Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's running into very dry air. I expect the pivot NNW to resume and get the immediate CD into good snow. BGM radar is better as far as showing the west edge of pivoting comma head band. ALB radar is useless anywhere west/southwest of the Catskills peaks. Radar is looking rather unimpressive at th present time, but it is showing some positive signs south of LI. Overall I haven't gotten to excited over this storm since we are on the very back edge and I'll be happy with 3-6". Anything more than that is just a bonus that may help us get through some of the New Year's warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Currently sitting at 16.7/9.8 with a NW wind gusting to 25mph. Even with light snow the traveling conditions would be horrible tonight into the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar is looking rather unimpressive at th present time, but it is showing some positive signs south of LI. Overall I haven't gotten to excited over this storm since we are on the very back edge and I'll be happy with 3-6". Anything more than that is just a bonus that may help us get through some of the New Year's warmth. 3-6" seems about right with the way the radar and storm track looks now. almost like a february 2006 radar just pushed a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Very light snow has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 3-6" seems about right with the way the radar and storm track looks now. almost like a february 2006 radar just pushed a little further north. Hopefully that estimate should be on the low side. The radar presentation has changed drastically in the past 30 minutes....nice banding features throughout NJ and starting to move up the hudson valley. South of LI precipitation is exploding and pivoting NW. I just set my personal expectations low because of the bust potential being so close to the back edge of the heavier precip. I'd say that around 7PM we'll both have a much more postive outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hmm that must be separate and apart from the main banding. I had some ---sn at times today earlier...upper trough etc I guess. Left a dusting. Very light snow has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hmm that must be separate and apart from the main banding. I had some ---sn at times today earlier...upper trough etc I guess. Left a dusting. It has actually slipped in from the east as the precip is moving through VT better than through the CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What a waste of two months of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well of course this is a situation where we knew that we could not compete with SNE. The challenge and fun is to see how much we can get - and it's fun getting in on the large region-wide event even if you don't necessarily jackpot. I know you guys in the valley are in bad need of a good snowstorm. I can be magnanimous after the 46" last February. Hopefully that estimate should be on the low side. The radar presentation has changed drastically in the past 30 minutes....nice banding features throughout NJ and starting to move up the hudson valley. South of LI precipitation is exploding and pivoting NW. I just set my personal expectations low because of the bust potential being so close to the back edge of the heavier precip. I'd say that around 7PM we'll both have a much more postive outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Hmm that must be separate and apart from the main banding. I had some ---sn at times today earlier...upper trough etc I guess. Left a dusting. Rick He doesn't realize it but West has started up the snow guns. Its bogus. But let him enjoy it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What a waste of two months of cold Wrong thread to post in, like LES Whiners have their own thread, too! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Rick He doesn't realize it but West has started up the snow guns. Its bogus. But let him enjoy it. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Well of course this is a situation where we knew that we could not compete with SNE. The challenge and fun is to see how much we can get - and it's fun getting in on the large region-wide event even if you don't necessarily jackpot. I know you guys in the valley are in bad need of a good snowstorm. I can be magnanimous after the 46" last February. I suppose thats the reason for my negativity towards this storm, its just seems like its been so long since we got hit good and we usually get screwed one way or another. Maybe things will shape up nicely.. going by the hi res models we're right on track. sometime tomorrow am should be fun if that northwest push manifests. a few flurries out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I suppose thats the reason for my negativity towards this storm, its just seems like its been so long since we got hit good and we usually get screwed one way or another. Maybe things will shape up nicely.. going by the hi res models we're right on track. sometime tomorrow am should be fun if that northwest push manifests. a few flurries out there now Again I say March 4-6 2001 'nuff said. Night all going to play the latest version of NHL whatever with my son and then online with somebody somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WX goes in streaks I guess. I went to SUNYA at a time when some major major hits occurred. You chose a snow drought period. LOL Of course I went to SUNYA for my BA and MA off and on from 1986-1995 so I was bound to hit some snowy years. I suppose thats the reason for my negativity towards this storm, its just seems like its been so long since we got hit good and we usually get screwed one way or another. Maybe things will shape up nicely.. going by the hi res models we're right on track. sometime tomorrow am should be fun if that northwest push manifests. a few flurries out there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Night Andy ..enjoy See you in the AM ..here and in living color I guess... Again I say March 4-6 2001 'nuff said. Night all going to play the latest version of NHL whatever with my son and then online with somebody somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Rick He doesn't realize it but West has started up the snow guns. Its bogus. But let him enjoy it. ;-) If they blow 30" onto my property, I will claim to be the jackpot of this storm..........It's all what the ruler (yardstick) says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 WX goes in streaks I guess. I went to SUNYA at a time when some major major hits occurred. You chose a snow drought period. LOL Of course I went to SUNYA for my BA and MA off and on from 1986-1995 so I was bound to hit some snowy years. lol yeah I should have gone in the early 2000's ALB did quite well then. no problem because I live 10 miles away from SUNY and got 27 inches on 12/25/02. Anyways NYC looks to get absolutely crushed with this storm.. what a year for them. Lets push this precip shield 20 miles northwest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 from the SNE thread.. New MCD AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY/WRN LONG ISLAND...SRN VT...SWRN NH...