free_man Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 Okay readily admitting to reaching out in time here, but I'm thinking at least one if not too strong to severe thunderstorm outbreaks on the distant horizon. Talked about it a couple days ago when the longer range ensembles were starting to hone in onto D8-12 day range, post- breakout from the mP crap and into a more typical zonal flow. Past few runs of the Euro are starting to shed some light onto next weekend, anyway. The 12z gfs ensembles show signs of a flatter and more early summer-like pattern. Generally late June into July is our "primetime" before shifting up into CNE and NNE for August. 12z Euro For now, obviously all speculation and not much detail. The UL pattern should at least return to more summer-like weather by next weekend and given the overall behavior of the season thus far, we should be rocking and rolling again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 It does look like the heat ridge tries to build in after next weekend. Perhaps some more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 It does look like the heat ridge tries to build in after next weekend. Perhaps some more chances. Perfect timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 12, 2011 Author Share Posted June 12, 2011 probably the most important feature will be the SE ridge starting to pop back up. That should help things along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2011 Share Posted June 12, 2011 At this point let's just sun and temps back into the 80's..Enough is enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 12z Euro looks much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 12z Euro looks much improved. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 take all the heat you want. It's up to 100/68 in Norman now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 take all the heat you want. It's up to 100/68 in Norman now Heat helps if you want convection - duh... But, the helicity and vertical temperature differential are in concert more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 Heat helps if you want convection - duh... But, the helicity and vertical temperature differential are in concert more important. That and BL moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2011 Share Posted June 13, 2011 That and BL moisture Heh, yeah probably should have said vertical thermaldynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Going to be seroius MCS/ derecho potential next Sun-Wed...timing is tricky. Maybe a sick MCC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 Better model agreement on the risk of a decent severe outbreak next Thursday or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 This is probably one of the best chances you'll get to get an eml advected into the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 This is probably one of the best chances you'll get to get an eml advected into the northeast We've already had 2 this season ..both producing high end damage in the TOR and CT's worst wind damage ever from a squall lines of thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 VERY excited about the upcoming potential...think it could be fairly active if things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 VERY excited about the upcoming potential...think it could be fairly active if things work out. The good news is we will be in the absolute peak of severe season and sun angle next week, in a notoriously dangerous year, so who knows. The U/A looks promising. There will be a few problems to look for though...including whether or not the front washes out/loses steam and height falls aren't so impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 12z GGEM looks okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 The good news is we will be in the absolute peak of severe season and sun angle next week, in a notoriously dangerous year, so who knows. The U/A looks promising. There will be a few problems to look for though...including whether or not the front washes out/loses steam and height falls aren't so impressive. One thing I don't like is the fact the the ridge actually builds further east than what we saw last time...it builds in a position where it normally does. This allows for sharper digging of the trough to our west and heights aloft to really build...this virtually gives us a unidirectional flow aloft...don't get me wrong, we can still get some decent severe like this but I don't think we'd see anything like we did earlier in the year. This type of setup though can lead to some pretty potent squall lines, especially if there is a great deal of instability. Kind of hard though to get good lapse rates in here though with this sort of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 Hi! I normally post over in the Central/Western Forum as I live in Wisconsin, but next week will be traveling along the Maine Coast. What do the prospects look like for convection in that area for the system later next week at this time? Do you anticipate a decent chance for severe in that region, or does the Maine Coast present many of the same problems with instability that areas right along Lake Michigan experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 the maine coast really isnt the place to be Hi! I normally post over in the Central/Western Forum as I live in Wisconsin, but next week will be traveling along the Maine Coast. What do the prospects look like for convection in that area for the system later next week at this time? Do you anticipate a decent chance for severe in that region, or does the Maine Coast present many of the same problems with instability that areas right along Lake Michigan experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Most of the foreign models seem to bring the wf and warmer airmass in, the gfs seems to keep the wf further sw. Maybe a bias playing in? The 00z gfs ensembles seem more bullish with the warmth than the op. I still think we see strong or maybe a few severe storms later this week, at least something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Man that low pressure center basically sits over the great lakes for a couple days and it takes us forever to really get us into the warm sector. Per the gfs it appears that Saturday may be the day that we may get some action. Ofcourse this is all subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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