NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I agree for now...presently think 1st storm has better chances for snow than does the weekend one. Weekend storm a la EC has support from UK; I like the latter model on ECUS storms during Oct/Nov and Mar/Apr. If cut-off develops with weekend system esp from 500 hPa down (some hint for such from the Ukie) then system's snow dump potential goes up IMO. However, as is often the case with pre-winter storms that do cut-off the heaviest precip (based on climatology) falls from the CD (and surrounding high terrain) and points southwards to both the S'rn Catskills and S'rn Taconics UK lost the weknd storm at 12z. I think the sothern dacks will see at least a few inches of snow thursday afternoon into night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 UK lost the weknd storm at 12z. I think the sothern dacks will see at least a few inches of snow thursday afternoon into night. I think they may but it is too early to say for sure IMO. Here's why..first QPF forecast still has a lot of disparity amongst the models. 2nd We're going to need some pretty good UVM and or a C/O feature aloft to aid in dynamic cooling to get decent snow accums. 3rd Yes elevation will play a huge factor in this event esp wrt amounts but will be the best elevation to be at? Right now to me it looks like points around 1200 feet and abv have the best chance to get accumulating snow. Just saw that UK and GGEM "lost" storm #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah...trends on the 12z suite not really favorable for us valley folk. Euro and NAM trend a bit warmer on the first storm. While I think confidence was always low of accumulations in the valley, was hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Still could be decent for those with some elevation or those north of Saratoga Springs...but starting to look like nothing but some wet flakes for the rest of the region. Euro still hanging onto storm 2...but still shifting a little further south and less amplified. Hopefully, if this ends up behaving like a true winter threat, we'll see models start to correct a bit farther NW in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I think they may but it is too early to say for sure IMO. Here's why..first QPF forecast still has a lot of disparity amongst the models. 2nd We're going to need some pretty good UVM and or a C/O feature aloft to aid in dynamic cooling to get decent snow accums. 3rd Yes elevation will play a huge factor in this event esp wrt amounts but will be the best elevation to be at? Right now to me it looks like points around 1200 feet and abv have the best chance to get accumulating snow. Just saw that UK and GGEM "lost" storm #2 so your saying warrensburg gets snow and down toward the lake shore it snows without sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Keeping hope alive here at 1400 feet! I think they may but it is too early to say for sure IMO. Here's why..first QPF forecast still has a lot of disparity amongst the models. 2nd We're going to need some pretty good UVM and or a C/O feature aloft to aid in dynamic cooling to get decent snow accums. 3rd Yes elevation will play a huge factor in this event esp wrt amounts but will be the best elevation to be at? Right now to me it looks like points around 1200 feet and abv have the best chance to get accumulating snow. Just saw that UK and GGEM "lost" storm #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah...trends on the 12z suite not really favorable for us valley folk. Euro and NAM trend a bit warmer on the first storm. While I think confidence was always low of accumulations in the valley, was hoping to be pleasantly surprised. Still could be decent for those with some elevation or those north of Saratoga Springs...but starting to look like nothing but some wet flakes for the rest of the region. Euro still hanging onto storm 2...but still shifting a little further south and less amplified. Hopefully, if this ends up behaving like a true winter threat, we'll see models start to correct a bit farther NW in the next couple days. We'll see - if nothing more the season for model watching has begun! so your saying warrensburg gets snow and down toward the lake shore it snows without sticking more or less yes; Athol and top of Prospect Mtn best chances, probably Minerva, Chestertown too. Keeping hope alive here at 1400 feet! that's all you can do for now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 NAM is really holding onto the idea of 2-rounds of precip for this first storm. I felt it had backed off a bit at 6z...even more so at 12z...but now 18z really develops that second round of precip early Friday AM. First round comes through Thurs PM & night with a weaker piece of energy...helps cool the column. That's pretty much rain for everyone. A secondary surface low develops with the digging trough and stronger upper-level support...and that's mostly snow for most of us. I think that's the only way we get any accumulations into the lower elevations. However, the NAM is mostly on its own with this idea. The Euro was doing something like that yesterday...but has since trended away from it. We'll see - if nothing more the season for model watching has begun! And that's the bottom line...winter is around the corner. I'd rather have something to track late October and have it not work out then have absolutely nothing of interest on the radar until mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 First flakes of the season! Huge parachute flakes mixing in with the rain here. 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Awesome! Congrats! First flakes! 39.1F and rain down here at 392' at Voorheesville High School. First flakes of the season! Huge parachute flakes mixing in with the rain here. 