12z euro rapid fire updates

[mdsnowlover]

Looks like JB's big countrywide white Christmas could be in trouble. Besides some flurries and snow showers, there looks to be nothing of significance anytime soon after this upcoming storm passes, and even if there was, it would probably be another rainstorm due to the unfavorable pattern we're in.

raleighwx seems to think a chance of over running precitp by next weekend, a bit far away, but he's a met. However this may just be to far out too.

[tombo82685]

hr 222 has a storm building in the south

[tombo82685]

hr 228 has a sub 1008 low over nw louisiana

[Feb]

Looks like JB's big countrywide white Christmas could be in trouble. Besides some flurries and snow showers, there looks to be nothing of significance anytime soon after this upcoming storm passes, and even if there was, it would probably be another rainstorm due to the unfavorable pattern we're in.

Posts like this are not need imo. We have a storm 5 days away and the models are about 1000 miles apart on and you write off the next two and a half weeks already. You are very unreadable in the Philly forum, don't spread your gloom to the general forum.

[Absolute Humidity]

Euro hasn't budged. GFS is trash, throw it out.

Last night's EC was very very similar to today 12Z GFS - its budged alot.

[usedtobe]

..Tell me about it.

If you factor in a se bias with the gfs at this range, consider that the euro has waffled the past 3 runs and is furthest west then the ukmet and what not, I'd definitely agree that somewhere near the middle of the 12z gfs/euro is most likely at this point. Even that solution would take out the small hope of changing to brief snow on the backend for the big cities.

I noticed a typo but elsewhere have noted that the GFS in the past has sometimes had the tendency to track the low to far south and east when a pattern is amplifying rapidly. The dec 19th and the case at the end of Jan. I'd probably play something in between if I had to make a forecast since then you can edge things towards whichever solution is correct. The one caveat about the euro is in the longer ranges this year it has seemed to sometimes over-amplify the pattern but this is getting into the time range where it is pretty good as a rule.

[mdsnowlover]

Exactly. These Lakes Cutters I feel will be the season norm. We'd all better get used to it.

yes, your right, I,m jut waiting for the rain. It was advertised enough during the fall that this pattern would happen. Its kinda of interesting to see how the models handle this first real chance for snow, but reality dictates it will be rain in the east. Anything else is just wishcaasting.

[tombo82685]

hr 234 has a sub 1008 low over east central arkansas

[tombo82685]

hr 240 has a sub 1004 low over eastern tenn

[mdsnowlover]

hr 234 has a sub 1008 low over east central arkansas

is there any indication of an over running event in the euro today???

[tombo82685]

is there any indication of an over running event in the euro today???

no, it looks more like a storm would cut to the lakes then develop a 2ndry, there is still a good block, but this means nothing its 240hrs awy and we can't figure whats going to happen 100 hrs awy

[NJwinter23]

I noticed a typo but elsewhere have noted that the GFS in the past has sometimes had the tendency to track the low to far south and east when a pattern is amplifying rapidly. The dec 19th and the case at the end of Jan. I'd probably play something in between if I had to make a forecast since then you can edge things towards whichever solution is correct. The one caveat about the euro is in the longer ranges this year it has seemed to sometimes over-amplify the pattern but this is getting into the time range where it is pretty good as a rule.

Great stuff. Thanks.

[Absolute Humidity]

Did the receint GFS upgrades address its historical South East bias issue?

[SACRUS]

hr 240 has a sub 1004 low over eastern tenn

gfs has system in similar location which tracks off the carolinas and ots (240 -264)

[mdsnowlover]

gfs has system in similar location which tracks off the carolinas and ots (240 -264)

thanks Mr. Sacrus. Rather far out I admit but it was mentioned by another met.

[tombo82685]

gfs has system in similar location which tracks off the carolinas and ots (240 -264)

just looking at the euro depiction though the low is already very negative tilted, the 850s run from nyc then along i80, but the frz line is all the way down in nc, low level cold air

[EasternUSWX]

just looking at the euro depiction though the low is already very negative tilted, the 850s run from nyc then along i80, but the frz line is all the way down in nc, low level cold air

I have a feeling it might be over doing the phasing. It's crazy that we have the highest scoring model most west, second highest most east. And then GFS/GGEM in between.

[SACRUS]

just looking at the euro depiction though the low is already very negative tilted, the 850s run from nyc then along i80, but the frz line is all the way down in nc, low level cold air

far out but i suspect this will be the next threat of interest aside from the flurries and squalls next week. This kind of deep cold has a tendency to linger a bit once entrenched. Its good to see the system on guidance.

[SACRUS]

thanks Mr. Sacrus. Rather far out I admit but it was mentioned by another met.

Didnt see it but still worth mentioning as I saw some comments that there were no systems/threats in the longer range once passed next week.

Tony

[hudsonvalley21]

HPC's thoughts.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

148 PM EST WED DEC 08 2010

VALID 12Z SAT DEC 11 2010 - 12Z WED DEC 15 2010

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GRADUALLY IMPROVING

AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM

EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST SAT ONWARD.

FOR THE DAYS 3-5 SAT-MON PORTION OF THE FCST THE 00Z ECMWF HAS

ADJUSTED ITS TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SWD FROM A NUMBER OF

PREVIOUS RUNS TO BRING IT INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS.

THE 00Z CANADIAN RUN AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CLUSTER FAIRLY

WELL WITH THE GFS/ECMWF. THE 00Z UKMET/GEFS MEAN TRACK THE SFC

LOW FARTHER SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN

ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW HAS THE FARTHEST NWD TRACK. THUS FAR A

CONSENSUS/INTERMEDIATE TRACK HAS ULTIMATELY MAINTAINED DECENT

CONTINUITY SO THE GFS/ECMWF CLUSTER APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION

AT THIS TIME. THIS SFC LOW IS FCST TO BE URGED ALONG BY A DEEP

BUT OPEN TROF ALOFT... WITH SOME MID LVL HGT ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO

REACH AT LEAST 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL IN THE SRN PART

OF THE TROF LATE SUN THRU MON. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD

MOST SOLNS EXPECT AN UPR LOW TO CLOSE OFF OVER/NEAR THE NORTHEAST.

