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Jonesing for a Chase


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Half an inch of rain at my yard, I'd prefer more, but 9 days out, and less than 100 miles from 1.25 inches or more, I'm glass 7/16th full optimistic.

And assuming GFS beyond resolution is underplaying intensity a bit, a nice Dolly Deux for the i-Cyclone team would be cool.

And I promise not to drive down in a home made i-Cyclone fan club shirt.

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lmao

So this guy is thinking about driving that ridiculous vehicle all the way down to the YP and also worries about the cartel area in something that screams attention....

Good grief.

He should be putting his phD to better uses than he has so far...

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BY

DAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP

ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT

DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE

SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS

TAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL

MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS.

HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED

SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT

AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE

COMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND

DECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO

OCCUR. IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...

MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS

INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY

MODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN

THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.

HOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN

WHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE

INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.

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