Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

[adk]

I bet a lot of the Euro's precip out west (Roc/Buf) is L. Ontario driven....with a circ. this large, and ample moisture, cold, and synoptic snow, we could have some surprisingly high numbers coming out of the N. Finger lakes area....IF Euro verified as depicted.

I'm with Andy on this......give me this solution (or better.....lol!) in 2 days, with a few more guidance members joining the party, then honk til the cows tunnel home!!!

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't this play out similarly in V-Day 2007 storm?

I seem to remember a ton of lake moisture getting tapped on the western edge of that bad-boy.

[WNYLakeEffect]

I was too young to remember 93, but according to Toronto4 there was 7-8cm (3"), most of that coming from east wind lake effect out ahead of the storm. The synoptic mostly missed us apparently.

The cutoff must have been sharp...BUF got 17.5" and ROC 23.2".

'93 was strange in WNY. Much of Niagara County missed out with <8", except 18" in Niagara Falls. Most of Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming and Northern Erie County got 12"+. However, in Southern Erie, extreme N. Chau., Catt., and the SW corner of Wyoming, only 2 to 8" fell. Silver Creek had 2", Colden 6", and Arcade 8". As you moved south, the totals went back up to 12"+. 12 to 24" fell in Chautauqua County, 12-14" in Catt county, and 12"+ in Allegheny.

[Logan11]

That was a great storm in ENY obviously with 27" at ALB I believe. It was extremely fierce, but fast. It moved in around dawn on Saturday and was gone by midnight or so. We had a period of thunder snow with incredible snowfall rates and visibility literally under 100 feet.

In contrast to the current fantasy ECMWF storm, the one in 1993 really trucked up the coast and was long gone fast. My one regret was how fast it moved - contrasting to the 'Februrary '78 Northeast Blizzard when I was kid that lasted a good 36 hours. That duration made it seem more epic though snowfall amounts were similar where I was.

My greatest snowfall event (though technically 2 events I guess) was this past February's 46 inch four day event. I realize that I will likely never top that one - and how weird to be able to drive 10 miles off the hills and see only about 8 inches on the ground.

The cutoff must have been sharp...BUF got 17.5" and ROC 23.2".

'93 was strange in WNY. Much of Niagara County missed out with <8", except 18" in Niagara Falls. Most of Orleans, Genesee, Wyoming and Northern Erie County got 12"+. However, in Southern Erie, extreme N. Chau., Catt., and the SW corner of Wyoming, only 2 to 8" fell. Silver Creek had 2", Colden 6", and Arcade 8". As you moved south, the totals went back up to 12"+. 12 to 24" fell in Chautauqua County, 12-14" in Catt county, and 12"+ in Allegheny.

[Logan11]

I don't think they were too similar actually. VD really blew up off the coast at 40+ latitude and more of less sat and dumped on us as it was captured I think. 1993 was a triple phaser (earlier) gulf low that shot up the coast and out fast - dumping that heavy snow x # of miles to the west of it's track all the way from AL/GA to ME/NB. It was just a massive system. I recall the radar lit up from FL to NY at one time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't this play out similarly in V-Day 2007 storm?

I seem to remember a ton of lake moisture getting tapped on the western edge of that bad-boy.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The GFS says the storm on the 27th is a bust and out to sea.

The GFS has been clueless lately though. It would be nice if today's Euro verified even though I wouldn't be in town for the storm; it would be great to track.

[West Point, NY]

Wow, that's a massive western extent. I mean, we had 4-6" with the February 26th, 2010 storm, but that came inland and rode the Hudson Valley a bit. To have >0.10" with a storm progged to track at or east of Long Island is almost unprecedented.

A storm of the magnitude the Euro depicted (sub 970) would not likely spread meaningful precip that far west as these rapidly intensifying monsters almost always collapse the moisture SE towards the center as everything consolidates. It's the weaker, slowly intensifying storms with a lot of overrunning out in front that usually wind up with the broader precip shield.The wildcard is the ULL.

[Syrmax]

'93 was "great" in south central CT...4" snow, then sleet, then rain. Then dryslot.

