HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I find this one interesting. (I usually don't host individual cyclone threads-- since I have my hands full with the main NATL and EPAC threads, and also my chase threads-- but I thought I would this time-- so I hope y'all don't mind. ) The latest Euro solution-- accelerating a strong, compact cyclone NNE across the Gulf-- is pure hawtness. I notice the SHIPS is not terribly enthused just yet, bringing it up to only 44 kt by Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 It's not a terribly convective disturbance, I'll say that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 95L is now Disturbance 14 looking at SHIPs/BAMs... 714 WHXX01 KWBC 061852 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1852 UTC TUE SEP 6 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962011) 20110906 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110906 1800 110907 0600 110907 1800 110908 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.6N 93.8W 19.7N 94.8W 19.0N 95.9W 18.0N 96.8W BAMD 20.6N 93.8W 19.7N 94.7W 18.6N 95.9W 17.8N 97.2W BAMM 20.6N 93.8W 19.9N 94.8W 19.0N 95.9W 17.9N 97.1W LBAR 20.6N 93.8W 20.3N 94.1W 20.8N 94.8W 21.6N 95.3W SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 47KTS DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 38KTS 29KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110908 1800 110909 1800 110910 1800 110911 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 16.9N 97.5W 15.5N 98.0W 13.7N 98.6W 12.6N 101.5W BAMD 17.2N 98.6W 16.6N 101.3W 16.8N 104.0W 17.6N 107.6W BAMM 17.0N 98.3W 15.6N 100.2W 14.3N 102.1W 12.8N 105.2W LBAR 23.0N 95.3W 27.5N 93.3W 33.9N 86.6W 40.9N 72.8W SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 73KTS 75KTS DSHP 28KTS 37KTS 42KTS 44KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 20.6N LONCUR = 93.8W DIRCUR = 155DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 94.3W DIRM12 = 153DEG SPDM12 = 5KT LATM24 = 23.0N LONM24 = 95.0W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Ah, so it's actually the DSHIPS that caps at 44 kt. The SHIPS brings it to a 'cane, as it doesn't factor in land interaction. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I find this one interesting. (I usually don't host individual cyclone threads-- since I have my hands full with the main NATL and EPAC threads, and also my chase threads-- but I thought I would this time-- so I hope y'all don't mind. ) I notice the SHIPS is not terribly enthused just yet, bringing it up to 44 kt by Day 5. Opinion of DSHP notwithstanding, I believe 96L has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane over the next 5 days.. With 96L developing over waters of 30°C-31°C and later crossing waters >29°C for much of its journey northward, I believe the system has a reasonable chance to reach Category 1 status. Initially, development will probably be slow. But at some point, it could really take off, perhaps with the storm increasing its maximum sustained winds by 25-30 knots over a 36-48-hour period to bring it to hurricane strength. In terms of track, for a rough idea based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, something between the tracks of Tropical Storm #5 (1898) and Hurricane #4 (1902) is probably more likely than other ideas. The 9/6 12z ECMWF takes the system on a track not too far to the west of the latter storm's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Euro peaks it around 970mb b/n 96-120hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The high will be our friend this time is Euro is to be trusted, no way it comes near us, fairly weak pressure gradient this far away from the microcane. No more gusty winds downing power lines or spreading the fires. The trees will still all die, but I am all about finding the silver lining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Opinion of DSHP notwithstanding, I believe 96L has the potential to develop into a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane over the next 5 days.. With 96L developing over waters of 30°C-31°C and later crossing waters >29°C for much of its journey northward, I believe the system has a reasonable chance to reach Category 1 status. Initially, development will probably be slow. But at some point, it could really take off, perhaps with the storm increasing its maximum sustained winds by 25-30 knots over a 36-48-hour period to bring it to hurricane strength. In terms of track, for a rough idea based on the forecast 500 mb pattern, something between the tracks of Tropical Storm #5 (1898) and Hurricane #4 (1902) is probably more likely than other ideas. The 9/6 12z ECMWF takes the system on a track not too far to the west of the latter storm's track. Awesome, Don! I was just wondering, "What does Don think about this?" and here is your post. Cool that you see some 'cane potential in this! I have to admit, I had to look up those analogs-- I was not aware of them, despite being a self-proclaimed history nerd. For those of you who aren't familiar with these examples, Don is suggesting landfall on the Middle Gulf Coast, between Lake Charles, LA, and Pensacola, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 About the SHIPS... it uses the BAMM model for track, until there's an official NHC forecast... so it's quite useless at the moment, especially if we consider that there won't be a closed low for at least 24-36 hours. Right now the Euro is the right outlier... my guess is that all GFS offspring will have a MX LF (not saying they are right, but since they are based on the more leftward global model, it's natural to think that is gonna happen... the BAMs are one example). CMC is a bit north of the GFS, extrapolating it would be a MX landfall... Ukie is a bit to the right of the CMC, slower, and could go either way. If it's a N GOM landfall, shear and the possible start of some baroclinical transition would limit it's intensity to no more than a strong cat 1 probably, IMO... though the Euro thinks shear will not be that detrimental. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 About the SHIPS... it uses the BAMM model for track, until there's an official NHC forecast... so it's quite useless at the moment, especially if we consider that there won't be a closed low for at least 24-36 hours. Right now the Euro is the right outlier... my guess is that all GFS offspring will have a MX LF (not saying they are right, but since they are based on the more leftward global model, it's natural to think that is gonna happen happen). CMC is a bit north of the GFS, extrapolating it would be a MX landfall... Ukie is a bit to the right of the CMC, slower, and could go either way... if it's a N GOM landfall, shear and the possible start of some baroclinical transition would limit it's intensity to no more than a strong cat 1 probably, IMO Ah, OK. I see the BAMs all bring it SW into MX, so no wonder the DSHIPS intensities are so blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Euro ensemble members are spread out from just west of Tampico NE to the central/east Gulf Coast- most are SW of