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 As of 9:53 a.m., Glens Falls is reporting light snow, 5 mi visibility, temp 37F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Just starting to stick here at 1400 feet... down to 34.9 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Snow staring to mix in here at SUNY Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fun times late next week per the 0z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Weekend could be a close call in Albany. GFS looks pretty nice with a solid 0.75" of QPF...but NAM is way south...Euro in the middle (looks to be about 0.3"). Models trended a bit since yesterday, hope to see that continue today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 is it me or does the cyclone down in the NW caribean seem to be saying to heck w/ forecast track i'm heading to fl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I vote 06Z GFS lol 180hr please! Absolute crushing for western NY and northern PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Fun times late next week per the 0z gfs.. If you think that means fun times, wait until you see the 06Z GFS :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Capital region in the game! 12z NAM shifted north. NAM, SREFs, GFS now all getting at least 0.5" into the Albany area...Euro looked a bit lighter...but we still have time. And just got the text alert on my phone...ALY WSW's up! I do worry about ratios a bit if we are on the fringe. If we don't get into the heavier deformation band...rates could be light and boundary temps could be marginal during the daylight hours. Could hold down accumulations a bit. I'd still be more excited if we could get this to trend another 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm feeling the 50 mile shift...I'm bettin GFS has it today and NAM tonight...fingers crossed...this is sick! Capital region in the game! 12z NAM shifted north. NAM, SREFs, GFS now all getting at least 0.5" into the Albany area...Euro looked a bit lighter...but we still have time. And just got the text alert on my phone...ALY WSW's up! I do worry about ratios a bit if we are on the fringe. If we don't get into the heavier deformation band...rates could be light and boundary temps could be marginal during the daylight hours. Could hold down accumulations a bit. I'd still be more excited if we could get this to trend another 50 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If you think that means fun times, wait until you see the 06Z GFS :snowman: holy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol 12z GFS why couldn't you still show the epic super bomb . I really hope it shows back up, that would be sweet! Nor Easters don't really excite me, I'm to far west and climatologically speaking I rarely recieve a good storm. Unless it is a rare 93' type storm. Inland runners are the only east coast storm that helps out western NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lol 12z GFS why couldn't you still show the epic super bomb . I really hope it shows back up, that would be sweet! Nor Easters don't really excite me, I'm to far west and climatologically speaking I rarely recieve a good storm. Unless it is a rare 93' type storm. Inland runners are the only east coast storm that helps out western NY and PA. hopefully it shows up on the 0z run tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Alright---who has the snow jinx in the area so that people north of ~Saratoga get shafted???LOL .Actually truth be told, I am relieved right now with the NWS and others cutting us in the Glens Falls area way back. I was really debating even getting the plow out with it warming up next week. The NWS AFD from 7:00 am today. OTHERWISE...LATEST NEAR-TERM RUC13/HRRR...AND SFC OBS DEPICT TWO SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING TRENDS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS INDICATE BEST FORCING TRANSLATING ACROSS S/E AREAS ONLY...WITH STRONGEST FGEN ACROSS MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH MUCH WEAKER FORCING FURTHER N/W. SHOULD RADAR TRENDS BEGIN TO INDICATE THAT THIS MAY COME TRUE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED BACK...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY...ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION...LATEST SFC OBS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN OCCURRING THUS FAR ACROSS EASTERN PA. THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE RELATIVELY WEAKER PRECIP RATES THUS FAR...AND ALSO SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. AS FORCING INTENSIFIES...DYNAMICAL COLUMNAR COOLING MAY LEAD TO MORE SNOW. AGAIN...BOTH OF THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS EITHER OR BOTH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO LESS SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE REGION. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... AS OF 415 AM EDT...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. IN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS REMAINED THIN...TEMPS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMING. ELSEWHERE...TEMPS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEARLY STEADY...FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS FAR...PRECIP HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT AND PATCHY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MILD BOUNDARY LAYER...AND WEAK DYNAMICS/PRECIP RATES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 We're going to have to wait for mid-month or so for the pattern to change, I think. Should be warmer than average over the next 10 days or so. Nice weather for the Bills/Jets game on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 We're going to have to wait for mid-month or so for the pattern to change, I think. Should be warmer than average over the next 10 days or so. Nice weather for the Bills/Jets game on Sunday. yeah i dont mind NOT wasting a cold pattern on the first 15 days of november....but once we move past nov 10th-15th or so, its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 yeah i dont mind NOT wasting a cold pattern on the first 15 days of november....but once we move past nov 10th-15th or so, its time. In years with blowtorch Octobers, the pattern does tend to change around mid November. There's usually snow in Ottawa by the 15th-20th and at least flurries in Toronto by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 2, 2011 Share Posted November 2, 2011 I'm looking forward to the next week or two of fine fall weather (which we really haven't had yet) before the real flakes fly. Time to clean out those garages and rake them leaves while the 50s and 60s are here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Catskills Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 18.0F right now. It looks like that will be the bottom. First teens of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 have to say that I'm loving the 12z run of the GFS, which shows a big cool down by next weekend, with light snow prospects for both Toronto and Ottawa by Remembrance/Veteran's Day. Here's hoping the gFS is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 While the NAO looks to cooperate in the extended range by going somewhat negative...the Pacific is looking incredibly hostile with a very strong -PNA being forecasted by the gfs, ec, and ec ensembles through the period. We are going to need that to change in order to get significant cold to sustain in the midwest and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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