Oh yeah, it was windy too. Yawn.

20 or so miles to my NW in West Hartford there was probably about 18".

NWP is teasing in a classic way in the 5-8 day range. Euro honking and the GooFuS out to sea. In years past, were I to bet on an outcome, I'd bet the house GFS is wrong. We'll see if GFS changes in the past year or so have improved performance. It did latch onto the right idea on the last system, ahead of the Euro/GEM if I recall correctly.

[Logan11]

Truth is somewhere in between maybe. My bet is also that the GFS is in it's "lose the storm "period. I think this is gonna be a big storm for the East, but obviously it could still be I-95 and not inland...stay tuned. When I said in the SNE thread that this is gonna be high impact, I didn't mean to imply it was a lock IMBY.

The GFS says the storm on the 27th is a bust and out to sea.

The GFS has been clueless lately though. It would be nice if today's Euro verified even though I wouldn't be in town for the storm; it would be great to track.

[Logan11]

The reason the ECMWF spreads it so far inland at our latitude is that it bombs pretty far down the coast and we have a mature low with a spread west deformation here. So it does fit it's own depiction..... But we don't know whether it would actually deepen so fast at that latitude. It could well be a later bloomer.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Euro didn't back off somewhat at 0Z. I mean a big storm is very possible, but that 12Z was of biblical proportions. LOL It was the scenario if every possible piece of the puzzle came together perfectly for Upstate NY.

A storm of the magnitude the Euro depicted (sub 970) would not likely spread meaningful precip that far west as these rapidly intensifying monsters almost always collapse the moisture SE towards the center as everything consolidates. It's the weaker, slowly intensifying storms with a lot of overrunning out in front that usually wind up with the broader precip shield.

[West Point, NY]

The reason the ECMWF spreads it so far inland at our latitude is that it bombs pretty far down the coast and we have a mature low with a spread west deformation here. So it does fit it's own depiction..... But we don't know whether it would actually deepen so fast at that latitude. It could well be a later bloomer.

I'd be pretty shocked if the Euro didn't back off somewhat at 0Z. I mean a big storm is very possible, but that 12Z was of biblical proportions. LOL It was the scenario if every possible piece of the puzzle came together perfectly for Upstate NY.

One thing we know for sure..........Lows backing in from the East combining with the NW flow are as useless as t**s on a bull around these parts

[Organizing Low]

That was a great storm in ENY obviously with 27" at ALB I believe. It was extremely fierce, but fast. It moved in around dawn on Saturday and was gone by midnight or so. We had a period of thunder snow with incredible snowfall rates and visibility literally under 100 feet.

In contrast to the current fantasy ECMWF storm, the one in 1993 really trucked up the coast and was long gone fast. My one regret was how fast it moved - contrasting to the 'Februrary '78 Northeast Blizzard when I was kid that lasted a good 36 hours. That duration made it seem more epic though snowfall amounts were similar where I was.

My greatest snowfall event (though technically 2 events I guess) was this past February's 46 inch four day event. I realize that I will likely never top that one - and how weird to be able to drive 10 miles off the hills and see only about 8 inches on the ground.

you've never really told us how you felt about last years 4 feet of snow..... you dont talk about it much or use and crazy adjectives to describe it.

i always get the feeling that it wasnt as satisfying as other storms because it was elevation dependent....is this true or probably i am just imagining your sentiment?

[Logan11]

It was great of course. It was a very wet snow and I was on the edge the whole time about a changeover to rain so that was nerve wracking. So I guess maybe it didn't have quite the epic feel to it as the ones that encompassed the whole region like '78 , 93, etc.... After round one the NWS actually had us getting mostly rain from the second part, but alas I avoided rain by about five miles. LOL

But hey you can bet I loved every minute of it.

you've never really told us how you felt about last years 4 feet of snow..... you dont talk about it much or use and crazy adjectives to describe it.

i always get the feeling that it wasnt as satisfying as other storms because it was elevation dependent....is this true or probably i am just imagining your sentiment?