the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Euro ensemble members are spread out from just west of Tampico NE to the central/east Gulf Coast- most are SW of the Op. I'm just guessing, but there are probably few TX landfalls in those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Euro ensemble members are spread out from just west of Tampico NE to the central/east Gulf Coast- most are SW of the Op. If you can see the individual members, I assume its fairly binary, with Southeast Texas 'protected' from drought relief by the ridge? All Mexico/extreme DST or all North/Central Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Environment is extremely dry to the north of the system, advecting southward on the backside of the remnant circulation of Lee. I would think this would inhibit development at least for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Thanks Josh. FWIW, the 18z NAM took a modest step toward a landfall threat farther north along the Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The entrainment of dry air would be a significant negative for intensification if it took a track toward the northern Gulf Coast as the ECMWF suggests. Not sold on this one yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The entrainment of dry air would be a significant negative for intensification if it took a track toward the northern Gulf Coast as the ECMWF suggests. Not sold on this one yet... shear looks like an issue, too, given the upper system (remnant lee) still in place over the midwest/mississippi valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 Ugh, so that piece-of-crap Lee is ruining everything? Upper air pattern, dry air, OHC, etc. Grrrr. Kill it, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Environment is extremely dry to the north of the system, advecting southward on the backside of the remnant circulation of Lee. I would think this would inhibit development at least for the next few days. As long as this stays in the low-shear environment in the Bay of Campeche or Central GOM, the dry air really shouldn't be an issue since it's not necessarily advecting radially inward towards the center. The dryness of the environmental air may constrict the TC's size, which is suggested by some papers in the literature and shown by the global models' depiction of a microcane-type of TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 As long as this stays in the low-shear environment in the Bay of Campeche or Central GOM, the dry air really shouldn't be an issue since it's not necessarily advecting radially inward towards the center. The dryness of the environmental air may constrict the TC's size, which is suggested by some papers in the literature and shown by the global models' depiction of a microcane-type of TC. Interesting-- I never realized there could be a relationship, but it makes sense. Which general direction do you see it going-- and do you feel the system has potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Interesting-- I never realized there could be a relationship, but it makes sense. Which general direction do you see it going-- and do you feel the system has potential? It will be trapped down there in the Bay of Campeche for at least the next 3 days, that's about the only thing I'm confident of as far as track is concerned. Beyond that there seems to be two camps, with one accelerating the storm towards the northern Gulf coast, while the other has it continuing to drift towards the west or northwest. I do think this has considerable potential if this doesn't accelerate too quickly towards the northern Gulf coast. The small size, copius ocean heat content and low shear environment all point to quick intensification once it organizes its core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 18z GFS is almost a copy of 12z... no clarity so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 18z GFS is almost a copy of 12z... no clarity so far Bleh... Hopefully in the next few days we can get some extra sounding and GIV flights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 The 18z HWRF looks similar to the CMC... extrapolating it looks like a NE MX hit.... and on the compact side of things ... at least all models agree on strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 I really don't know which way this one is going to go yet. Given the bias that normally occurs during a La Nina year, I wouldn't be totally surprised if the ridging builds in stronger than the ECWMF is expecting... then again it just blew a forecast where it was doing just that last week with Lee. The main difference here is that 96L is a much smaller circulation and would likely be more susceptible to even a weaker ridge than what we were dealing with for Lee. The SOI dailies have also been running significantly more positive the last few days, so that also points towards more ridging potentially than currently forecasted. If I had to lean one way, I think the GFS has the better idea here, but I'd prefer to wait and see the circulation become established before making any sort of bold call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 The 18z HWRF looks similar to the CMC... extrapolating it looks like a NE MX hit.... and on the compact side of things ... at least all models agree on strengthening Pretty hawt. La Pesca, here we come. (Or maybe San Fernando. Or maybe Matamoros.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It needs to stay small and form fairly far S if it's going to take that southern route. If it gets to be a larger storm or forms farther N than the GFS implies, I cannot see it staying on that southern track unless the EC and its ensembles are just totally wrong with their 5 day mid/upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 It needs to stay small and form fairly far S if it's going to take that southern route. If it gets to be a larger storm or forms farther N than the GFS implies, I cannot see it staying on that southern track unless the EC and its ensembles are just totally wrong with their 5 day mid/upper level pattern. FWIW, the 12Z GFS EnKF is way NE of the op run, has it about 200 miles S of Vermilion Bay, LA as a deep cyclone (965 mb) at day 7. 12Z FIMY is more similar to the ECMWF as far as timing but is farther E, landfalling a 992 mb low near Destin on day 5. It's just like any tropical system, where/when it develops is going to be key to whether it does the western or northeastern track. BTW, NHC has it as mandarin now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 7, 2011 Author Share Posted September 7, 2011 I'm liking some of these solutions. Definitely a cause for hope! Convection picking up a bit this evening. Maybe we'll get some dmax lovin': Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 7, 2011 Share Posted September 7, 2011 GFS: no substantial change, stalls way down in the Gulf near Mexico, big difference from the Euro continues. Which model will blink first? EDIT: LF in Mexico about 120 hrs....boooooooring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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