Tulsa, but whatever...I'll take my 1in and be content. Problem is I will just want more Oh no, we still would be, lol.. It's not like we get a lot of snow. Based on the B&W charts the 00z GGEM probably came in pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Am I reading the GFS right? It is putting out 1" of snow across far SW MO overnight? I'm not seeing that. Oh, you're looking at twisterdata... Not sure what the deal is with that, must be some sort of error since the surface temps never fall below mid-30's The instantweathermaps map doesn't show any snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I'm not seeing that. Oh, you're looking at twisterdata... Not sure what the deal is with that, must be some sort of error since the surface temps never fall below mid-30's The instantweathermaps map doesn't show any snow tonight. I must have missed a memo. The twisterdata stuff is not accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 I must have missed a memo. The twisterdata stuff is not accurate? okie found an error. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/27419-twisterdata-snow-depth-maps-major-error/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 okie found an error. http://www.americanw...ps-major-error/ Thanks. I didn't think that looked right. Glad I have it all straightened out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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