[Logan11]

Not quite as useless here since I don't get any NW downslope now that I'm out of the HV. But definitely not my optimum track.... I'd call it a consolation track.

One thing we know for sure..........Lows backing in from the East combining with the NW flow are as useless as t**s on a bull around these parts

[Organizing Low]

It was great of course. It was a very wet snow and I was on the edge the whole time about a changeover to rain so that was nerve wracking. So I guess maybe it didn't have quite the epic feel to it as the ones that encompassed the whole region like '78 , 93, etc.... After round one the NWS actually had us getting mostly rain from the second part, but alas I avoided rain by about five miles. LOL

But hey you can bet I loved every minute of it.

ahhh ok, how long did that cement take to melt?

[Logan11]

I'd say we had full cover for 3 1/2 weeks. The last patches about 5 weeks.

Keep in mind March was mild.... it took an incredible beating and hung on a long time.

ahhh ok, how long did that cement take to melt?

[Buffalo Bumble]

Ah, the '93 storm....I was in college at the time and decided to do a "mini" chase back home to Weedsport (just west of Syracuse), as that area seemed to be more in the bullseye. As others have said, the storm hit fast and extremely heavy. The fast movement of the storm was offset by the humongous precip shield stretching from the gulf coast to ontario. 12 hours+ of 2-4"/hour snow, 30-50 mph winds, 40" total accumulation, 7' snowdrifts...I was hooked as a snow weenie for life after that.

I've experienced some epic lake effect events since I moved to Buffalo, including the 80" Christmas week event, as well as some big ones in Oswego County off L Ontario. None of them compare in my mind to that '93 storm.

[Organizing Low]

Ah, the '93 storm....I was in college at the time and decided to do a "mini" chase back home to Weedsport (just west of Syracuse), as that area seemed to be more in the bullseye. As others have said, the storm hit fast and extremely heavy. The fast movement of the storm was offset by the humongous precip shield stretching from the gulf coast to ontario. 12 hours+ of 2-4"/hour snow, 30-50 mph winds, 40" total accumulation, 7' snowdrifts...I was hooked as a snow weenie for life after that.

I've experienced some epic lake effect events since I moved to Buffalo, including the 80" Christmas week event, as well as some big ones in Oswego County off L Ontario. None of them compare in my mind to that '93 storm.

greatest storm of my lifetime too.

the intensity was....incredible.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Oz depicts a bust for pretty much everybody from Ohio to the mid atlantic to - you guessed it- Ontario and Quebec.

Congratulations Sable Island, Nova Scotia

[ayuud]

tis the season for NW flow

[ayuud]

if gfs is to be believed,January looks sweet around this parts

[FEFD17]

I have a question about the Albany NWS office. I just went on their site and the state has a HWO posted about the posssible storm.It has no HWO for this area,but I am wondering is that because of different offices,thinking,modeling?Other states,and parts of this one are showing a possible storm but the Albany office and none of VT is showing anything.I thought it was just weird. I just read our local fish wrapper news paper online,there was a freezing rain advisory posted and said it has been lifted and the NWS has said it will be quiet through Christmas weekend.Just wondering if different offices have different criteria is all.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The latest Euro still shows a bomb, but with the low centred further south. As a result, Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal get nothing while places as far west as Pittsburgh get in on the snow. Really dissapointing, but still quite a storm to track.

The 6z GFs is frankly depressing to look at. Shows a blowtorch developing around New Years weekend with heavy rain for southern and eastern Ontario.

[Logan11]

Getting signals from various models I'm afraid that we have a reload situation of the pattern (positive spin) and that means a lovely cutter followed by much colder after the New Year. The negative spin would be that the milder January is about to commence, but I'm hopeful that at our latitude we have sufficient cold in January for some snow events.

It will definitely be a real kick in the behind if this Boxing Day storm busts and then we have endure our regularly scheduled cutter around New Years.

The latest Euro still shows a bomb, but with the low centred further south. As a result, Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal get nothing while places as far west as Pittsburgh get in on the snow. Really dissapointing, but still quite a storm to track.

