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July 15-20 Severe Weather


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Yeah I saw that on vis too. Why aren't you out today?

Waiting on my chase partner he's leaving Eagle's Crest as soon as dinner is over but they haven't eaten yet, I'm gonna wait another half hour, I just wanted to stay local today and I don't feel like driving that far away we'll probably head down 2 to just east of Devils Lake and see if something goes.

Edit: I am getting antsy though..... I hate seeing things this close and not being out.

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Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

629 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

WESTERN WELLS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF GOODRICH...OR 52 MILES NORTHEAST

OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

HURDSFIELD...CHASELEY AND BOWDON.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. IF YOU ARE IN THE

WARNING AREA GET TO A BASEMENT AND STAY THERE UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS IS A SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...

SUPERCELLS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL AND

DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO SAFETY

INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM

ON THE LOWEST FLOOR.

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Looks like a mini-supercell up north of McClusky... has had some weak rotation present on a couple scans now and the rotation has been present all the way up to the 3.5 tilt. Its at least pretty cool. I'm a fan of mini-sup's.

Edit... of course, as I say that... the mini-sup begins falling apart or is starting to cycle and doesn't look very organized anymore.

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I know most are focused on tonight's storms in North Dakota and Montana, but anyone else excited by the prospects of late Sunday night through Monday in the Western Great Lakes?

Could be more big wind producers for someone in the MSP, MSN, MKE, ORD regions, and Skilling seems to be intrigued, as he has posted several updates in the last day on his FB page.

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Possible multi-vortex signature on the tor warned storm now?

If you look at Tilt 0.9 you'll see that the extremely strong circulation indicated on Tilt 0.5 is not there, thus there is no continuity. It's the radar being screwy. Radar cannot detect the specific tornado type or shape. However, within close range of the radar sites and with the presence of a violent couplet, you can normally tell the approximate width of the tornado since the super-res upgrade a few years back.

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If you look at Tilt 0.9 you'll see that the extremely strong circulation indicated on Tilt 0.5 is not there, thus there is no continuity. It's the radar being screwy.

There was rotation on the 1.5 tilt, albeit weaker, then stronger rotation again on 2.5 and 3.5. I know about radar limitations... I just got finished with the NWS radar course. At this distance, even with the super res, it would almost be impossible to resolve a tornado's width. Also, you are correct, a radar cannot resolve a typical type of tornado usually, but larger multi-vortex tornadoes can sometime show up differently on radar.

Edit: Sorry, you said at close range... my bad.

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APX (northern, lower MI), regarding Severe wx:

STILL A FAIRLY INTERESTING SETUP FOR CONVECTION SUN NIGHT THROUGH

MIDDAY MON AS ABOVE-MENTIONED COOL FRONT SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PER

SETUP...ANTICIPATE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF

STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE APPROACH OF UPPER WAVE. GIVEN

INCREASING DEEP SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS AND STRONG DCAPE PROFILES UP

THAT WAY...CAN FORESEE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS

THROUGH THE EVENING...HELPED ALONG BY MODEST SHOT OF RIGHT ENTRANCE

REGION JET DYNAMICS ALOFT AS 110 KT JETLET ROUNDS THE RIDGE. BIGGEST

QUESTION FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS JUST WHERE PRIMARY MCS WILL

END UP. STARTING TO GET A LITTLE CONCERNED MAIN MCS MAY TRACK JUST

WEST OF THE AREA (A VERY FAVORED TRACK CLIMATOLOGICALLY) BASED UPON

SLOWER NORTH/EASTWARD EXPANSION OF STRONGEST CAPPING PER 12Z MODEL

SUITE...SUGGESTING BEST LOW CIN/HIGH CAPE CORRIDOR MAY LIE JUST WEST

OF LAKE MICHIGAN. STILL...THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED...AS

IMPRESSIVE DEEP SHEAR AND JET DYNAMICS ARGUE A SEVERE MCS/DERECHO

MAY WELL GET UNDERWAY NOT TOO FAR FROM HERE. ACTUALLY INTERESTING

TO GO BACK AND LOOK AT LAST SEVERE DERECHO WHICH PLOWED THROUGH HERE

BACK ON JULY 13...1995...WHICH HAD A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO WHAT IS

PROGGED HERE.

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Latest scan shows a possible debris ball in the hook....

I hadn't really considered how alike a DRC and a Debris Call can look visually on base reflectivity until this point, but I'm glad you brought that up. DRCs are much more common then debris balls. In fact, we usually only saw one or two debris ball signatures a year during the past few seasons. Obviously this year is a big exception. Dual-Pol products such as differential reflectivity and correlation coefficient will be able to detect debris signatures that conventional reflectivity was not designed to differentiate, but there is still an easy way to tell if what you're looking at is just precipitation, such as a DRC, or debris from a tornadic circulation. This image was taken 45 minutes ago showing a classic DRC.

DRC.png

This image (below) is from the April 27 Super Outbreak as a supercell was approaching the Birmingham Metro. This shows a classic debris ball signature along with a couplet exceeding 200 knots. This storm was close enough to the radar site that the radar was actually able to pick up debris being lofted up into the updraft. Most debris ball signatures can only be seen within 30 miles of a radar site and will have a obvious couplet with it that will extend through several radar tilts. The signature (at least on conventional reflectivity) often appears with significant tornadoes moving through a dense area (such as a forest and/or populated area). When determining if you are in fact seeing a debris ball, make sure you have a couplet in the exact location as the signature.

22381.png

The storm in North Dakota is located in a very rural area, so it is nearly impossible to get a debris ball in that area unless it were to impact one of the sparsely-placed towns in the area. I hope this helps you in the future!

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I know most are focused on tonight's storms in North Dakota and Montana, but anyone else excited by the prospects of late Sunday night through Monday in the Western Great Lakes?

Could be more big wind producers for someone in the MSP, MSN, MKE, ORD regions, and Skilling seems to be intrigued, as he has posted several updates in the last day on his FB page.

ya, Here's hoping for a tall maple crashing through your living room. Severe enough for ya? Maybe no power for 4-5 days will add to your excitement.:thumbsup:

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ya, Here's hoping for a tall maple crashing through your living room. Severe enough for ya? Maybe no power for 4-5 days will add to your excitement.:thumbsup:

Geez, I'm just asking. Most of you are the ones who want to track big tornadoes, so being intrigued by thunderstorm development is nothing out of the ordinary. I have yet to get any good pictures of thunderstorms approaching, and that's really all I want. Beyond that, I don't need/want to be out in a storm.

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Geez, I'm just asking. Most of you are the ones who want to track big tornadoes, so being intrigued by thunderstorm development is nothing out of the ordinary. I have yet to get any good pictures of thunderstorms approaching, and that's really all I want. Beyond that, I don't need/want to be out in a storm.

not me. Love the good look of a cumuli-nimbus cloud and the sound of thunder and lightning. But anymore they scare me. I've seen the wrath......plus your from God's country. All is good.:scooter:

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