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262326Z - 270530Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WWD OUT OF MA/CT THIS EVENING AND BECOME ALIGNED FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT/SWRN NH. FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWED A SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED SE OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB/HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS QUITE INTENSE...AND HAS PROVIDED A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE JERSEY COAST N-NEWD INTO SRN NY...CT...AND MA...WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE E-NELY LOW-LEVEL JET /WITH WIND SPEEDS AOA 50 KT/ IS FOCUSING A ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS. DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD...THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ZONE OF STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BECOME RE-ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND SWRN NH. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWEST HALF KM AGL WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...LEADING TO POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GARNER.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 from the SNE thread.. New MCD AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY/WRN LONG ISLAND...SRN VT...SWRN NH...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262326Z - 270530Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WWD OUT OF MA/CT THIS EVENING AND BECOME ALIGNED FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT/SWRN NH. FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWED A SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED SE OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB/HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS QUITE INTENSE...AND HAS PROVIDED A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE JERSEY COAST N-NEWD INTO SRN NY...CT...AND MA...WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE E-NELY LOW-LEVEL JET /WITH WIND SPEEDS AOA 50 KT/ IS FOCUSING A ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS. DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD...THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ZONE OF STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BECOME RE-ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND SWRN NH. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWEST HALF KM AGL WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...LEADING TO POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GARNER.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Fingers crossed...watching radar...watching the band pivot West is stressful, my mind balancing worries and meteorology. Feeling more confident now for at least 6". from the SNE thread.. New MCD AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY/WRN LONG ISLAND...SRN VT...SWRN NH...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262326Z - 270530Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WWD OUT OF MA/CT THIS EVENING AND BECOME ALIGNED FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT/SWRN NH. FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWED A SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED SE OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB/HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS QUITE INTENSE...AND HAS PROVIDED A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE JERSEY COAST N-NEWD INTO SRN NY...CT...AND MA...WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE E-NELY LOW-LEVEL JET /WITH WIND SPEEDS AOA 50 KT/ IS FOCUSING A ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS. DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD...THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ZONE OF STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BECOME RE-ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND SWRN NH. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWEST HALF KM AGL WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...LEADING TO POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GARNER.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wrong thread to post in, like LES Whiners have their own thread, too! ;-) Opps my bad light flurries here looks like a blow by to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Steady light snow here. Pretty windy. Flake size increasing. Only a dusting so far, but heavier returns moving into eastern Albany County. The Taconic Parkway must be awesome right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Steady light snow here. Pretty windy. Flake size increasing. Only a dusting so far, but heavier returns moving into eastern Albany County. The Taconic Parkway must be awesome right now! Light snow has begun falling here as well...not even a dusting yet, but things have gotten underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgottmann Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Light snow has begun falling here as well...not even a dusting yet, but things have gotten underway. I saw a stray flurry here in Malta. Waiting for it but concerned I will be too far N and W for the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Steady light wind whipped snow with decent size flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Just a stray flurry once in a while imby..So close yet so far .. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ENX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyR Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 Really intense snow and wind here. Just got in from a walk and some of the drifts are already knee deep. Needed ski goggles to walk into the wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 I'm ready to throw the towel on this one. The enhanced echoes just can't make it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2010 Share Posted December 27, 2010 My gf in freehold nj has more then a foot so far, i should of went down there with her like she asked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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