ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Ugh...just saw that!!! Looked like the NE Blizzard of last weekend all over!!! I don't understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 Im not biting on this storm at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 The 18Z GFS appears to be an outlier right now. The Euro/Canadian/UKmet all have the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 7, 2012 Share Posted February 7, 2012 It doesn't appear to be an ice event which is good :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Still have a major system in the 192+ hr time frame in the latest runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 00z GFS is pointing towards more of a snow to rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man the 00z GFS is active.. As modeled... System #1.. Snow to rain. System #2... Rain System #3 Rain to Snow (in mainly N OK and MO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man this is shaky ground we're treading on with these systems. Temps are so critical, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Man this is shaky ground we're treading on with these systems. Temps are so critical, as usual. Yes, that's going to be a problem. The air itself should be of a polar variety so the models may not be cold enough and may try to move it out too quickly. But... there is not a lot of snow on the ground to the north so the airmass will modify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This looks rather ominous (as well as being yet another GFS run with a potential big system in the 192 hr+ period): What is more concerning is the huge reservoir of 65-70+ degree dews just waiting to be pulled northward in front of this system should it eject as a consolidated trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 00z Euro is still cold enough for snow through 144 for all of the area. Although the thicknesses may indicate some warmer air somewhere which may produce a mix, not sure since it's the Euro. It's actually cooling the 850 MB level and keeping the cold air trapped at the surface as well. This may be indicating a lot of lift with the system. It's also showing the 'convective' nature at times which may mean there is instability somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Im not buying into this as a winter weather prouducer looks more like t-storms!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The 12Z GFS is saying the Sunday/Monday timeframe will be simply a VERY cold rain. Let's see what the Euro says. It would be really nice to have some agreement (for it to be colder) between the models:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 The 12Z GFS is saying the Sunday/Monday timeframe will be simply a VERY cold rain. Let's see what the Euro says. It would be really nice to have some agreement (for it to be colder) between the models:) yeah it came in a bit warmer on the 06z as well. So frustrating, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What is making the GFS think it's going to be warmer, and why does the Euro think it's going to be colder?? What are they each seeing that the other doesn't? And is one better than the other at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 What is making the GFS think it's going to be warmer, and why does the Euro think it's going to be colder?? What are they each seeing that the other doesn't? And is one better than the other at this range? There are probably multiple factors. The one thing that jumps out is the 12z GFS has a surface low feature, while the 00z Euro did not. The cold high pressure was stronger on the Euro indicating a colder airmass. Euro is king at Day 5-6 range. I'm not sure about a cold or warm bias in the longer ranges this year. It's also possible the GFS is eroding the cold air away too quickly, models try to get rid of arctic airmasses too quickly at times. The 12z GFS ensembles at 126 show many colder than the OP at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Euro is probably going to come in a little warmer as well. That is a raging 850 MB jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 I think what we are going to see is that each model run will trend warmer and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 That very much may be right. It still looks good for a Snow to rain situation though. Of course we are still days away and if the models keep warming it up... blech. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Just what we need more cold rain. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 You can see the large differences between the GFS and Euro at 120 on the 850 MB level. GFS.. 0 degree line up to N Missouri Euro.. 0 degree line chilling in central arkansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 18z GFS looked really active still. Also, Springfields radar will be taken down early, on Fri, Feb 10th for the dual pol upgrade and be down 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 8, 2012 Author Share Posted February 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 lol yeah I saw that, lock it in! I'm just wishing for some snow before it turns to rain with the system in a few days. We probably still have until mid-March to get some snow or one of those big snowstorms that we sometimes see in the first week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMatrix Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 This system will be mostly cold rain and plenty of it. :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 lol yeah I saw that, lock it in! I'm just wishing for some snow before it turns to rain with the system in a few days. We probably still have until mid-March to get some snow or one of those big snowstorms that we sometimes see in the first week of March. Im hoping for something also man, really I am this has been so drab and boring! This week coming up sounds and could be interesting though? Maybe we will get lucky, we shall see in time huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Tulsa increased snow amounts a bit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still a bit early but history shows the I-44 line could make a snow event or ice storm. Got to say Okie333 the snow would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Still a bit early but history shows the I-44 line could make a snow event or ice storm. Got to say Okie333 the snow would be much better. agreed 413% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Not a whole lot of difference in the 12, 18, 00z NAM today in the longer range. NAM is getting cooler with the little system moving across on Fridayish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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