phil882 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I'm watching the visible satellite imagery, and it seems to me that part of the problem is that, while overall shear from the surface to the tropopause isn't that great (it's there, but relatively weak), there are multiple layers of shear in there. It seems to me as if there is moderate northerly flow at the mid-levels, and then southerly flow at the upper-levels. That would make relative shear between the mid- and upper-levels quite high. I say this because it looks like new convection starts off with the tops being blown southward, but the tops of the tallest convection (highest cirrus) are being blown northward. Am I seeing this correctly? http://wwwghcc.msfc....i-bin/post-goes Yep... this the same problem that CU Met alluded to the past couple of days. Northwesterly 300mb flow is undercutting the more favorable 200mb flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 "No molesta" means "do not bother it". Well that's just mean... all I wanted was a radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 That told me nothing as to why the Hercules fly low level missions lower than the Orions. Thanks. You didn't ask why. You said you noticed they flew higher. Next time i'll read your mind. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Looks like Emily is getting dressed up again, fortunately….unless of course you are in Haiti (you gotta feel bad for them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 You didn't ask why. You said you noticed they flew higher. Next time i'll read your mind. My bad. Actually, I did. Asked whether it was an airframe age issue. If I wanted a quick Google look up on basics of the Orion, I'd have done it myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yep... this the same problem that CU Met alluded to the past couple of days. Northwesterly 300mb flow is undercutting the more favorable 200mb flow. Ya, I had just remembered your sounding after I posted that. 50kts of shear between 300mb and 200mb is not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 You didn't ask why. You said you noticed they flew higher. Next time i'll read your mind. My bad. Actually, I did. Asked whether it was an airframe age issue. If I wanted a quick Google look up on basics of the Orion, I'd have done it myself. Chill, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Its still heading west at 2pm not even wnw it better turn quickly to follow the nhc path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Chill, guys. Chilled. I think Emily has put out a giant arc cloud that is in the shape of a feeder band, if that makes any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Its still heading west at 2pm not even wnw it better turn quickly to follow the nhc path. Like others have said , at this point the western part of the NHC track looks more likley right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Well that's just mean... all I wanted was a radar! I was slightly wrong. It's a transitive verb, so it needs an object. "No molesta(s) [x]" means do not bother/disturb [x]. Idonno why the "me" comes before "molesta" in the phrase "no me molesta", which means don't bother me. Jorge can correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 FWIW ,the 12Z HWRF appears to have shifted slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I was slightly wrong. It's a transitive verb, so it needs a subject. "No [x] molesta(s)" means do not bother/disturb [x]. Jorge can correct me if I'm wrong. No Disponible. Disculpe las molestias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Chilled. I think Emily has put out a giant arc cloud that is in the shape of a feeder band, if that makes any sense. I think what you are seeing is dry air and moist air entangling and creating a weird yin-yang pattern. The "arc" cloud I believe you are referring to is a visual artifact of that, not anything important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 No Disponible. Disculpe las molestias. Not available. Sorry for the ... well, bothersome-ness (inconvenience, I guess). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karmac Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 No Disponible. Disculpe las molestias. It means: Not available Sorry for the inconvenience. Back to lurking. Great discussion as always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
generelz Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 No Disponible. Disculpe las molestias. Fairly common idomatic spanish - "Not available - Sorry for the inconvenience" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Not available. Sorry for the ... well, bothersome-ness (inconvenience, I guess). Oh okay... it still doesn't seem too much like the normal Mexican/Cuban Spanish I'm used to. Oh well.. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Bring rainstorm back. In that case, 15/0/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I would kind of like to watch a recently-exposed naked swirl (especially from a stronger system) as it passed overhead. Watching the tiny popcorn cumulus quickly swirl around the center with nothing obstructing the view would be kinda cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I would kind of like to watch a recently-exposed naked swirl (especially from a stronger system) as it passed overhead. Watching the tiny popcorn cumulus quickly swirl around the center with nothing obstructing the view would be kinda cool. I've been in a naked swirl before... trust me, it isn't all that exciting. You're lucky if you get in the convection that's sheared away from to get a slightly-stronger-than-a-typical-Gulf-summer-thunderstorm thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I've been in a naked swirl before... trust me, it isn't all that exciting. You're lucky if you get in the convection that's sheared away from to get a slightly-stronger-than-a-typical-Gulf-summer-thunderstorm thunderstorm. Oh, it's not the excitement... believe me. I would want to avoid thunderstorms! I just