Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Voyager]

Greetings to the folks in the Houston area. I'm spending the next day and a half in Baytown as I wait to make a Monday morning delivery in Houston. I have to say that, being from the cold northeast, I'm really enjoying this nice, mild weather down here.

[Srain]

Greetings to the folks in the Houston area. I'm spending the next day and a half in Baytown as I wait to make a Monday morning delivery in Houston. I have to say that, being from the cold northeast, I'm really enjoying this nice, mild weather down here.

Welcome to SE TX, Voyager!

[Voyager]

Thanks Srain!

[msp]

flying back down on monday to c-stat. 76F sounds absolutely awesome, and the weather looks perfect late in the week as well. i love this time of year in texas.

0z GFS says next good shots at rain are the 22nd and 26th.

[Srain]

While a warm up is ahead for the next couple of days, another front will sweep S Tuesday with some possible showers along the boundary. Warmer temps are expected into the next weekend, but changes are lurking in the longer range.

The 00Z Op Euro continues to advertise a potent storm with a sharp cold front near the 25th, +/- a couple of days and several 00Z GFES 500mb members are very suggestive of big changes lurking near the same time frame. The longer range GFES even suggests some very chilly air may be dislodged from Canada dropping S into the Intermountain West/Plains into late January/early February. Enjoy the warth while it lasts...

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro continues the trend suggesting a potent storm crossing Arizona/New Mexico near the 23th, +/- a couple of day. As often is the case as we have seen since late November, the 5H lows are very difficult to forecast and likely as a bit too progressive at this range. An additional WInter Recon Mission has been scheduled and hopefully with better data, guidance will latch on to a sensible solution for the Pacific NW/N CA as well as the active pattern across the Pacific...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EST SUN 15 JANUARY 2012

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JANUARY 2012

WSPOD NUMBER.....11-046

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49 --

A. P31/ 37.7N 175.0W/ 17/0000Z

B. NOAA9 03WSC TRACKP31

C. 16/1830Z

D. 15 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK

E. 40,000 TO 45,000FT/ 17/0600Z

[Ed Lizard]

Glass half full, as always...

Tuesday morning, liking 850 mb winds versus 500 mb flow for shear, somewhat concerned 850 mb temps show are hinting at capping...

[andyhb]

18z GFS at 192 hrs is showing some pretty nasty kinematic/thermodynamic elements coming together with this system, 40-70 kts at H85, 60-90 kts at H5 and a substantial inflow of moisture from the Gulf, which will likely be built up over several days prior to the trough's passage. The H5 profiles look pretty darn stout, as does the sfc, look at that low at 192 hrs (actually from 168 hrs. on is where it really begins cranking).

The previous day looks quite active as well, with a 30-40 kt LLJ and instability flowing north nicely across Eastern Texas, SE OK and the Arklatex, perhaps into the Ozarks, with similarly strong mid-level wind profiles.

Could have a solid winter storm on its backside as well. This is really beginning to catch my attention and keep in mind that the instability likely is underdone this far out.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another very warm day expected today ahead of the next cold front this afternoon.

Temperatures already starting out in the low 70’s this morning which is about 10 degrees higher than our normal high temperature and much like Monday highs should reach into the mid to upper 70’s under cloudy skies with periods of drizzle and light rain this morning becoming showers this afternoon. Highs are running 3-5 degrees short of records! A cold front over N TX will rapidly move southward and cross the area this afternoon. Unfavorable SW flow in the mid level should advect a capping inversion across SE TX from northern MX helping to limit the growth of thunderstorms along the front. Additionally this dry flow will spread drier mid level air into the region with moisture confined to below the cap. Lift along the front and pooling Gulf moisture should be enough however the generate a few bands of showers along and ahead of the boundary from mid morning to mid afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be less than .5 of an inch for most locations.

Front will bring strong cold air advection ending the warm spell and knocking temperatures back toward what would be normal for this time of year…at least for one day (Wednesday). Progressive pattern aloft pushes the cold dome quickly eastward with southerly winds returning by Thursday and a quick warm up to back above normal (50 for lows by Friday and 70’s for highs). Very warm weekend is expected with deep southerly flow with low rising into the upper 60’s and highs pushing 80.

Next fairly potent looking storm system will arrive early next week. Moisture levels will deepen significantly over the weekend with PWS pushing 1.5 inches by Sunday. Track of this system will need to be watched closely in the next few days as strong dynamics atop good Gulf moisture return may result in a very active early next week.

[Srain]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0650 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL LA INTO NORTHERN

AL...

...LOWER OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER MOST OF THE CONUS...WITH

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND

MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING

EASTWARD ACROSS IL AND SOUTHEAST MO...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER

OH VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE

FRONT HAVE RESULTED IN NUMEROUS REPORTS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS

OVERNIGHT. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING.

HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND IN THE

STRONGEST STORMS. PLEASE REFER TO MCD #22 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...AR/LA/MS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER

NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TX WHICH WILL TRACK QUICKLY EASTWARD AND INTO

THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING

FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS LED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING OVER EAST TX AND SOUTHERN AR. THIS

ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO LA AND SOUTHERN MS

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY

COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL POSE A RISK OF

ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN MS/AL BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO

DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG.

HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL

PROMOTE A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE

FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN

THREAT...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE

AFTERNOON BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY

FROM THE AREA.

[Ed Lizard]

What could have been... LCH cap quite breakable, CRP cap is of forged steel...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

TXC005-347-171530-

/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0002.120117T1436Z-120117T1530Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

836 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...LUFKIN...DIBOLL...

CENTRAL NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CST

* AT 836 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED 23 MILES WEST OF DIBOLL...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST

OF CROCKETT...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

POLLOK...HUDSON...HUNTINGTON AND WODEN...

Silver lining optimist, CRP looks rather unstable above 750 mb, and new NAM may be analyzing just a hint of a jet streak/right entrance region, and I take my fun-derstorms anyway I can get them.

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0926 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME E TX/NRN AND CENTRAL LA/SRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171526Z - 171600Z

WW WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FROM EXTREME E TX EWD THROUGH MUCH

OF NRN/CENTRAL LA TO SRN MS.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP WITHIN A

CORRIDOR OF ONGOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WAA ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY

MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WEAK HEIGHT

FALLS ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION

AREA COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY FORCING

MECHANISMS. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT THIS

TIME AND CLOUDINESS LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING...THE PRESENCE OF

STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE

SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS LA /MLCAPE AOA 1000

J PER KG/.

12Z RAOBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE/LAYER ACROSS

THE LOWER MS VALLEY THAT MAY CONTINUE TO ACT AS A LIMITING FACTOR

FOR OVERALL COVERAGE OF MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS/STRONGER ACTIVITY.

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE

BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SWD ADVANCING COLD

FRONT...ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES REMAIN LIKELY WITH AT LEAST A

THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORCING FOR ASCENT

ATTENDANT TO THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD WEAKEN THE CAP

SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE

TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN

STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR AND SRH EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2012

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

[ouamber]

Looking at the 12z GFS, it appears the "bowling ball" on the 25+/- storm has moved much farther north, therefore, keeping the cold air much farther north.....we need that storm to track across TX to have any chance of snow here in OK....any mets have any thought on this? Are the models moving this storm around a lot ?

[wxmx]

First 90F+ of the year...yay!

[bubba hotep]

First 90F+ of the year...yay!

Is that early for yall?

[msp]

76F here. feels at least that hot. was noticeably humid this morning with a td of 67.

that should start dropping like a rock though. waco at 53F.

[Srain]

Looking at the 12z GFS, it appears the "bowling ball" on the 25+/- storm has moved much farther north, therefore, keeping the cold air much farther north.....we need that storm to track across TX to have any chance of snow here in OK....any mets have any thought on this? Are the models moving this storm around a lot ?

The Euro suggests some possible wintry precip for parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and a Winter Storm for higher elevations in New Mexico. This has always been a severe weather threat more than anything else and that trend continues today.

[ouamber]

The Euro suggests some possible wintry precip for parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and a Winter Storm for higher elevations in New Mexico. This has always been a severe weather threat more than anything else and that trend continues today.

Seriously? So my winter storm for Tulsa is now becoming a severe threat...ugh...that is no bueno:(

[Srain]

HPC afternoon update regarding early next week...

IN ADDITION... BOTH THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE A PARALLEL

VERSION RUNNING THAT ARE BOTH SLOWER THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL

COUNTERPARTS BY TUE/D7... BUT WITHOUT A CLOSED LOW. RECENT

FORECASTS OF SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW EJECTION PROVED QUITE

CHALLENGING LAST WEEK... SO THE FORECAST MAY NOT SETTLE FOR A FEW

MORE DAYS.

12Z MODEL UPDATE... THE 12Z GFS STILL SHOWS SOME TIMING

DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO THE PRELIM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF...

BUT HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. IT HAS SLOWED ITS NOW CLOSED LOW OVER

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE/D7 WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QUICKEND AND

WEAKENED ITS EARLIER DEEP SOLUTION. THE EARLIER ISSUANCE PROVED A

GOOD INTERMEDIATE GROUND SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE.

[wxmx]

Is that early for yall?

Earliest that I remember. 1999 had 90F for the 20th and 97F for the 21st. 2008 had it's first 100F the 5th of Feb. Today we topped at 94F... a bit balmy

[#NoPoles]

Earliest that I remember. 1999 had 90F for the 20th and 97F for the 21st. 2008 had it's first 100F the 5th of Feb. Today we topped at 94F... a bit balmy

are you serious??? i couldn't even get close to 49 today!...how bout we average our temps and go with that?!

[Srain]

Well the 00Z guidance was sure interesting. We know no more this morning than we did yesterday. The GFS now has a closed core upper low sitting and spinning S of the Big Bend Region dumping copious rains and storms in the eastern half of Texas while wintry mischief is confined to the cold sector in W Texas and New Mexico. The U/L stalls for 24-36 hours before slowly moving E over E Texas/W Louisiana.

