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Upstate NY / North Country Winter 2010 Thread 1

Couchsachraga

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

SREF are impressive for ENY with the .3 and .5 probs > then or = 80%. Based much of the snow off of the 4km WRF from KBTV and our in house meso.

I think system during its RI period will slow and perhaps low up towards BID sound then curl NE west of the New England BM. 850 SD -5 anomaly winds should help a lot too especially from C & E New England. ENY is around -3 even -4 so not shabby either.

Further, since the Chief is coming in tomorrow I don't want to be too perfect or right; make him tweek things a bit so that he feels like he did some work.

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West Point, NY

West Point, NY

Posted
Posted

For now first call subject to change. Think amounts will have to be upped :

Andy I would think that we would achieve those amounts even with as little as .25 liquid. Downsloping issues (or not) withstanding, I see GFL solidly in the 6-10" with current modelling and excellent ratios. I would not be surprised if it's higher in the end.
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LakeEffectKing

LakeEffectKing

Posted
Posted

SREF are impressive for ENY with the .3 and .5 probs > then or = 80%. Based much of the snow off of the 4km WRF from KBTV and our in house meso.

I think system during its RI period will slow and perhaps low up towards BID sound then curl NE west of the New England BM. 850 SD -5 anomaly winds should help a lot too especially from C & E New England. ENY is around -3 even -4 so not shabby either.

Further, since the Chief is coming in tomorrow I don't want to be too perfect or right; make him tweek things a bit so that he feels like he did some work.

Heck with that....go for it......Call for 15.6" at the Albany county airport.....then go flip some scratch to the observers, and nail it!!!!!..With it being so windy....who the hell would know!!...Then you become Chief!!! ;)

Good luck.....tough storm...esp. with Christmas!!!

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Gorizer

Gorizer

Posted
Posted

I got the double bonus. Sure I'll be getting a good dose of snow IMBY, but I'm in South Central Connecticut for a few days visiting relatives!! Blizzard warnings!! :thumbsup::scooter::snowing:

You ENY'ers deserve this!!!! :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :snowman:

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --...MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EXPECTATIONS WERE FOR THIS STORM TO TRACK

EAST TO LIMIT ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO CONCERNS OF

MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODEL PERFORMANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES

LEADING UP TO THIS EVENT WERE LESS THAN IDEAL. TO BE SURE...THERE

WILL BE SOME RESEARCH AND CASE EXERCISES IN THE FUTURE ON THIS

EVENT.

WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YESTERDAYS 18Z DATA /INCLUDING THE 12Z 12/24 GFS

THAT WAS THE MOST WEST SOLUTION/...THE TRENDS WERE WEST. ALL

AVAILABLE GUIDANCE TODAY...LIKELY DUE TO POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS

FROM AIRCRAFT COMPLETING DROPSONDES ACROSS THE GULF LAST

NIGHT...NOW SUPPORTS A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM WITH ITS

IMPACTS BEING FELT ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. THE GUIDANCE TRACK

ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHRINK WITH METEOROLOGICAL BOMB EVOLVING

JUST EAST OF NJ AND SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS

WITHIN THE BENCHMARK AND PREVIOUS CSTAR RESEARCH OF MESOSCALE

EFFECTS SUPPORT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 2D-FGEN FIELD TO BE ACROSS OR

EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER. IN ADDITION...WITH THE EXPLOSIVE NATURE

OF THIS STORM...GRAVITY WAVE PROPAGATION COULD ALSO ENHANCE

SNOWFALL RATES /PER THE DUCT FUNCTION...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF

THE CAPITAL REGION/.

AS THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET COMES OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING...LIGHT

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SNOW WILL REACH THE CAPITAL

DISTRICT BY SUNSET SUNDAY. SNOW SHOULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH

THE POTENTIAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE BANDS COMING INTO

PLAY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT

TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND POINTS SOUTH AND

EAST. THE COMMA HEAD SHOULD WRAP BACK ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION

DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH DEFORMATION AXIS FURTHER ENHANCING THE

POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES.

FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN DACKS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR

LITTLE PRECIP AS EXPECTATIONS ARE THEIR WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF

WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD. IN THESE RAPIDLY DEEPENING

SYSTEMS...PRECIP SHIELDS TEND TO CONTRACT IN WHICH COULD BE THE

CASE SUNDAY-MONDAY.

THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

50-60KTS AT AND ABOVE 925MBS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE ENTIRE

REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. MIXING POTENTIAL PER

BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS WE TAP TO NEAR 40KTS. SO THE

POSSIBILITY FOR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AND WILL

CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE WSW. THE STORM BECOMES NEARLY

VERTICALLY STACKED OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A

SLOWER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

DEFORMATION AXIS SNOW SHOULD PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE HUDSON

RIVER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN ANOTHER LAST PIECE OF JET

ENERGY DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM EAST CENTRAL CANADA TO TAKE THIS STORM

RATHER QUICKLY OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RATHER QUICK ENDING OF THE SNOW FROM WEST

TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW

THROUGHOUT MONDAY.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST AS THE

COMBINATION OF MESOSCALE EFFECTS AND LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS WILL

HUGE IMPLICATIONS. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE FOR AROUND 1 FOOT OF SNOW

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...12 TO 18 INCHES FOR THE

HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR ADJACENT NEW ENGLAND COUNTIES WITH 7 TO 12

INCHES FOR THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND

15:1. AGAIN...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK AND THOSE

MESOSCALE PROCESSES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS TO SNOW

AMOUNTS.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Love your map Andy. It pretty closely matches my thinking. The detail with this storm may be the banding. BTW....what's with the 3-7" on the Tug Hill?

Geek, thanks for the 3-7" catch on the Tug...that was extraneous text. I also didn't want Tornado Girl to get too excited thinking that she was getting a late Christmas present from me or Mother Nature.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

I gotta ask another dumb question. I went out got some work done,came home put the plow on the truck, came in turned the heat in the garage on to get some last minute work done on some other vehicles, and I noticed the ALB NWS pulled the HWO highlight down for our area...did it change again away from us??? I am tired of putting this plow on my truck to take it off again...

PUT THE PLOW ON! :-)

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

SREF are impressive for ENY with the .3 and .5 probs > then or = 80%. Based much of the snow off of the 4km WRF from KBTV and our in house meso.

I think system during its RI period will slow and perhaps low up towards BID sound then curl NE west of the New England BM. 850 SD -5 anomaly winds should help a lot too especially from C & E New England. ENY is around -3 even -4 so not shabby either.

Further, since the Chief is coming in tomorrow I don't want to be too perfect or right; make him tweek things a bit so that he feels like he did some work.

Pretty SICK -3 to -5 SD winds @ 850 hPa from NE tomorrow night early thru early MONDAY AM from ENY east to SNE. Bomb checklist and pressure reduction scheme that I used to use when I was a marine met is quite impressive indicating potential for low 960's-960 oinker over or just west of CC Canal 12z Monday.

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FEFD17

FEFD17

Posted
Posted

Andy thanks!!! I realized how that probably sounded after I posted,and would be the last thing I wanted it to sound like.if it sounded that way to anyone I apologize now,that was not the intention.I JUST finished some more mechanical work on vehicles I was behind on and being Christmas I knew if there was a storm pending,I would be getting the call to goto work,not complaining just busy.Andy thanks for your time and dedication to this whole storm,I learned a few things, never take your eye off the ball with a storm(other forums this thing was fish food).long day tomorrow, better hit the rack Good Night Merry Christmas!!

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

Andy thanks!!! I realized how that probably sounded after I posted,and would be the last thing I wanted it to sound like.if it sounded that way to anyone I apologize now,that was not the intention.I JUST finished some more mechanical work on vehicles I was behind on and being Christmas I knew if there was a storm pending,I would be getting the call to goto work,not complaining just busy.Andy thanks for your time and dedication to this whole storm,I learned a few things, never take your eye off the ball with a storm(other forums this thing was fish food).long day tomorrow, better hit the rack Good Night Merry Christmas!!

I was just bustin' ya. I didn't take as anything bad or as complaining.

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

KBGM

00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM UP THE

EAST COAST WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD JUST TOUCHING SERN ZONES. AT

THE SAME TIME IT DELAYS MVG THE PCPN IN UNTIL AFT 21Z. DIFFERENCE

LOOKS TO EXIST BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS TO H5 LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT

CAN CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST NAM IS

SLOWER TO CLOSE OFF THIS FEATURE THO IT QUICKLY CATCHES UP TO ALL

OTHER GUIDANCE BY MIDNIGHT SUN NGT. ALL OTHER MODELS POINT TO A

RAPID DEEPENING SUN EVNG NR THE DELMARVA WITH THE 00Z NAM DELAYED

BY 3-5 HRS AND FURTHER EAST BFR IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE NY

BIGHT.

