LakeEffectKing Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Golfball sized hail at my house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 The pics aren't showing up LEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0551 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL PA...CNTRL/NERN NY...WRN VT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213... VALID 262251Z - 262345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 213 CONTINUES. SEVERAL STRONG-SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL PA AND CNTRL NY...WITH MANY DISPLAYING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING DMGG WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG N TO 1000-1500 J/KG S PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS. A WARM FRONT SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED FROM 30 N SYR TO 40 E UCA TO 30 SE GFL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH NELY STORM MOTION RESULTING IN STORMS CROSSING THE FRONT AND QUICKLY BECOMING ELEVATED/WEAKENING. ONE STORM THAT HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY HAS MOVED INTO WARREN COUNTY...THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER IT IS SURFACE BASED GIVEN A COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THIS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS AS IT MOVES ENE. THE RISK FOR STRONG-SVR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WATCH /EVEN WITH THE LOSS OF SFC HEATING/...AS LLJ/WAA STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING AND MAINTAINS SBCAPE. HI-RESOLUTION SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE WRF-NMM AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODELS/ INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY INITIATE OVER SWRN PA AND CONGEAL INTO A LINE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IN CASE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME OR A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING. ..ROGERS.. 04/26/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 WTF does it post like that? ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 The pics aren't showing up LEK Should work now...I was posting from my Droid, and am still learning the fastest way to get pics from off FB, to my phone, to imageshack, and posted here! I'm sure there is a much better (easier) way!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Oh wow nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Should work now...I was posting from my Droid, and am still learning the fastest way to get pics from off FB, to my phone, to imageshack, and posted here! I'm sure there is a much better (easier) way!! Very nice George! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Very nice George! Thanks! This was taken by my wife approximately 1/2 hour after it fell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 Latest SPC SREF continues to indicate some very nice potential these next two days, with tomorrow mainly a chunk of NY/PA then Thursday E NY/PA and perhaps western SNE...the only issue is the degree of instability. What's going to suck the next few days is ML lapse rates may not be as great as today so that alone will decrease the level at which the atmosphere can destabilize. Anyways, if we can get sufficient heating over the next two days there could be some decent localized severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Oh wow nice Kinda "cheater" hail, with lots of aggregates fused together, but still pretty impressive for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 26, 2011 Share Posted April 26, 2011 Latest SPC SREF continues to indicate some very nice potential these next two days, with tomorrow mainly a chunk of NY/PA then Thursday E NY/PA and perhaps western SNE...the only issue is the degree of instability. What's going to suck the next few days is ML lapse rates may not be as great as today so that alone will decrease the level at which the atmosphere can destabilize. Anyways, if we can get sufficient heating over the next two days there could be some decent localized severe. You guys should have a solid two days of potential....out here in CNY, tomorrow may be last go around.....but honestly, with about 8+" of rain the last 3 weeks, we could skip a few potential events.....unless someone has a combine harvester for my lawn in a couple weeks when it'll be dry enough to cut!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 You guys should have a solid two days of potential....out here in CNY, tomorrow may be last go around.....but honestly, with about 8+" of rain the last 3 weeks, we could skip a few potential events.....unless someone has a combine harvester for my lawn in a couple weeks when it'll be dry enough to cut!! What really complicates the forecast, especially out my way is the southerly winds at the sfc...I have Long Island Sound to my south and southerly sfc winds and southerly low-level winds means a flow right off the Sound, which this time of year is still pretty cool. This could really keep things rather stable throughout much of CT (except Litchfield and NW Fairfield counties). Climo would suggest that's what will happen. However, looking at forecast soundings for HFD/BDL the atmosphere is only completely saturated in the lowest 900mb or so...above