The 6z GFs is frankly depressing to look at. Shows a blowtorch developing around New Years weekend with heavy rain for southern and eastern Ontario.

[Buffalo Bumble]

The latest Euro still shows a bomb, but with the low centred further south. As a result, Toronto/Ottawa/Montreal get nothing while places as far west as Pittsburgh get in on the snow. Really dissapointing, but still quite a storm to track.

The 6z GFs is frankly depressing to look at. Shows a blowtorch developing around New Years weekend with heavy rain for southern and eastern Ontario.

I was just thinking how the recent weather has been so similar to the 2nd half of last winter. Outside of lake effect areas, it's been pretty much in the 25-30 deg range for highs, light winds, and zilch for any synoptic snowfall. It's nice to be cold and keep a snowcover, as light as it is in most areas, but a pattern flip might actually be a welcome change - even if it means enduring a torch/rainstorm to get there...

As for the "Euro storm", I would be really surprised if the Euro doesn't start to move the storm further off the coast with each upcoming model run. The ridge that pops out west is impressive, but it looks to me like it wants to keep pushing eastward and shove any type of storm well off the coast.

[Buffalo Bumble]

Any update on where Syracuse stands in relation to the monthly snowfall record? I don't think there's been more than an inch over the last several days out there. It seemed like a lock that the record would fall with 8 inches to go and half of December left, but looks a little dicey now if the post-Christmas storm ends up way OTS and lake effect doesn't even become a factor...

[Andyace]

Can't wait till May. Enjoy the holidays everyone!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Getting signals from various models I'm afraid that we have a reload situation of the pattern (positive spin) and that means a lovely cutter followed by much colder after the New Year. The negative spin would be that the milder January is about to commence, but I'm hopeful that at our latitude we have sufficient cold in January for some snow events.

It will definitely be a real kick in the behind if this Boxing Day storm busts and then we have endure our regularly scheduled cutter around New Years.

As I posted in another thread, Bastardi has a video showing the GFS backing off its call new years weekend and then proeeds to explain, showing maps, how the cold air tap is pretty much going to be shut off for our side of the world. The coldest air is heading to palces like Asia and Europe. It will be interesting to see if Ottawa and Montreal can touch an air temperature of -20C this winter. They didn't in 2001-2002.

[OUtwister]

I have a question about the Albany NWS office. I just went on their site and the state has a HWO posted about the posssible storm.It has no HWO for this area,but I am wondering is that because of different offices,thinking,modeling?Other states,and parts of this one are showing a possible storm but the Albany office and none of VT is showing anything.I thought it was just weird. I just read our local fish wrapper news paper online,there was a freezing rain advisory posted and said it has been lifted and the NWS has said it will be quiet through Christmas weekend.Just wondering if different offices have different criteria is all.

Actually the Albany office does have a mention in their HWO of the potential storm. However, you have to go to their "local outlook" to view the HWO.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=HWO

To clarify the web page displays: the HWO will only highlight on the web page if there is a hazard mentioned in the day one period. If the headline says "No hazardous weather is expected at this time" in the day one period the web page will not highlight any hazards, even if there is a mention in days 2-7. I honestly do not know why this is done, other than to avoid cluttering up the web page with too many hazards??

As for criteria for putting a hazard in the HWO, it is local office discretion. This can vary anywhere from confidence level in the storm hitting the area or how many days in advance the storm is expected. Generally speaking, we try to highlight the threat further out in advance if it will be a busy travel weekend. However, we also have to be mindful of surrounding offices and national centers when mentioning a specific threat. It sometimes ends up being a fine line we have to walk on whether to include in the HWO or not, which may be the case with the Burlington office.

[Avid6eek]

I'd welcome a pattern change even if it involves lake cutters. Watching storms slide off to our south giving the MA weenies snow is the worst possible solution IMO.

[Logan11]

The 12Z GFS actually made a trend toward the Euro RE: the storm. Obviously still a whiff for all of Upstate NY, but FWIW it went the direction of the Euro...

Can't wait till May. Enjoy the holidays everyone!