JoMo Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 JoMo, what's the latest good news from the Euro and the Ensembles? It's going to get colder. The cold may be more east based with less cold the farther SW you go. There's ensemble support for the cold coming in two waves, with the second one being a bit farther west. The 00z Ensemble is warming it back up towards the end of the month due to the PV moving off to the NE again and a pretty strong system moving through the Gulf of Alaska. Been kind of flip-floppy here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Critical fire weather days today and tomorrow for OKC & NW today and OKC & SW tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It's boring, I feel like we are in the middle of summer or something with the lack of precipitation. I don't feel like any model has a firm grasp on what's going to happen since they look different each run. The Euro still has most of the cold over the Great Lakes and Northeast that moves off to the NE. The ensemble mean doesn't get too warm though. It's still showing a trough developing in the west towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yah at this point not looking good long range per models. But we need to remember the repeating pattern and hopefully february will start looking more like december. I have faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yah at this point not looking good long range per models. But we need to remember the repeating pattern and hopefully february will start looking more like december. I have faith. yeah, I've been able to pick up the pattern all winter and know what to expect, but I'm really not certain what will happen after the next couple of cool downs since the GFS is all over the place and the Euro has not been much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 As sad as it will make me, I'm almost tempted to say we are going to have a short lived winter and a long severe storm season after looking at things a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 As sad as it will make me, I'm almost tempted to say we are going to have a short lived winter and a long severe storm season after looking at things a little bit. Would not surprise me at all with the way these temperatures have been! I have seen some warmth in winter but never anything like this lol. It was almost 63 here today, how crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It looks like things are going to shift back to the west coast trough look. That could put us in a much better spot for storm systems and snow, depending on how far west the trough is. Last night's CFS V2 was well below normal for much of Canada and the US when it came to temps for the month of Feb. The 00z Euro ensembles had the trough with the ridge redeveloping off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, it better hurry and do something. Lol. I'm sweating today. Not cool in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, it better hurry and do something. Lol. I'm sweating today. Not cool in January! Enjoy it today since tomorrow will be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Enjoy it today since tomorrow will be colder. Yeah. I saw that. I work in the elements so when its been cold for 2 months and switches suddenly to 60s it is hard for me to adjust to heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I get the feeling that it could go either way. The 12z Euro control run and the ensemble are pretty far apart with the control run torching the long range and the ensemble being closer to neutral. That probably means there are members that are torchy and members that are frigid. The ensemble is wanting to get rid of the storminess off the west coast much faster as well. It's basically a coin flip if the storminess sticks around or if it gives way to high pressure. We would obviously want option 2 if we want it colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Last night's Euro Weeklies keeps the western trough locked in almost all of Feb (the run ends around Feb 20th) once the trough develops. Hopefully we will end up in the cold air and we can get some storm systems passing to our south to deliver us a snowy Feb, which is our snowiest month of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Last night's Euro Weeklies keeps the western trough locked in almost all of Feb (the run ends around Feb 20th) once the trough develops. Hopefully we will end up in the cold air and we can get some storm systems passing to our south to deliver us a snowy Feb, which is our snowiest month of the year.Yes and the later frames of the 0z GFS looked much better as well so still a lot of hope for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am not one to complain about a couple of 60+ F days in January like we had Saturday and Sunday, but we really need some weather to start happening. I am watching my old hometown (in Southern New Jersey) get buried today and I have to admit it is bumming me out to see nothing but sunny skies for us for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yes and the later frames of the 0z GFS looked much better as well so still a lot of hope for Feb. The 12z Euro has went back to colder in the 8-10 day range, the 00z was 'torching' the Plains... So there's large changes from run to run so it's difficult to determine what's really going to happen. I'm curious to see the 12z control run and the Ensembles though in about an hour since it looks like there's a system about ready to drop into the SW at the end of the 12z Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And the 12z GFS changes its mind and delays any good pattern change a bit longer again. So many changes but still time for a rockin February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We seem to be stuck in the proverbial 10-15 days out snowstorm. Maybe it's just me but it seems like the GFSkeeps showing snow every few runs but every time it's at 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am not one to complain about a couple of 60+ F days in January like we had Saturday and Sunday, but we really need some weather to start happening. I am watching my old hometown (in Southern New Jersey) get buried today and I have to admit it is bumming me out to see nothing but sunny skies for us for the foreseeable future. Man I know, my mom called me and mentioned they have a warning up for 6-10". She said that will most likely be a low number cause they had or still have this special statement out in cumberland county for a dangerous heavy snowband producing 2" an hour or more!!! Crazy, I truly miss them east coast snow storms! The snow there is really different then the snow that falls out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12z Euro Ensemble (Day 11-15) is still going with the trough shifting to the western US, so I think that's pretty much what's going to happen. This will put us in a better position for storm systems and frozen precipitation as we go into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good news JoMo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I hope it doesn't change, but you never know. This was the 12z run of the CFS v2 for Feb. Looks familiar to Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The weather does look to get active in about a week or so, but will it be cold enough is gonna be the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Man I know, my mom called me and mentioned they have a warning up for 6-10". She said that will most likely be a low number cause they had or still have this special statement out in cumberland county for a dangerous heavy snowband producing 2" an hour or more!!! Crazy, I truly miss them east coast snow storms! The snow there is really different then the snow that falls out here. Yeah, my mom sent me video of the snow in her backyard this morning. She got 12" on the nose and the temperature was something like 4 F. I am beyond jealous. I only relocated permanently this past June so this is the first time New Jersey got a storm without us having gotten some kind of frozen precip in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I am not one to complain about a couple of 60+ F days in January like we had Saturday and Sunday, but we really need some weather to start happening. I am watching my old hometown (in Southern New Jersey) get buried today and I have to admit it is bumming me out to see nothing but sunny skies for us for the foreseeable future. Regardless of temperature, we're already starting down the late winter/spring drought path we've endured every year since 2011 now. I'd take widespread southern Plains precipitation in any form at any temperature from here on out. Very frustrating, given we were doing relatively well up until late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Fantasy snow showing up on the 12z Euro ensemble control run in the long range. No real change to the earlier thinking, west coast troughing looks to happen, that should dump cold air down the Plains for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I wish this would come remotely true. I'd like one order of bottom left, please. The top left panel looks like what the 00z Euro control is showing snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm starting to get more encouraged about the upcoming Feb period. The GFS/EURO have the -EPO strongly negative (off the chart) This is the GFS for the next 8 days. The black triangles are the newest runs, and it also has the last 3 runs on there as well. The gray circles are older runs so you can see the trend is for a lower EPO than earlier. The 12z Euro ensemble is consistently cold after about the 27th. There might be less intensity to the cold around the 1st or 2nd ahead of the next cold front which makes things very cold through Feb 7th, which is the end of the run. The control run has KS/MO/OK/AR all covered in snow (maybe not far SW OK) at some point through Feb 7th. Generally a west coast to central US trough, with a west coast trough redeveloping by the end of the run. Strong!!! ridge near Alaska with ridging extending into the Arctic. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Awesome man keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You left AR out of your covered in snow list above. I'm hoping that was just an oversight on your part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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