THE RESPONSE IS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TRACK TO THE SFC LOW

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
Posted

BGM update from a moment ago has added Otsego Co. to current watch outline...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

950 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 950 PM EST...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS CAN MAKE. 18Z GFS AND 21Z SREF SHOWED VRY LITTLE CHGS FM PRIOR RUNS WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC LOPRES ALONG ERN SEABOARD AND AXIS OF QPF BACK TO THE NW OF SYSTEM. HWVR 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND THROWN A MONKEY-WRENCH INTO WHAT APPEARED TO BE A FAIRLY "EASY" WARNING DECISION.

00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM UP THE EAST COAST WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD JUST TOUCHING SERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME IT DELAYS MVG THE PCPN IN UNTIL AFT 21Z. DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO EXIST BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS TO H5 LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT CAN CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST NAM IS SLOWER TO CLOSE OFF THIS FEATURE THO IT QUICKLY CATCHES UP TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE BY MIDNIGHT SUN NGT. ALL OTHER MODELS POINT TO A RAPID DEEPENING SUN EVNG NR THE DELMARVA WITH THE 00Z NAM DELAYED BY 3-5 HRS AND FURTHER EAST BFR IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE NY BIGHT.

THE RESPONSE IS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TRACK TO THE SFC LOW AND EVEN THO THE DIFFERENCE IS ONLY 50 MILES, IT WL LKLY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BTWN WARNING SNOWS ACRS THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS VS JUST NUISANCE SNOW. ALTHO THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN IT HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ADDN/L DROPSONDE AND SPECIAL RAOB DATA TO INGEST.

GIVEN THIS SCENARIO WL HOLD ONTO WINTER STORM WATCH BUT ADD IN OTSEGO CNTY AS POTENTIAL FOR 7+ INCHES LOOKS FAVORABLE OVR FAR SERN SXNS OF THE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHGS MADE TO GRIDS AT THIS POINT.

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Wx4cast

Wx4cast

Posted
Posted

BGM update from a moment ago has added Otsego Co. to current watch outline...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

950 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 950 PM EST...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HRS CAN MAKE. 18Z GFS AND 21Z SREF SHOWED VRY LITTLE CHGS FM PRIOR RUNS WITH PLACEMENT OF SFC LOPRES ALONG ERN SEABOARD AND AXIS OF QPF BACK TO THE NW OF SYSTEM. HWVR 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND THROWN A MONKEY-WRENCH INTO WHAT APPEARED TO BE A FAIRLY "EASY" WARNING DECISION.

00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT FURTHER EAST WITH TRACK OF SYSTEM UP THE EAST COAST WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD JUST TOUCHING SERN ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME IT DELAYS MVG THE PCPN IN UNTIL AFT 21Z. DIFFERENCE LOOKS TO EXIST BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENS TO H5 LOW AND HOW QUICKLY IT CAN CLOSE OFF AND DEEPEN ACRS THE MID-ATLANTIC. LATEST NAM IS SLOWER TO CLOSE OFF THIS FEATURE THO IT QUICKLY CATCHES UP TO ALL OTHER GUIDANCE BY MIDNIGHT SUN NGT. ALL OTHER MODELS POINT TO A RAPID DEEPENING SUN EVNG NR THE DELMARVA WITH THE 00Z NAM DELAYED BY 3-5 HRS AND FURTHER EAST BFR IT BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE NY BIGHT.

THE RESPONSE IS A SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST TRACK TO THE SFC LOW AND EVEN THO THE DIFFERENCE IS ONLY 50 MILES, IT WL LKLY MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BTWN WARNING SNOWS ACRS THE WRN CATS AND POCONOS VS JUST NUISANCE SNOW. ALTHO THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL RUN IT HAS THE ADDED BENEFIT OF ADDN/L DROPSONDE AND SPECIAL RAOB DATA TO INGEST.

GIVEN THIS SCENARIO WL HOLD ONTO WINTER STORM WATCH BUT ADD IN OTSEGO CNTY AS POTENTIAL FOR 7+ INCHES LOOKS FAVORABLE OVR FAR SERN SXNS OF THE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHGS MADE TO GRIDS AT THIS POINT.

I still think this will verify more west and NW a la the 18z and 12z runs had it.

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CNYWxGuy

CNYWxGuy

Posted
Posted

0z GEFS Mean is out, and overall QPF values remain similar, although just a tad east (atleast in C NY) on this run compared to the previous 3 runs. Would post the 24-Hr totals since those are most relevent and don't include any increments of .01-.1 which can sometimes inflate overall totals, but H48 still hits E NY, so here is the 72-Hr total...

00zgfsensemblep72072.gif

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