this the atmosphere is actually fairly dry...this leads me to believe we have a chance to actually see a bit more sun than what models are showing. If this holds true though the next question is what are we looking at for timing of the front? I could def see E NY/PA as solid threat areas with perhaps extreme western MA/CT but threat decreasing rapidly east of that as the airmass is much more stable...elevated storms would be possible though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Got a picture of shelf cloud heading towards Oswego a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 BEAUTIFUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 TORNADO WARNINGNYC077-270245-/O.NEW.KBGM.TO.W.0004.110427T0159Z-110427T0245Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY959 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN OTSEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...* UNTIL 1045 PM EDT.* AT 957 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR LAURENS... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.* THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... HARTWICK AND MILFORD BY 1005 PM EDT... HYDE PARK AND INDEX BY 1010 PM EDT... BOWERSTOWN...COOPERSTOWN AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELK CREEK BY 1015 PM EDT... MIDDLEFIELD BY 1020 PM EDT... CHERRY VALLEY BY 1030 PM EDT...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TOTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT [email protected]/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENTOR AN INTERIOR ROOM...AWAY FROM WINDOWS.&&LAT...LON 4250 7506 4262 7519 4288 7477 4284 7466 4282 7465 4279 7466 4273 7466 4267 7464TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 236DEG 38KT 4259 7507$$DJP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Confirmed tornado on the ground near Rome, NY Here was a video looking north towards Rome. Thought I'd catch something. Cam needs to be up on my anemometer mast I think. Someday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Got a picture of shelf cloud heading towards Oswego a few hours ago. Very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 27, 2011 Author Share Posted April 27, 2011 My friend from NH is coming down tomorrow night and were going chasing in eastern NY on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Surprised this thread doesn't have more action. The latest AFD out of CTP is quite concerning.... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/... -- Changed Discussion --BKN-OVC STRATO CU CONTINUING TO THIN OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL RIDGE AND VALLEY THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO BREAK ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY WHERE AN UPSTREAM FEED OF LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE MD/VA PIEDMONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. MU CAPES ALREADY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN HIGH TERRAIN...AND THIS INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CLOUDS BREAK. STRONG SOUTHERLY/SW WINDS ALOFT...RESULTING IN A BROAD LOOP HODOGRAPH /COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING CAPE/...IS READILY SEEN IN RARELY SEEN 0-1KM EHI VALUES OF 3-4M2/S2 LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 19-22Z. IF TSRA CELLS CAN FIRE AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING...CURRENTLY WEAKENING SQUALL LINE FROM CENTRAL OHIO...SUPER-CELLULAR STRUCTURE WILL BE QUITE EASILY ATTAINED. ...FROM EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION... 2 TO 3 STANDARD-DEVIATION ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION THROUGH FROPA WED NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WRN PA THIS AFTN...AND WILL PROBABLY KICK OFF OR MAKE MORE-WIDESPREAD ANY ON- GOING CONVECTION. A LOOK AT THE HODOGRAPHS FROM THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS AFTN/EVENING ARE EYE-POPPING. AT UNV...A FANTASTIC CURVE WITH 50KTS STORM MOTION TO THE NE. HELICITY IN THE 200-400 RANGE AND CAPE AROUND 1000. THESE VALUES ARE ENOUGH TO PROMPT A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH FOR A MOD RISK...BUT NOT YET...AS FOCUS MECHS TOUGH TO FIND. HIGHER CAPES WITH THE HIGHER MSTR TO THE SOUTH...BUT MTS AND THE APPCH OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP BEST CHCS FOR THE TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL AND WRN MTS THIS AFTN. THE STORM MOTIONS WOULD RIDE THEM UP INTO THE NRN AND NERN MTS AGAIN. THUS...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN - ESP IN THE PLACES WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN THESE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPS VERY MUCH ABOVE NORMALS...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD AGAIN PRECLUDE ANY RECORDS FROM BEING SET.