2Slick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Can't wait till May. Enjoy the holidays everyone! Oh god... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 euro produces another monster, but it bombs and occludes well well south. its too bad because the intensity of this thing could defintely bring it right up the coast, but im guessing the upstream blocking (theres that word again... :arrowhead: ) is the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 euro produces another monster, but it bombs and occludes well well south. its too bad because the intensity of this thing could defintely bring it right up the coast, but im guessing the upstream blocking (theres that word again... :arrowhead: ) is the culprit. I'm really jealous.........!@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's certainly not an optimal track for Upstate NY and frankly not for SNE either (despite their current euphoria because of the qpf) with it passing around 37/70. The only thing that gives hope to the southern half of Upstate would be the sheer size of it...that we could still get something from it. I think it gets about .25 to ALB on the fringe...not that qpf matters much now. The 5H situation in Quebec is mucking it up somehow in terms of it being able to climb the coast it a bit more before exiting stage right. Sometimes these Mid Atlantic bombs end up trending a bit north so we can hope, but I'm mainly talking about whether the sharp northern gradient is at POU, ALB, or GFL right now. euro produces another monster, but it bombs and occludes well well south. its too bad because the intensity of this thing could defintely bring it right up the coast, but im guessing the upstream blocking (theres that word again... :arrowhead: ) is the culprit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's certainly not an optimal track for Upstate NY and frankly not for SNE either (despite their current euphoria because of the qpf) with it passing around 37/70. The only thing that gives hope to the southern half of Upstate would be the sheer size of it...that we could still get something from it. I think it gets about .25 to ALB on the fringe...not that qpf matters much now. The 5H situation in Quebec is mucking it up somehow in terms of it being able to climb the coast it a bit more before exiting stage right. Sometimes these Mid Atlantic bombs end up trending a bit north so we can hope, but I'm mainly talking about whether the sharp northern gradient is at POU, ALB, or GFL right now. yes i see what you are saying now about the 5H pattern in quebec, it really screws everything up beyond 100 hours. given the sheer size of the storm, if we can get it to move a few hundred miles north and occlude near long island, there would be a chance....but as you pointed out the pattern doesnt seem to support that as of the latest runs. but IF.....big IF....if the euro is correct in a megaphase (and its the western outlier right now).....and a 965 low on the virginia coast.......given that the h5 can be off by hundreds and hundreds of miles at this range 100+ hours out that would allow this to slip north some.......and given the historic nature of the storm....ill still keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's certainly not an optimal track for Upstate NY and frankly not for SNE either (despite their current euphoria because of the qpf) with it passing around 37/70. The only thing that gives hope to the southern half of Upstate would be the sheer size of it...that we could still get something from it. I think it gets about .25 to ALB on the fringe...not that qpf matters much now. The 5H situation in Quebec is mucking it up somehow in terms of it being able to climb the coast it a bit more before exiting stage right. Sometimes these Mid Atlantic bombs end up trending a bit north so we can hope, but I'm mainly talking about whether the sharp northern gradient is at POU, ALB, or GFL right now. Good post my friend. Right now my interpretation of the latest EC: Likely there will be 2 very sharp cut-offs - 1) Between measureable snow and none at all; second within the meaureable snow area. Tend to think CD-Hilltowns get some accum, mostly light MAYBE some moderate totals across Greene/Schoharie County (east of the Schoharie Valley) with potential for heavy amts from SWF to POU to Great Barrington. North of ALB along an approxx MV-DDH line on north ungowah. Again this is just my interpretation of EC if I were to use it to base my forecast on it. I would still like to see the ECEM for 12z to see if it has shifted any way left or right north or south, etc. With such a large cut-off and deep surface system forecast one would need a very strong kicker to drop to the west and south of this feature. I don't see any yet so the prospects of a more NNE-NE course are slight to me. In addition what you may wind up seeing with this system is that as it occludes a very large wishbone shaped occlusion will develop with another low developing on the TP (triple-point) well to the ENE of the parent cyclone. Where the TP is in time will be the question. I would suspect probably 150 miles or so maybe more to the ESE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Apparently the Euro ensembles have come in west of the 0Z. Someone on the SNE thread said they get mean pressure to around 39.5/71 ...then it ejects (or jumps to triple point) ENE. But that is hearsay ...don't have access to them. Good post my friend. Right now my interpretation of the latest EC: Likely there will be 2 very sharp cut-offs - 1) Between measureable snow and none at all; second within the meaureable snow area. Tend to think CD-Hilltowns get some accum, mostly light MAYBE some moderate totals across Greene/Schoharie County (east of the Schoharie Valley) with potential for heavy amts from SWF to POU to Great Barrington. North of ALB along an approxx MV-DDH line on north ungowah. Again this is just my interpretation of EC if I were to use it to base my forecast on it. I would still like to see the ECEM for 12z to see if it has shifted any way left or right north or south, etc. With such a large cut-off and deep surface system forecast one would need a very strong kicker to drop to the west and south