snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Looks like the NAM wants to pound the OH Valley, but it can also shift east a little. Anyways, I'm not sure if NE can take another 5-10 inches of rain, especially with Katia waiting in the wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Am I reading the BOX AFD right that the possible hydro situation (if this were to pass) would be a CT/RI event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 2, 2011 Author Share Posted September 2, 2011 Am I reading the BOX AFD right that the possible hydro situation (if this were to pass) would be a CT/RI event? Yea I didn't get that either, If anyone is going to get hit hard, its going to be NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Will have more time to post tomorrow but really interested/concerned about potential flooding issues this weekend and early next week. Obviously still dealing with high rivers/streams and with a slow eastward progressing trough/cold front and a stream of moisture working northward from the Gulf (Lee) the potential exists for multiple periods of extremely heavy rainfall along with the potential for thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Will have more time to post tomorrow but really interested/concerned about potential flooding issues this weekend and early next week. Obviously still dealing with high rivers/streams and with a slow eastward progressing trough/cold front and a stream of moisture working northward from the Gulf (Lee) the potential exists for multiple periods of extremely heavy rainfall along with the potential for thunderstorms. Agreed. That might be the big story again. Further south as well, especially the Hagerstown area or something. Big time training it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 3, 2011 Author Share Posted September 3, 2011 I'm surprised no one is talking about this... This could be really dangerous if 5"+ fall on NE. Nam has been inching closer to nailing SNE too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The potential for heavy rains out here is increasing by the day. Oct. '05 floods occurred in a similar scenario, with a cold-front overtaking Tammy remnants and a tropical depression offshore not too far from where Katia might end up. The rivers and streams have receded a bit the past few days, and hopefully they keep going down. All sorts of roads are out in Berkshire and Franklin counties and another 6+" isn't really going to help. http://www.gazettene...y-road-closings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Is this different than the Potentially LIfe Threatening situation that BTV has been harping over the past 48 hours? Flash Flood Watches up for the entire North Country. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY AS 1-6HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ONLY 1-2" IN SOME SPOTS. Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 3pm. Some of the storms could produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind between 9 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Night: Showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 64. South wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Labor Day: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 70. South wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Monday Night: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Tuesday: Showers likely, mainly before 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 64. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Really surprised still nobody else is really discussing this. The pattern setup for the early part of the week is something that has the potential to produce a great deal of rainfall across much of the region and with many rivers/streams still running high along with a saturated ground the risk for flooding is certainly elevated as well as the potential for some major flooding. All models are showing a very slow eastward progressing trough and cold front; in fact models are virtually moving these features so slow they may actually just stall out some. Associated with the trough are some very strong winds aloft. Looking at around 50-80 knots at 500mb off to our west along the trough with an upper level jet of around 100-125 knots. As the trough continues to get closer, albeit slowly we will eventually become in the right exit region of both the mid and upper level jets. With the trough placed to our west and a strong ridge off to our east in the central Atlantic the flow inbetween these two features will be from the south and southwest. This flow will pump in a great deal of moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico as dewpoints will climb well into the 60's to near 70F. PWAT values will also be increasing to as much as 1.5'' to over 2'' as well! Over course of the next day or so a warm front will be lifting northward as well which will allow this moisture to work into the region and for the higher dewpoints and warmer low-level airmass to surge northward. With a warm front lifting northward through the area; a cold front/trough off to our west and decent jet dynamics not too far away there will be a great deal of lift throughout the region. There will also be a series of stronger LLJ maxes working into and through the region as well. The NAM, which usually overdoes the strength of the LLJ has as much as 60-80 knots working into the region, the GFS is much less aggressive only showing around 30-40 knots. Either way as these LLJ maxes work into and through the region they will be a focal point for enhanced lift and heavier rainfall as well. Moisture surging northward from the remnants of Lee will also play a major role in the potential for extremely heavy rainfall. As far as local effects go there could be times where upslope enhancement adds to the heavy rain potential as well. With all this said between late tomorrow (remember there is the potential for some convection to work into western sections) and late Tuesday/early Wednesday some portions of the region may see as much as 3-5'' of rainfall with some isolated higher amounts certainly possible. In fact as we get closer and details are further worked out I wouldn't be shocked to see as much as 4-7'' of rain in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Forgot to add too that there could certainly be pockets of embedded thunderstorms as well which would certainly locally increase rainfall rates and rainfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 18z gfs has a boatload of rain for us up here this could turn bad quick for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It is looking a bit gloomy for NE...or really gloomy perhaps. And I'm surprised there's so little being said too. Perhaps Wiz was right - The next 4 months are going to blow...just more than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 New 12z NAM stalls the front right over NE.... not good good for me cause I like damage tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 New 12z NAM stalls the front right over NE.... not good good for me cause I like damage tho I'm beginning to see the light... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The north and east trend is starting early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Really not liking the models at all; someone is going to get an absurd amount of rain this week and portions of western MA/VT could be looking at very serious flooding issues. Could not be good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Really not liking the models at all; someone is going to get an absurd amount of rain this week and portions of western MA/VT could be looking at very serious flooding issues. Could not be good at all. Will it be spread out or in a 12 hour period like Irene? And would that make much difference. This could suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Will it be spread out or in a 12 hour period like Irene? And would that make much difference. This could suck Looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur between sometime Monday afternoon and early Tuesday. Not sure if will be spread out over a long period of time, although it probably wouldn't make much of a difference. The NAM is much juicer than the GFS is, although I would probably lean towards something more like the NAM. Definitely still think as much as 3-5'' of rainfall is possible with some isolated 4''-6'' amounts possible. This could be very ugly for parts of western MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 5, 2011 Author Share Posted September 5, 2011 GFS and NAM continue to dump on NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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