Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Discuss... http://www.americanw...of-san-juan-pr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Eventually downsloping winds from the islands are going to contribute to this already existent dry air problem....I wonder if it will ever get good conditions until its out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pressures slowly falling still. Moving more WNW now (scratch that, the lowest SLP is farther north than the wind shift)...tough it's difficult to accurately assess the motion with such a broad and elongated LLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pressure dropping a bit, extrap down to 1004.4mb, about 1mb down from the previous pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Following from the previous thread, arc cloud is a shortening of the term arcus cloud, which does have a wikipedia article. This oversight has now been fixed within wikipedia. Eventually downsloping winds from the islands are going to contribute to this already existent dry air problem....I wonder if it will ever get good conditions until its out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pressure dropping a bit, extrap down to 1004.4mb, about 1mb down from the previous pass. Interesting to note that reading was 20 miles north of the wind veering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Anyone watching RECON have a fix on the center? I had stepped out and barely missed it, but it seems to be a bit S of 1556N 6515W. I want to create a new radar image with the center displayed. There seems to be an elongated eye trying to form according to the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Fairly healthy shift E with the 18Z track guidance. Everything but the BAMS seem to suggest a Florida miss and a weak cyclone recurving rapidly OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 19:48Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309) Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011 Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 6 Observation Number: 05 A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 19:10:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°39'N 65°13'W (15.65N 65.2167W) B. Center Fix Location: 199 miles (320 km) to the SSE (164°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 45 nautical miles (52 statute miles) to the ESE (121°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 159° at 24kts (From the SSE at ~ 27.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the ESE (117°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 300m (984ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N (360°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I don't get what is funny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crainjd Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I don't get what is funny.. 31 mph surface winds I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I don't get what is funny.. I'm guessing the surface winds at 31 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 31 mph surface winds I believe. It's not funny though because it's expected. The center is displaced from the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Great! So here's the 1910Z radar image with the center pinpointed with the little red box. Looks like we have some tilting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It's not funny though because it's expected. The center is displaced from the convection. I think it's funny. Too many people are trying to put lipstick on a pig. Until it clears the Greater Antilles we'll continue to see weird and unimpressive recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think it's funny. Too many people are trying to put lipstick on a pig. Until it clears the Greater Antilles we'll continue to see weird and unimpressive recon data. It looks fairly beautiful on the visible/IR and I think it has alot of potential. Just my two cents... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I've never seen a TC that looks so good on satellite and yet be so poor in surface (or near surface) observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Last fix, location of the center in relation to convection, IR image within 5 minutes of Recon fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I've never seen a TC that looks so good on satellite and yet be so poor in surface (or near surface) observations. No offense, but then you haven't been doing this very long. And a lot of them that behave like this seem to be in the eastern Caribbean - there's a reason why it's called the Graveyard. Still as I said earlier, it does look better on satellite than it did, and that is better than it looking worse. It seems like the models are hinting at a more favorable environment once it clears the islands, and to be honest it seems like systems do better after Hispaniola if they don't have really well developed inner core versus if they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I've never seen a TC that looks so good on satellite and yet be so poor in surface (or near surface) observations. I kind of thought the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think it's funny. Too many people are trying to put lipstick on a pig. Until it clears the Greater Antilles we'll continue to see weird and unimpressive recon data. I agree. I think it's more likely that in 12 hours people will be jumping off bridges again as opposed to anything super positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 No offense, but then you haven't been doing this very long. And a lot of them that behave like this seem to be in the eastern Caribbean - there's a reason why it's called the Graveyard. Still as I said earlier, it does look better on satellite than it did, and that is better than it looking worse. It seems like the models are hinting at a more favorable environment once it clears the islands, and to be honest it seems like systems do better after Hispaniola if they don't have really well developed inner core versus if they do. Nice post. The default setting in the eastern caribbean at this time of year is to pretty much always assume a storm will struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I've never seen a TC that looks so good on satellite and yet be so poor in surface (or near surface) observations. Yeah, haven't seen such a deceiving storm since Don 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Still as I said earlier, it does look better on satellite than it did, and that is better than it looking worse. It seems like the models are hinting at a more favorable environment once it clears the islands, and to be honest it seems like systems do better after Hispaniola if they don't have really well developed inner core versus if they do. Why is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Why is that? Just a guess, but without a well developed center, it is easier to develop a new center if there isn't much of a pre-existing center that survived land. Isidore was similar after hitting the Yucatan. TDs seem to do better than hurricanes crossing the Yucatan as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Excluding the BAM suite, a sharp recurve somewhere East of Florida seems to be the message of the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Excluding the BAM suite, a sharp recurve somewhere East of Florida seems to be the message of the models... The UKM is close but no cigar...must not be building a 594 decameter ridge anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 In the interest of space, I have posted my updated Emily forecast/discussion on an outside blog. Click here to view it Right now am still expecting a recurve off the Florida/southeast coast. There continues to be no risk to the Mid Atlantic north of the Carolinas. Intensity is tough. Nearly steady intensity through landfall in Hispaniola seems like the way to go given the dry air/shear in place. After Hispaniola intensity is highly uncertain and dependent upon what state the system is in after moving over the island, but the GFS/ECM are trying to build a large upper level anti-cyclone off the southeast coast/over the Bahamas by the end of the week, which may favor re-strengthening north of the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The UKM is close but no cigar...must not be building a 594 decameter ridge anymore. A Canadian/UK Met consensus is right into Homestead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 ...EMILY A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED... 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 2 Location: 15.8°N 65.4°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: WNW at 12 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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