JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And the 00z Canadian for comparison (Just through the first storm): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z Euro has a lead wave that shears out across OK on Feb 2nd. This lead wave produces generally light frozen precip across the area. Heaviest would be across much of OK. Next up comes the Feb 4th storm. This is quite a change...... This run the energy is not very well consolidated and actually shears out. It doesn't produce much of an area of low pressure but it is much colder across the area. The entire state of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Most of Kansas and most of Missouri sees light-moderate frozen precip between these two systems. Generally 2-6" on the "snow" map. Large low forms near the Canadian/North Dakota border and energy slips in under that to produce an overrunning situation with SW flow by the end of the run which is the evening of Feb 6th. Wow, what a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 00z Euro has a lead wave that shears out across OK on Feb 2nd. This lead wave produces generally light frozen precip across the area. Heaviest would be across much of OK. Next up comes the Feb 4th storm. This is quite a change...... This run the energy is not very well consolidated and actually shears out. It doesn't produce much of an area of low pressure but it is much colder across the area. The entire state of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Most of Kansas and most of Missouri sees light-moderate frozen precip between these two systems. Generally 2-6" on the "snow" map. Large low forms near the Canadian/North Dakota border and energy slips in under that to produce an overrunning situation with SW flow by the end of the run which is the evening of Feb 6th. Wow, what a change! Either way it goes, sounds very promising at this point. GFS will probably do its usual thing again tomorrow (2 runs to the south, 2 runs to the north) and it sounds like the euro and Canadian are repeating a lot day to day, so I like what I see so far! It is promising in that it is something that was "seen" from more than 300 hours away and it hasn't really changed much since. Last time things were this consistent that far away, we got nailed so bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Either way it goes, sounds very promising at this point. GFS will probably do its usual thing again tomorrow (2 runs to the south, 2 runs to the north) and it sounds like the euro and Canadian are repeating a lot day to day, so I like what I see so far! It is promising in that it is something that was "seen" from more than 300 hours away and it hasn't really changed much since. Last time things were this consistent that far away, we got nailed so bring it on! It's definitely a big change. I mean, all of Arkansas/Oklahoma gets frozen precip since the storm doesn't wrap up and pull in warmer air. The difference between the 12z and 00z is nuts. Even the difference between the Euro and the other 00z models makes me think the Euro might have had a bad run. I am curious what happens after 240 on this run though, It looks like it could be a prolonged precip event since the precip increased from 234-240 over OK. I think I posted about a 'dream run' a few days ago that the Euro control had. It looks like that, only with less frozen precip (so far out to 240). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wish this would come remotely true. I'd like one order of bottom left, please. The top left panel looks like what the 00z Euro control is showing snowfall wise. Oh you mean this. :-) I will have the bottom left as well. Just a hair further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nah that's the CFS v2. This was a control run of the Euro that went bonkers. I think the precip in our area would be snow on the 00z Euro. That's just basing it off 850 MB temps which are below freezing. Even you only get up to -3 C after the precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yup. Should have read it. Lol. Either way, I think they've all got a pretty good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band of snow flurries passing by right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Nice band of snow flurries passing by right now... I was kind of shocked there wasn't more talk of this. We picked up a quick inch here on the north side of OKC overnight. With the cold temperatures, all roads were snow-covered and pretty darn awful early this morning. Things are quickly improving, but the morning rush was a bit dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z Euro is coming in different with the Feb 4th storm as a 1002 MB low tracks across SE Arkansas. It produces 'snow' across much of OK except the very far SE. The SE 1/4 of Kansas gets 'snow'. The SE 3/4 of Missouri and the northern half of Arkansas get 'snow' as well. Different solution than last night with heavier snow. Also going to be a different solution in the 8-10 day period with a trough over the SW and through 240 it keeps much of the snow and frozen precip confined to deep south Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If Doug's Heady Pattern is accurate it sounds like next week, including 8-10 days out, could be a repeat of early December. What do you all think of his Pattern theory? Is there merit to it? He sure seems to be onto something but I've never heard any other mets with similar thoughts. EDIT: JoMo, any update on the Canadian? Can you post the WxBell maps like you did yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 So we're still all over the board with solutions. Stay tuned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If Doug's Heady Pattern is accurate it sounds like next week, including 8-10 days out, could be a repeat of early December. What do you all think of his Pattern theory? Is there merit to it? He