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Lifted Index to -5, MUCAPE of >1000J/kg, increasing 0-6km shear, increasing 0-1km EHI. Just need a bit more instability it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 And there pops the tornado watch, not surprising after reading the SPC discussion, but exciting none the less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 And there pops the tornado watch, not surprising after reading the SPC discussion, but exciting none the less! When do you think the storms will start popping more? Radar is surprisingly quiet in much of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 543 PM EDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OLEAN... * UNTIL 615 PM EDT * AT 537 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTH OF ST. BONAVENTURE...OR 6 MILES EAST OF BRADFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WESTON MILLS... HINSDALE... CUBA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted April 27, 2011 Share Posted April 27, 2011 Nothing really here. A rumble or two of thunder and some wind for about 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 80-100kt couplet about to cross the thruway east of utica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Wow... what a night! And it's still on-going this morning across C & E NY with lots of Flash Flooding and Severe Weather... Potentially significant tornado damage occurred early this morning near Elmira and Ithaca in Chemung-Tompkins counties... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 530 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 0130 AM TORNADO SWARTWOOD 42.23N 76.62W 04/28/2011 CHEMUNG NY LAW ENFORCEMENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS POSSIBLE TORNADO. 6 HOMES DAMAGED AND NOT HABITABLE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. 0140 AM TORNADO 1 NE DANBY 42.36N 76.47W 04/28/2011 TOMPKINS NY EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO...4 TO 5 HOMES WITH MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE 0150 AM TSTM WND DMG SPENCER 42.22N 76.49W 04/28/2011 TIOGA NY PUBLIC NUMEROUS TREES DOWN 0216 AM TSTM WND DMG GROTON 42.59N 76.37W 04/28/2011 TOMPKINS NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE POSSIBLE TORNADO. SEVERAL TREES. ANSD POLES DOWN...ROOF OFF HOUSE. And now another report of potentially significant tornado damage this morning. This one just coming in from Frankfort in Herkimer County... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 609 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0500 AM TORNADO FRANKFORT 43.04N 75.07W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOUSE ON BROCKWAY ROAD. 0500 AM TORNADO FRANKFORT CENTER 43.05N 75.14W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY TRAINED SPOTTER POSSIBLE TORNADO. MULTIPLE TREES UPROOTED AND A SIDE OF HOUSE PLASTERED IN MUD. 0515 AM TSTM WND DMG FRANKFORT 43.04N 75.07W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY TRAINED SPOTTER MULTIPLE TREES DOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 The vast bulk of it was west of here I guess. Just before I went to sleep that line from central NY was falling to pieces as it reached us. Now this morning I see some stuff moving in here, but I doubt it can be severe at this time of the day. Timing probably not optimal.... That said ...we are a swamp here after the numerous rains in April and the last two days of warm wx was so ovc and damp that it was useless in terms of drying things out. My lawn has come on strong and probably could be cut in a few days, but I wouldn't dare take the lawn tractor on it now ---probably sink in six inches in low spots. The horses are residing in a foot deep muddy swamp out back. Wow... what a night! And it's still on-going this morning across C & E NY with lots of Flash Flooding and Severe Weather... Potentially significant tornado damage occurred early this morning near Elmira and Ithaca in Chemung-Tompkins counties... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 530 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 0130 AM TORNADO SWARTWOOD 42.23N 76.62W 04/28/2011 CHEMUNG NY LAW ENFORCEMENT EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS POSSIBLE TORNADO. 6 HOMES DAMAGED AND NOT HABITABLE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. 0140 AM TORNADO 1 NE DANBY 42.36N 76.47W 04/28/2011 TOMPKINS NY EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO...4 TO 5 HOMES WITH MAJOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE 0150 AM TSTM WND DMG SPENCER 42.22N 76.49W 04/28/2011 TIOGA NY PUBLIC NUMEROUS TREES DOWN 0216 AM TSTM WND DMG GROTON 42.59N 76.37W 04/28/2011 TOMPKINS NY FIRE DEPT/RESCUE POSSIBLE TORNADO. SEVERAL TREES. ANSD POLES DOWN...ROOF OFF HOUSE. And now another report of potentially significant tornado damage this morning. This one just coming in from Frankfort in Herkimer County... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 609 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0500 AM TORNADO FRANKFORT 43.04N 75.07W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOUSE ON BROCKWAY ROAD. 0500 AM TORNADO FRANKFORT CENTER 43.05N 75.14W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY TRAINED SPOTTER POSSIBLE TORNADO. MULTIPLE TREES UPROOTED AND A SIDE OF HOUSE PLASTERED IN MUD. 0515 AM TSTM WND DMG FRANKFORT 43.04N 75.07W 04/28/2011 HERKIMER NY TRAINED SPOTTER MULTIPLE TREES DOWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Bit breezy out in WNY: NIAGARA FALLS PTSUNNY 54 43 66 SW45G75 29.44R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted April 28, 2011 Share Posted April 28, 2011 Mmm refreshing...get it east! Bit breezy out in WNY: NIAGARA FALLS PTSUNNY 54 43 66 SW45G75 29.44R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.