12z model runs

[Allsnow]

I think people will be a little surprised at the snow shower activity and occasional strong snow squalls for 3-4 days next week.

I metion that in the 00z thread.....take what we can get and enjoy it. Perhaps it one of those deal where we wake-up to dusting and coatings..

[tombo82685]

storm cutting acorss hr 204

[MJO812]

I metion that in the 00z thread.....take what we can get and enjoy it. Perhaps it one of those deal where we wake-up to dusting and coatings..

I would gladly take that.

[tombo82685]

lgt snow hr 216 for the region, miller b hr 228 lgt to mod snows nyc to boston

[tombo82685]

anoither potent shortwave right behind it mod snow in stlouis region

[Allsnow]

lgt snow hr 216 for the region, miller b hr 228 lgt to mod snows nyc to boston

What is the date on that storm?

[tornadojay]

cold shot is a glancing blow.. all of a sudden, next weekend doesn't look all that cold anymore.. 850 temps are only down to the zero to -4 range.

[MJO812]

cold shot is a glancing blow.. all of a sudden, next weekend doesn't look all that cold anymore.. 850 temps are only down to the zero to -4 range.

Very good sign. Storms would be able to get up here.

[tombo82685]

deep trof carved out over east at hr 264 with lgt snow showers through out

[tornadojay]

looks like it would be a few inches possibly, verbatim.. it's a quick mover.

[tombo82685]

another southern va nc clipper looks likie post hr 300

[Allsnow]

From what they where talking about in the sne thread the last few days thqat the euro and gfs ensembles have been hinting at a miller b system in the 11th-13th time range

[tombo82685]

late in this run looks like big time over running potentials

[NaoPos]

cold shot is a glancing blow.. all of a sudden, next weekend doesn't look all that cold anymore.. 850 temps are only down to the zero to -4 range.

and it continues

[tornadojay]

late in this run looks like big time over running potentials

yes.. definitely... there is quite a sharp thermal gradient across the whole northern U.S.

[bluewave]

Great pattern for lake effect snows.We'll probably end up seeing some snow showers make it all the way down to the coast.

[SnoSki14]

I just see several weak clippers moving through, the pattern isn't really favorable for any of them to amplify off the coast and blow up. Purely northern stream systems lack moisture and energy and they need something extra to get going, a +PNA ridge generally does the trick.

[easternsnowman]

cold shot is a glancing blow.. all of a sudden, next weekend doesn't look all that cold anymore.. 850 temps are only down to the zero to -4 range.

Models again flip flopping...lol

[Manny]

The long range looks promising. Much stronger storm activity, more chances for snow.

[wederwarrior]

and it continues

Flippy floppy....or on a boat (OTS)?

[MJO812]

12z GFS soundings.

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KNYC.txt

I wish there was measureable snow.

[MJO812]

Road trip to Buffalo?

http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_Kbuf.txt

[Parsley]

I think its about time to break out photos and videos from last winter. Take a trip down memory lane these next few cold, but dry weeks.

Those of you really craving snow, I think its about time to map out your road trip to Erie/Chautaqua counties and Jefferson/Oswego counties up in NY. (you read my mind Snow88) .

After spending 4 years in the lake-effect snow belt region about 10 years ago, I can say it doesn't get much better than that.

[earthlight]

It's encouraging to see the GFS global ens spread very strongly hinting at a more west based NAO

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f348.gif

[RowanBrandon]

12z CRAS shows the low retrograding all the way down towards NYC.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_m_loop.html

[earthlight]

Impressive long range signal

[cleetussnow]

Impressive long range signal

That cold is is pointed straight at us..easy to imagine something out ahead of it making things interesting around here.

[earthlight]

That cold is is pointed straight at us..easy to imagine something out ahead of it making things interesting around here.

Check out the positioning of the NAO ridge as well. It's in fantasy land but it's well modeled by several ensemble suites.

[phlwx]

Damn euro at hour 240 is a mixed bag event.

hopefully (for you all) this isn't a "cold goes out, rain comes in, rain goes out, cold comes back" storm...

[SnowGoose69]

Damn euro at hour 240 is a mixed bag event.

hopefully (for you all) this isn't a "cold goes out, rain comes in, rain goes out, cold comes back" storm...

That would be a major snow event initially for everyone with a changeover to PL/FZRA inland and rain at the coast, but there are numerous reasons to believe that even if that exact scenario unfolded it would evolve differently...the Euro likely holds the system back a bit too long over the central area of the US (a typical bias, although its not the classic SW U.S. bias, its probably still too slow advancing out)...as a result it allows the 50/50 low to get a tad more east and north than would probably occur...hence the storm is able to take a more inland track...if the Euro is even 300 miles to slow with the system advancing out of the Plains then the entire system is snowier....you would still see a good 4-7 inches of snow in a setup such as that for places like NYC/PHL before the changeover occurred due to the strong high which would likely allow significant overrunning...see my postings of the 12/2003 and 01/1991 events in the Euro thread which were similar to what the 12Z Euro showed.