sure seems to be onto something but I've never heard any other mets with similar thoughts. EDIT: JoMo, any update on the Canadian? Can you post the WxBell maps like you did yesterday? Doug's pattern is interesting and he's still trying to figure it out himself since he thinks the cycle length changes due to pacific SST's. There does seem to be some kind of repetition that happens. The overall 500 MB setup (high pressure in the pacific extending to the arctic) is much like what we saw in December so a similar outcome is possible. The Canadian wasn't too exciting as it had about 2-3" of 'snow' in SW MO and SE KS with <2 in NE OK and only a little bit in NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It is both amazing... and a little depressing... watching the Gulf Coast from Houston to New Orleans to <gasp> Pensacola cashing in on this pattern while we alternate between cold, dry days and mild, dry days (with the occasional seasonable, dry day thrown in). I have no other point. I am just fascinated with how far south the winter weather is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 And of course the 12z control run has a SE OK through central Arkansas storm with this area getting some light snow flurries maybe.... lol..... All over the place. Better ride the GFS since it has been more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Wow all this cold air to waste as usual so far, Im disgusted lol! And jelous about the cash ins for the deep south areas! I tell you this has been one weird weird winter so far! Warm or really cold, maybe next week? Sunday into monday's forecast is all over the place and constantly changing, no shocker there though either haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 18z GFS is quite the mess... freezing rain to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Wow. Now looks like a damaging ice storm with 2.5-5 inches of snow for me. That would be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GFS has a wave on Feb 2nd now that it says produces a narrow band of snow. Run still going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 And this is for both the Feb 2nd and Feb 4-5th events from the 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nice. Snow on super Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z GGEM is back to being insane after having a relatively uneventful 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 00z Euro does have a bit more precip with the wave that passes by on the 1st. Mainly for KS/MO. Euro also has the stronger wave shown on the GFS on Feb 2nd, but it passes farther south than the GFS had it. Generally along and south of I-44 in OK and MO... and NW AR gets in on this stripe of 'snow' as well which produces a general 2-4" on the map. The Feb 4th storm is buried in Mexico as a cutoff before it moves east and delivers a big winter storm to Texas, southern 1/2 of OK, and the southern 3/4 of Arkansas (25" of 'snow" in SE Arkansas, lol) as another upper low digs down west of Baja. From there it's kind of a mess and I have no idea what's going to happen with that mess.... although it looks like the southern end of it may push northeast and more precip develops north of the front across the TX Panhandle and western OK at the end of the run which is the evening of Feb 7th. Overall, it looks active, and is subject to change a great deal. EDIT: The 00z Euro control run kind of split the difference between the southern Euro and the more northern GGEM solution. Would be a big hit south of I-44 and especially NW Arkansas as well as much of Arkansas and eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 TSA is really amping up the wording for next week's events. They do a great job forecasting usually and so when they are going as gung ho this early, it causes my ears to perk up. I think we have a week of watching, beginning on Sunday. Looks like the weather is going to make up for the recent dry/boring pattern. Look forward to discussing it with you all in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 TSA is really amping up the wording for next week's events. They do a great job forecasting usually and so when they are going as gung ho this early, it causes my ears to perk up. I think we have a week of watching, beginning on Sunday. Looks like the weather is going to make up for the recent dry/boring pattern. Look forward to discussing it with you all in the days ahead. Hey 24/7 good to see you back on here. Was wondering when we'd hear from you again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS is trending away from any big storm idea for early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This might just be the GFS losing it. The GGEM still has it. Have to see what the rather inconsistent Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 From all accounts the 12z Canadian still looks like a moderate system. I don't have the precip maps but placement of the features and zero line look good. Still a ways to go on this one. Coming into a pattern change like this models are going to defin struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Euro does have me a bit worried. Maybe we're just not in its reliable zone yet but it has been jumping around quite a bit. The trend has been south though with the dominant northern branch in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 From all accounts the 12z Canadian still looks like a moderate system. I don't have the precip maps but placement of the features and zero line look good. Still a ways to go on this one. Coming into a pattern change like this models are going to defin struggle. Can't post the map now, but still 6+ inches from SE KS, NE OK, SW MO (more the farther east you go) and extreme NW AR. The GGEM doesn't have the Feb 2nd system like the GFS which lays down a pretty intense band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.