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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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Yea I noticed springfield saying something about monday night in their disco. Im not into that show at all but I do want to see that episode for sure.

yeah I haven't watched it in a few years, got burnt out on it since it was pretty much the same thing episode after episode. I do want to watch the Joplin episode though.

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Well we still have Roger Smith's forecast. He has been spot on this year and is calling for a colder Feb into March.

I think he's looking at mostly the eastern US though.

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I think he's looking at mostly the eastern US though.

But he dd mention a storm track that runs from MO-MI now to one that drops further S with time. Hopefully that would mean colder air and a better storm track for us here as well.

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The expected "coldest night of the year" surprisingly underperformed, and I am not sure how that happened. The forecasted low was 12 and typically in my valley location, a clear, still night, reduces the temperature another 3-5 degrees. After sunset, the temp was 22 and rose to 25 by midnight and then only dipped to 19, despite a dew point of 8. There were some high clouds at dawn, but no wind to speak of overnight. Any ideas what happened?

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The expected "coldest night of the year" surprisingly underperformed, and I am not sure how that happened. The forecasted low was 12 and typically in my valley location, a clear, still night, reduces the temperature another 3-5 degrees. After sunset, the temp was 22 and rose to 25 by midnight and then only dipped to 19, despite a dew point of 8. There were some high clouds at dawn, but no wind to speak of overnight. Any ideas what happened?

It's just Mother Nature kicking us while we're down. Another shot in the crotch.

How is that for a poor attitude?

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EMHE TONIGHT!

Well the 12z GFS wasn't completely terrible, but the flow remains really progressive and we still have the issue of the systems wanting to deepen in the northwest which will flood the US with Pacific air. It would be cold enough for one of these systems to produce snow should it somehow find a way to wrap up, but with the flow this progressive and the wavelengths so short, it may have trouble doing that.

EDIT: 12z Euro was a nightmare though.

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Extreme Makeover Home Edition was awesome. Looks like a lot of people cried through the entire episode from what I'm seeing on twitter and Facebook.

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I finally watched the episode this morning. It turned out really good. I didn't want to miss it after witnessing the devastation a few days after it hit. It was a unreal sight. Something I will never forget. I was heading to my lake house in Camdenton,MO 3 days after it hit. We stopped there to donate some goods at this one church and take a few pictures of the damage around the destroyed gas station area that was featured in the youtube video.

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00z Euro tonight painted an interesting picture, no precip maps but it looks like it wants to bring a system through on the 216 and 240 panel. It's a closed bowling ball type of system.

usaprmslmsl216w.gif

Cold air pouring in behind it:

usatmp850mb240.gif

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12z GFS and Euro have a system, which leads one to believe there will be one.

The GFS takes the system mostly south of us, but temps are only marginal for anything frozen and mostly in KS/MO

usavrthgtgrd500mb216.gif

The 12z Euro takes it out to our west this run. There may be some severe weather associated if it were to come out like this.

usahgt500mb216k.gif

Looks like it's somewhat cutoff since it only makes it from W KS to SE KS in 24 hours

usahgt500mb240.gif

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00z GFS changed a lot from the 12z run, with phasing taking place and a major trough setting up across the area, somewhat similar to the Euro, except more of an open wave at H5. As JoMo said, svr potential does seem apparent if anything close to these runs comes into fruition...

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SPC is monitoring the region this morning for a potential upgrade to slight risk. I think we may need to monitor this afternoon into the evening for severe weather potential. It kind of has that "feel" outside today. I know, I know... very scientific, but historically, winter severe weather events aren't handled as well by the SPC.

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Don't really think there will be too much severe tonight, and it will probably be elevated hailers.

12z GFS does worry me in the 168-192 range though

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It is 71 degrees here. The wind is howling like nuts too. 4029 mets think some of us could hit 80 degrees possibly on Saturday. Wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing flowers pop up soon. :lol:

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Probably a fluke but the 18z GFS showed a better pattern in the longer range I believe. Still worried about that storm in about a week as it cranks up. Hope it goes to the south of us and gives us a big snowstorm, lol

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Probably a fluke but the 18z GFS showed a better pattern in the longer range I believe. Still worried about that storm in about a week as it cranks up. Hope it goes to the south of us and gives us a big snowstorm, lol

Probly is a fluke....I dont buy it sorry lol! Hell we were thinking this pattern change would happen by now but, well just go outside and you know what I mean haha......this has been the oddest winter ever, yep Im down in the dumps cant you tell?

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yes it is, but it's still days away so it will probably change. There's a signal for a big system in both the GFS and Euro though, just not sure about the details.

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Anyone think we'll get some severe tonight?

00z GFS will have Pacific recon flight data tonight.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

1108 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

NORTHERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.

* AT 1106 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR HUMANSVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF STOCKTON...

MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE COLLINS...CROSS TIMBERS...DUNNEGAN...

ELKTON...FLEMINGTON...HERMITAGE...HUMANSVILLE...NEMO...PITTSBURG...

POLK...PRESTON...WEAUBLEAU AND WHEATLAND.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE POMME DE TERRE LAKE AND TRUMAN

LAKE.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

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