Scott747 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Might see a slight shift N with the upcoming package, especially now with the GFDL further N. Intensity could see a bump as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 6Z GFS ensembles have sub 996 mb storms from one end of the Gulf to another. I'm still holding out some hope for a Western Florida chase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 12z GFS near Cancun/Cozumel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Heads NW/WNW towards the lower Texas coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Half an inch of rain at my yard, I'd prefer more, but 9 days out, and less than 100 miles from 1.25 inches or more, I'm glass 7/16th full optimistic. And assuming GFS beyond resolution is underplaying intensity a bit, a nice Dolly Deux for the i-Cyclone team would be cool. And I promise not to drive down in a home made i-Cyclone fan club shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 Heads NW/WNW towards the lower Texas coast. OK, so get ready. No excuses if it comes right to your doorstep, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Well I will pay 2 bucks for Reed's peep show if bullets are pinging of the Dominator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Canadian says Vermillion Parish, and Black's Oyster Bar in Abbeville is open under new management and supposedly as good as ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Like we were talking about on email. Track is nudged a tad further S and increase in intensity. If the upper level conditions are supportive enough per the norm the fuel is more than ready on its track towards the YP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Okay, I've begun archiving. . . . . . .......(j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 18z GFDL with the sharp hook over Western Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The GFDL team was told to make the EPac performance the same as the Atlantic standards. The above is the result. They should have been clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Okay, I've begun archiving. . . . . . .......(j/k) 18z GFDL with the sharp hook over Western Cuba. Darn-- I was gettin' all ginned up for a Yucatan deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Darn-- I was gettin' all ginned up for a Yucatan deal. Most 12Z and 18Z GFS ensemble members are liking a Mexico double tapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 18z GFDL with the sharp hook over Western Cuba. That's Gustav-esque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 lmao So this guy is thinking about driving that ridiculous vehicle all the way down to the YP and also worries about the cartel area in something that screams attention.... Good grief. He should be putting his phD to better uses than he has so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Track is a bit further N after the 18z GFDL and HWRF runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Could have a Gulfer on our hands possibly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS TAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK... MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Stewart used the term "major hurricane" in the discussion and the forecast is a conservative 85 mph. If Ernesto makes it to the Western Caribbean, we could have a decent hurricane on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Needs to survive the next 3-4 days first, then the fun could begin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Test... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z GFS still has the YP and across towards Tampico.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Definite tingles now. Yucatan or Gulf-- I'll take either. Gettin' a little excited. Scott: you up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z Euro looks like Belize and the very extreme southern GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 0z Euro looks like Belize and the very extreme southern GOM. Yo. 'Sup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 I see Phil lurking. I'm expecting him to rain on the parade and talking about degeneration to an open wave at any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Yo. 'Sup? Nada. Internal clock woke me to check out the Euro. Headed back to sleep. Talk with you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 By the way... Should I chase Enresto, I'll be making detailed updates on the news section of the iCyclone Website-- so be sure to bookmark this page: http://icyclone.com/now/ And of course I'll be updating on American, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 I see Phil lurking. I'm expecting him to rain on the parade and talking about degeneration to an open wave at any moment. Way ahead of you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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