THIS EVOLUTION WOULD MAINTAIN OR RE-DEVELOP SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF

THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

FARTHER WWD A BROAD TROF OVER THE NERN PAC WILL MAKE ONLY GRADUAL

EWD PROGRESS AS A STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS WRN NOAM.

A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND SLOW ECMWF APPEARS BEST TO

RESOLVE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE WARM FRONT AFFECTING THE NRN HALF OF

THE WEST COAST ON DAY 3 SAT. THE GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEANS

AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT THE SFC COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROF

ALOFT SHOULD ENTER THE WEST BY DAY 6 TUE.

THE DAYS 3-7 FCST USES VARIOUS PROPORTIONS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/12Z

ECMWF MEAN THRU THE PERIOD. DAY 3 SAT AND TO A LESSER EXTENT DAYS

4-5 SUN-MON LEAN MORE TOWARD THE OPERATIONAL DETAILS OF THE

GFS/ECMWF... WHICH IN ADDITION TO DEPICTING THE MOST AGREEABLE

SOLN CLUSTER OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS ALSO PROVIDE THE DESIRED

COMPROMISE FOR THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE WEST COAST ON DAY 3. BY

DAYS 6-7 TUE-WED THE GFS BECOMES SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN CONSENSUS

WITH THE UPR LOW THAT CLOSES OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SHOWS A

LITTLE MORE SEWD AMPLITUDE WITH THE TROF EDGING TOWARD THE WEST

COAST... SO THE BLEND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF/12Z ECMWF

MEAN LATE IN THE FCST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS AND AFTN FINALS CHANGE THE MIX SLIGHTLY TO

REFLECT AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE SFC LOW OVER ERN CONUS

DAYS 4-5 WHILE SIMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AT DAYS 6-7 TOWARDS

GFS/ECMWF ENS MEANS.

VERY STRONG HIGH LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN PERSISTS THRU THE PERIOD

WITH RIDGES OVER GREENLAND AND ICELAND AND OVER THE WRN ALEUTIANS

KEEPING UP STRONG NEGATIVE AO AND NAO VALUES LOCKING IN A DEEP

ANOMALOUS TROF OVER ERN CONUS AND THE ERN PACIFIC.

AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS SEWD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST ENHANCED BY

BUILDING UPSTREAM RIDGING AN ARCTIC AIR CRASH PROCEEDS SOUTHWARD

THRU THE PLAINS SAT AND DEEP INTO THE GLFMEX SUN SWEEPING SOUTH

AND EAST TO OFF THE EAST COAST AND LATE SUN AND MON. DEEPENING SFC

LOW MOVING NEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY SAT WILL BE OFF THE NORTHEAST

COAST MONDAY. LARGE AREA OF WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL COVER

THE ERN HALF OF CONUS. THIS WILL THREATEN FLORIDA WITH ANOTHER

FREEZE COLDER AND WINDIER THAN THE RECENT AND CURRENT EVENT WITH

RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE. MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID ATLC

REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST FOR MON-WED WHILE AVERAGING 15 DEGREES

BELOW THE NORM ARE WAY TOO WARM AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD AREAS TO

STAY AOB FREEZING THRU MUCH THE PERIOD. HIGH WINDS WILL BRING COLD

PENETRATION INTO MORE VULNERABLE STRUCTURES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST

COAST BRINGING A THREAT OF COLD DAMAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER

THE GULF COAST AND FL AS HTS RISE MID WEEK.

RETROGRESSION OF AN EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG MID LEVEL BLOCK TO

GREENLAND RESULTING IN A CLOSED TO CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE NEW ENG

COAST SETTING THE STAGE FOR DAYS OF OFFSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS

INITIALLY ALONG THE ENTIRE EAST COAST MONDAY THEN REMAINING OVER

THE MID ATLC REGION AND NORTHEAST THRU THURSDAY. PROLONGED STRONG

OFF SHORE WINDS WILL LOWER TIDAL LEVELS ALONG THE

COAST..BAYS/SOUNDS AND RIVERS POSSIBLY TO LEVELS UNSEEN SINCE

APRIL 1975. THIS COULD BE A THREAT FOR DEEP AND EVEN SHALLOW DRAFT

VESSELS IN HARBORS.

A MODERATE TO HVY SNOW SNOW EVENT ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IN AND SRN MI

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND EWD INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER WRN CONUS UNDER MID

LEVEL RIDGING WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF FRONTAL RAINS COMING INTO THE

PAC NORTHWEST AND NRN CA MON INTO WED WITH COOLING ALOFT DUE TO

LOWERING HTS MAY CHANGE RAINS TO SNOWS AT HIGHER ELEVS.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[The_Global_Warmer]

If anyone see's the euro ensembles please post them

[SnowGoose69]

If anyone see's the euro ensembles please post them

Congrats Grand Forks

[EasternUSWX]

Congrats Grand Forks

Post please?

[HM]

This -NAO block is more useless than the last several pages of Wes' thread on "where we're heading."

[Ellinwood]

If anyone see's the euro ensembles please post them

Ens is pretty close to Op with the weekend system.

[usedtobe]

Ens is pretty close to Op with the weekend system.

Really ugly and it looks like there is not that much spread as the low is not that stretched out.

[Ericjcrash]

GEM ens. are well east of op run and east of last run.