The Canadian has that feature as well, but ejects it slowly N and E a touch faster than the GFS only to be replaced by another U/L in the longer range.

The Euro also suggests a N Mexico/W TX solution, but never fully closes the upper low, yet digs a deep/sharp mid latitude trough that carves S into Texas. All this is near the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Sound familiar?

Needless to say with the run to run changes we are seeing, confidence remains low as it has with these type upper lows all season. It does appear a potent southern stream storm is shaping up near the early week time frame with yet another changeable forecast over the next several days. Stay Tuned as they say. Things may get bumpy around here yet again.

[Ed Lizard]

Holding out hope for fun-derstorms on Tuesday IMBY.

WxMaps.org 0Z GFS meteogram is semi-depressing, good rains mid week, but post frontal...

[wxmx]

are you serious??? i couldn't even get close to 49 today!...how bout we average our temps and go with that?!

Haha, we should do that ... Usually my area records the earliest 90s and 100s of the year for North America, before things level off in June (though humidity increases), especially during La Niñas. As the southernmost extension of the Plains, during late February we can go from 30s to 100s in less than 2 days (though, it's not that common, but February is known as Febrero loco -- y Marzo otro poco --). Being at the foot of the Sierra Madre, we get our version of the Chinook winds.

[Ed Lizard]

Not a perfect match, certainly, but interesting...

[Ed Lizard]

Grasping- maybe

As shown in Figure 4, the 500 mb patterns during the 1951 and 1962 Arctic outbreaks were very similar; a deep polar vortex over Baffin Bay, a major trough over the northern United States with an east-west trough line, zonal flow south of the trough line and northerly flow from a high amplitude ridge north of the trough line. The events preceding these patterns were also very similar.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

[bubba hotep]

The GFS has been all over the place today with the system around the 24thish time frame. The 6z and 18z runs "feel" more like this winter than the 12z.

[JoMo]

The GFS has been all over the place today with the system around the 24thish time frame. The 6z and 18z runs "feel" more like this winter than the 12z.

Agree, they have really been all over the place though. The Euro has been doing it as well.

[Srain]

The over night guidance has come better agreement and now suggest that very potent storm system will cross the region as a deep mid latitude trough develops with a organized southern stream upper low approaching next Wednesday, the 25th. HGX is suggesting that this storm complex has the look of what we saw on January 9th when very heavy rains/severe weather affected SE TX. Once again there will be a boundary stalled very close the Central/SE TX that could serve as a focal point for heavy rainfall and hints of a Coastal wave/low developing early next week as the upper low approaches. Stay tuned as it is appearing we are heading toward yet another very active period.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Warm and humid air mass returning to the region after one cool day yesterday.

Surface high moving eastward in the progressive upper level flow will result in southerly surface winds bring higher dewpoints back into the region. Offshore buoys this morning show mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints poised to make a return by the weekend and with near shore/bay water temperatures in the upper 50’s to low 60’s sea fog seems a good bet starting tonight and continuing through the weekend. As moist air moves over the colder waters and dewpoints exceed water temperatures by 2-3 degrees expect a dense bank of sea fog to develop from Matagorda Bay to coastal Louisiana. Winds from the S to SSW are not in an overly favorable direction for an extended period of time for the higher dewpoint air to chill to saturation an east to ESE wind would be more favorable. Thus expect a narrow, but thick bank of sea fog to form near the coast and over the bays and linger through much of the weekend. Visibilities will vary greatly near the coast over the next 2-4 days as the fog moves inland at times with high visibilities falling rapidly to less than .50 of a mile in the fog bank. Sea fog will advance inland starting each evening likely reaching US 59 by 8-10pm and then HWY 105 by 2-3am. Fog will linger into the mid to late morning hours each day for lifting and breaking into a scattered low level deck. Along the coast many locations may stay socked in all day, especially around Galveston Bay eastward across Bolivar into Jefferson County.

Otherwise temperatures will be very warm for mid January with highs running in the mid to upper 70’s and lows from the mid to upper 60’s by the weekend. Overnight lows will be averaging 15-20 degrees above normal and daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal. Dry air above the very moist surface layer will keep rain chances on the low side through Monday. Could be a weak frontal intrusion into at least the northern sections of the area Sunday, but for now will not put much faith in this providing much of a cool down.

Next potential significant weather maker appears to be shaping up for the middle of next week with the models having some difficulty as they have had much of this winter season on resolving the timing, track, and intensity of the next upper level trough. Given the poor consistency of the models and the fact that the event is still about 6 days away, will defer to later time periods for more in depth discussion on this possible event. First feeling is that the drier and warmer pattern following more typical La Nina winter patterns may eventually work into what otherwise appears to be another possible heavy rainfall/severe weather event. Minus the Jan 9 event it has become increasing dry again across the state as La Nina conditions have taken a bigger stand a worrisome trend given the historical drought still in place.