of this feature. I don't see any yet so the prospects of a more NNE-NE course are slight to me. In addition what you may wind up seeing with this system is that as it occludes a very large wishbone shaped occlusion will develop with another low developing on the TP (triple-point) well to the ENE of the parent cyclone. Where the TP is in time will be the question. I would suspect probably 150 miles or so maybe more to the ESE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Apparently the Euro ensembles have come in west of the 0Z. Someone on the SNE thread said they get mean pressure to around 39.5/71 ...then it ejects (or jumps to triple point) ENE. But that is hearsay ...don't have access to them. I only have access to ECEM at home and the mean is a bit odd. Its more off the NC/SC coast when the OP has it tucked in and further north. Then it does have the mean very close to the BM perhaps just SSE of it by about a degree of latitude maybe even less. AND FWIIW 12z GEFS has a few more members (looks like 4 to me) than prior runs to the NW or NNW of the OPS and GEFS mean LP. Gotta go. Maybe some thoughts later if time and circumstance allow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That was a great storm in ENY obviously with 27" at ALB I believe. It was extremely fierce, but fast. It moved in around dawn on Saturday and was gone by midnight or so. We had a period of thunder snow with incredible snowfall rates and visibility literally under 100 feet. In contrast to the current fantasy ECMWF storm, the one in 1993 really trucked up the coast and was long gone fast. My one regret was how fast it moved - contrasting to the 'Februrary '78 Northeast Blizzard when I was kid that lasted a good 36 hours. That duration made it seem more epic though snowfall amounts were similar where I was. My greatest snowfall event (though technically 2 events I guess) was this past February's 46 inch four day event. I realize that I will likely never top that one - and how weird to be able to drive 10 miles off the hills and see only about 8 inches on the ground. '93 was before my time, but it's definitely near the top of snowstorm I would have loved to experience. It wasn't anything particularly special in WNY, but the meteorology of the storm is amazing...and it was obviously a pretty generous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 '93 was before my time, but it's definitely near the top of snowstorm I would have loved to experience. It wasn't anything particularly special in WNY, but the meteorology of the storm is amazing...and it was obviously a pretty generous storm. 2 feet of snow in rochester though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 well...with the Sunday storm now likely to be too far offshore to be of much interest, looks like most of us are going to be left dumpster diving the off runs and out-hours of the GooFuS and Euro for any signs of a synoptic system that's worth poop for the next while. GooFuS has had a nice blizz for the upper midwest indicated on&off for the past week and as of 12Z that idea is back on for right after New Years. I feel for those that haven't cashed in on LES because it'll probably be mid January before anything pops up again synoptically. Everyone have a great christmas / holidays and see you next year when the wx gets interesting again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 2 feet of snow in rochester though! Automatically, in my view of WNY (which many people in 'my' WNY share) Rochester isn't part of WNY. Of course, in reality it is...but I tend to forget that. Buffalo media seems to be mostly behind that with the "8 Western NY counties" thing. That total is very impressive. The 1990s were very kind to Rochester with synoptic snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 who is ready for some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andyace Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 When is that for? I love it, I am getting a little snizzle right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 who is ready for some rain! We need a big low to track right up Lake Erie...the inevitable is getting closer and closer, but still can be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Flurries just getting in here as the area of snow showers spreads west -> in from VT and MA. 23F now. We need a big low to track right up Lake Erie...the inevitable is getting closer and closer, but still can be delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Picked up an inch today in the form of legitimate snow sandwiched between snizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good post my friend. Right now my interpretation of the latest EC: Likely there will be 2 very sharp cut-offs - 1) Between measureable snow and none at all; second within the meaureable snow area. Tend to think CD-Hilltowns get some accum, mostly light MAYBE some moderate totals across Greene/Schoharie County (east of the Schoharie Valley) with potential for heavy amts from SWF to POU to Great Barrington. North of ALB along an approxx MV-DDH line on north ungowah. Again this is just my interpretation of EC if I were to use it to base my forecast on it. I would still like to see the ECEM for 12z to see if it has shifted any way left or right north or south, etc. With such a large cut-off and deep surface system forecast one would need a very strong kicker to drop to the west and south of this feature. I don't see any yet so the prospects of a more NNE-NE course are slight to me. In addition what you may wind up seeing with this system is that as it occludes a very large wishbone shaped occlusion will develop with another low developing on the TP (triple-point) well to the ENE of the parent cyclone. Where the TP is in time will be the question. I would suspect probably 150 miles or so maybe more to the ESE of the BM. Andy you are a great guy.I thank you for your time and brutal honesty. I am just thinking right now that it's still 4 days out,and it is starting to get close to a time where the models set a solution they are going to stay with and for it to move as far NW as we need I don't think is really feasable at this point.I could be---and strongly hope I am wrong, I