think it would be an eerie/weird sight to see harmless clouds swirling menacingly with only some moderate winds and partly sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Oh, it's not the excitement... believe me. I would want to avoid thunderstorms! I just think it would be an eerie/weird sight to see harmless clouds swirling menacingly with only some moderate winds and partly sunny skies. That part is interesting, I suppose... but I get more excitement from seeing a line of sea breeze front thunderstorms in the distance... lol. They are actually pretty similar (maybe a few more fastish moving low clouds in the naked swirl, of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 12Z Euro: WNWish across PaP, then a turn NW to the Central Bahamas, then WNW and strengthening to just off Miami, then exceptionally slow N movement off the E coast of Florida, then NNE and weakening into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 That part is interesting, I suppose... but I get more excitement from seeing a line of sea breeze front thunderstorms in the distance... lol. They are actually pretty similar (maybe a few more fastish moving low clouds in the naked swirl, of course) Haha, fair enough. As for Emily, unless the latest satellite image from 18:15 is faulty, it looks like the "new" burst of convection near the center is already falling apart. How are you going to keep convection alive when the top half is being sheared in two different directions? Stuff is still firing northeast of the center, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 FWIW ,the 12Z HWRF appears to have shifted slightly east. Also appears to be slightly stronger, which could be the reason it shifted to the E. It looks like it basically grazes the entire SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Haha, fair enough. As for emily, unless the latest satellite image from 18:15 is faulty, it looks like the "new" burst of convection near the center is already falling apart. How are you going to keep convection alive when the top half is being sheared in two different directions? Stuff is still firing northeast of the center, though. This is also fairly well timed with the greatest amount of downsloping dry flow coming off the peaks. The stuff firing NE of the center is likely part of what Phil was saying... frictional convergence on the windward side of the island. For the dying convection, it is most likely a combination of shear and lee flow being wrapped, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 The longer the circulation remains weak and surface based, the further west it's going to go, closer to the BAM-shallow. GFS, EC and especially the UK came in much further west. Convection is beginning to fire again, but I think it's already too late for the east track. I'm willing to bet this thing goes south of Miami, maybe over the Keys, and makes landfall in the panhandle as a Tropical Storm. Don't really have time to draw a map right now but that's my forecast! Ok, I gave in after all... I'd also like to add to my above reasoning that progressive dry air entrainment from the north, as well as much higher shear north of the system than south of it, may allow for the center of circulation to redevelop to the south multiple times between now and Hispanola, further enhancing the southward track. Looks like my forecast from Monday of going south and west of NHC has held up reasonably so far. This is due to a number of factors, including but not limited to: the lack of organization of the system, allowing the low-level circulation to be advected by the low-level easterlies, pulses of convection as the shear periodically increases then relaxes, allowing for center relocation to the south, and a slightly stronger ridge than forecast (except by UKMET). I no longer expect a track quite that far west near the end of my forecast, but I continue to think that Emily will stay left of the NHC forecast. The intensity forecast has been reasonable so far as well. Bare in mind that I made this forecast before recon Wed found a TS, so I was initially expecting a TD for the first few days. I am still anticipating a weakening to TD by this time tomorrow. Although Emily appears to be ingesting less dry air than before, the combination of a 300 mb northerly jet and land interaction will cause weakening. However, shear should abate north of Cuba, so if deep convection can re-develop coincident with the low-level vortex post Cuba, I would expect re-intensification to a TS. Thus far the UK and the ECMWF have been the best so far in handling the dual ridge structures, one over the southern US, the other over the Atlantic, so I would continue to lean towards them for guidance. The 12Z of both of these models just came out and appear as follows: UK ECMWF At this point, were I to adjust my track forecast, I would take it further east, with a landfall somewhere in S. FL before recurving. I still do not forsee Emily ever becoming a hurricane, but it may be possible post-recurvature once she's no longer a threat to land and close to extratropical transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I just dont see how its gonna hit Haiti...I think its more in line to hit Cuba or, it could got between Cuba and Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 This is also fairly well timed with the greatest amount of downsloping dry flow coming off the peaks. The stuff firing NE of the center is likely part of what Phil was saying... frictional convergence on the windward side of the island. For the dying convection, it is most likely a combination of shear and lee flow being wrapped, IMO. Maybe, but when I said "NE of the center", I meant the strongest growth of convection just NE of the center. Not the stuff over and southeast of Hispaniola. Seems a bit too far away from the island to be frictional convergence due to land... maybe just enough lift from an outflow boundary from the collapsing thunderstorms just to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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