just don't think it's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WWA issued for much of wny,a bit icy outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 yes i see what you are saying now about the 5H pattern in quebec, it really screws everything up beyond 100 hours. given the sheer size of the storm, if we can get it to move a few hundred miles north and occlude near long island, there would be a chance....but as you pointed out the pattern doesnt seem to support that as of the latest runs. but IF.....big IF....if the euro is correct in a megaphase (and its the western outlier right now).....and a 965 low on the virginia coast.......given that the h5 can be off by hundreds and hundreds of miles at this range 100+ hours out that would allow this to slip north some.......and given the historic nature of the storm....ill still keep watching. Do you hold out any hope Organizing low, or is this storm a bust for us? Really dissapointing given that Euro run on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do you hold out any hope Organizing low, or is this storm a bust for us? Really dissapointing given that Euro run on Tuesday. I posted some of my ramblings in the HV thread Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I posted some of my ramblings in the HV thread Here Good setup at this point Andy. I've been scrutinizing the models big time over the last 2 days, and my conclusion is that there IS potential for this to jump substantially far to the west (wrt the 00z GFS/Euro blend). IMO, a VERY big key will be to see what the h500 height field does directly to the north of us. The last few trends have allowed any system come further north, before interacting with the block (ie shooting NE). Now assuming we have a decent to big system, the "tuck" that the Euro has depicted is key.....does it tuck off the Va coastline, or just south of LI.....12z should be fun!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Good setup at this point Andy. I've been scrutinizing the models big time over the last 2 days, and my conclusion is that there IS potential for this to jump substantially far to the west (wrt the 00z GFS/Euro blend). IMO, a VERY big key will be to see what the h500 height field does directly to the north of us. The last few trends have allowed any system come further north, before interacting with the block (ie shooting NE). Now assuming we have a decent to big system, the "tuck" that the Euro has depicted is key.....does it tuck off the Va coastline, or just south of LI.....12z should be fun!! I agree 12z runs today thru Friday night will be key but for the tuck north and west to occur we'll have to see a slightly delayed to the phasing. I do agree the threat for this to occur is still there but based on current OP models and ensembles its just not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's like pulling teeth this year to get things just right for our area...though it's only 12/23.... So tantalizing because we aren't that far off, but things just look to be setting up a bit too far east. The Euro would be a decent side swipe, but 12Z could be totally different! We had light snow for a long time overnight and I wouldn't be surprised if we got an inch, but it blew so much that I actually lost depth on the open back lawn. I'll have to go down the hill where it is calmer and try to measure. I agree 12z runs today thru Friday night will be key but for the tuck north and west to occur we'll have to see a slightly delayed to the phasing. I do agree the threat for this to occur is still there but based on current OP models and ensembles its just not there yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Do you hold out any hope Organizing low, or is this storm a bust for us? Really dissapointing given that Euro run on Tuesday. well there is always the hope for 'some' snow. but as far as the big snows go, certainly that will be east of us. the pattern supports that. .....in this pattern, we need a BIG storm to tuck in near long island and slow. thats a lot to ask for but its not to say its not impossible. we are still a good deal away from the event. Wx4casts thoughts about wanting to see some movement west by tomorrow are good. the overnight euro was mildly encouraging. and that was my original feeling, that i would give it till xmas eve. its not our of the realm of possibility, but it would be a christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 well there is always the hope for 'some' snow. but as far as the big snows go, certainly that will be east of us. the pattern supports that. .....in this pattern, we need a BIG storm to tuck in near long island and slow. thats a lot to ask for but its not to say its not impossible. we are still a good deal away from the event. Wx4casts thoughts about wanting to see some movement west by tomorrow are good. the overnight euro was mildly encouraging. and that was my original feeling, that i would give it till xmas eve. its not our of the realm of possibility, but it would be a christmas miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe the law of averages is on our side. I wonder when Cape Cod ever had two 12"+ snow storms inside 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Rick, Not sure if they had 2 12"+ storms then, but it seemed like in 04-05 the Cape got hammered on a weekly basis...may have finished with over 100" that year down there. In any case, after the first half of last winter, I'd be OK if it was a long time before I saw another out-to-sea/suppression scenario. Maybe the law of averages is on our side. I wonder when Cape Cod ever had two 12"+ snow storms inside 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Maybe the law of averages is on our side. I wonder when Cape Cod ever had two 12"+ snow storms inside 7 days... Sort of like us back in what 2002-2003 with the 20"+ Nor'easters within 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The good old days.. and we even did well with the PD II storm up to the CD... The NAM is a hopeless whiff I see.... Sort of like us back in what 2002-2003 with the 20"+ Nor'easters within 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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