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Historic Tornado Outbreak April 27, 2011


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another fatality

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

948 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0654 AM TSTM WND DMG PISGAH 34.68N 85.85W

04/27/2011 JACKSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTS OF STUCTURAL DAMAGE...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...AND

POWERLINES DOWN ALONG A PATH FROM PISGAH TO FLAT ROCK

NEAR CR 120. ONE DEATH OCCURRED IN THE PISGAH AREA.

POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE.

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yet another

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

950 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0235 AM TORNADO 5 SSW EUPORA 33.48N 89.31W

04/27/2011 CHOCTAW MS EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 1 FATAL, 7 INJ *** UPDATE...EMERGENCY MANAGER

CONFIRMS 1 FATALITY IN A CAMPER AT A STATE PARK.

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE REPORTED IN THE AREA OF CHOCTAW COUNTY

NEAR THE BORDER WITH WEBSTER COUNTY. MANY TREES DOWN

ACROSS ROADS AND ON TOPS OF HOUSES. MOBILE HOMES

DESTROYED AND SOME HOMES DAMAGED...ESPECIALLY ALONG

HEBRON ROAD. AT LEAST 7 INJURIES REPORTED...AND DAMAGE

AND INJURY REPORTS STILL COMING IN.

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TN

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN

1041 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

SOUTHEASTERN MAURY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1037 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR

LAWRENCEBURG. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING NORTHEAST AT

70 MPH.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS

INTO AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271545Z - 271715Z

A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO

WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS

NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY

QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO

MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE

VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE

SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE

PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE

SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD

OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA.

AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY

NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A

VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON

IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT

HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM

GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY

CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY

EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

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Over eastern OH we have a strong S/SSE surface flow and the atmosphere is steadily further destabilizing with the RUC showing SBCAPE currently about 500-1000+. Cells ahead of the cold pool have trended more discrete. Shear profiles should be able to support supercells although with a storm motion progged to the NNE, better inflow potential probably won't be realized. I think, over the next few hours, there is the potential for isolated tornadoes, but more so a hail and wind threat.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON...

UPDATE

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL

EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE

CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT

IMAGERY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL

SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING

THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS

OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE

CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL

LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY

WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD

AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING

MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND

SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET

HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW

HRS.

EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE

WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO

POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)

ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.

STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS

SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED

SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW

DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF

STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID

SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL

WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

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Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected.

Still looks like it should be the most significant outbreak in quite awhile, though, especially counting yesterday/last night's tornados.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

1051 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADO OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS

AFTERNOON...

UPDATE

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH OUR THINKING AND THE OVERALL

EVOLUTION FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE

CLEAR BASED OFF LATEST HI-RES MODELS AND TRENDS WITH RADAR AND SAT

IMAGERY.

A VOLATILE SITUATION IS DEVELOPING WHICH LOOKS TO SUPPORT SEVERAL

SUPERCELL STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING AND DURING

THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS

OFF THE CHART AND AT LEVELS RARELY SEEN. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE

CURRENTLY 600-900 M2/S2 AND FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY HIGH AND WILL

LIKELY HOLD IN THE 300-600 M2/S2 RANGE IF NOT HIGHER. INSTABILITY

WILL BE QUITE HIGH AS WELL AND EXCEED 2500-3000 J/KG IF DEWPTS HOLD

AROUND 70. FORCING WILL BE INTENSE AND THERE WILL BE SOME CAPPING

MOVING IN FROM THE SW. THIS SHOULD KEEP CELLS DISCRETE AND

SUPERCELLULAR TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PUSHING 80 KTS AND COULD GET

HIGHER AS A 100KT MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHES INTO THE REGION IN A FEW

HRS.

EVOLVING SUPERCELLS IS THIS EXTREME ENVIRONMENT IS BAD NEWS. THERE

WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL STRONG TORNADOES WITH A VIOLENT TORNADO

POSSIBLE. CURRENT SIGTOR PARAMETERS (10-12) AND 0-1KM EHI VALUES (9-12)

ARE EXTREME ABOUT AS CLASSIC AND SIGNIFICANT OF A SETUP AS THEY COME.

STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NE IN THE FAST DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STORMS

SHOULD AVG 50-60 MPH. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO SUPPORT LONG LIVED

SUPERCELLS AND LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. I CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH HOW

DANGEROUS A SITUATION THIS APPEARS. OUR SAVING GRACE WOULD BE IF

STORM MODE SOME HOW BECOMES MORE LINEAR...BUT ALL HI-RES GUID

SUPPORTS DISCRETE CELLS. IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL

WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DMG WINDS OF 60-80 MPH.

Those parameters are insane. Sounds like a full fledged armageddon. A violent possible. It sounds more like multiple strong/violent EF3-EF4 tornadoes possible and I would not rule out an EF5 today.

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Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected.

if you say so

already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities

over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too

the outbreak continues

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if you say so

already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities

over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too

the outbreak continues

Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left.

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95/90 tor probs...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 232

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1105 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF

NATCHEZ MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. FOR

A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229...WW 230...WW 231...

DISCUSSION...A VERY VOLATILE SETUP IS DEVELOPING FOR PORTIONS OF MS

LATER TODAY AS A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RETURNS INTO AN

AREA WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST

AR/NORTHEAST LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL

START BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN MS WHERE DISCRETE

TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. ALL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT

STRONG/VIOLENT AND LONG-TRACK TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. VERY LARGE

HAIL AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A CONCERN.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.

...HART

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if you say so

already dozens of tornadoes last evening and overnight..mulitple fatalities

over 50 prelims now but many more will be added too

the outbreak continues

Indeed.

But this event will not cover the scope that 1974 did. We just aren't going to see lots of long-track, violent twisters from AL all the way up to MI like the Super Outbreak did. Everything points to this being a more southern-oriented event.

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Yeah, doesn't make sense to declare a bust at 12:15 PM EDT / 11:15 AM CDT. Lots of day left.

Well no one with any credibility forecast anything to 1974's level, so technically there can be no bust on something not forecast. :)

And I don't think he's declaring bust on the event, but just the comparison to 1974 by a couple of posters.

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Well no one with any credibility forecast anything to 1974's level, so technically there can be no bust on something not forecast. :)

And I don't think he's declaring bust on the event, but just the comparison to 1974 by a couple of posters.

Yeah...and if you look at that big MCS ongoing in TN/KY, that will probably limit the potential in a lot of areas for awhile. Didn't see that in 1974.

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Seeing how things have initiated this morning, it's clear today's outbreak will be a far cry from the Super Outbreak of 1974...as the vast majority of posters suspected.

Still looks like it should be the most significant outbreak in quite awhile, though, especially counting yesterday/last night's tornados.

Hopefully we dont get fatalities like then. But like I said even if we even a third or a quarter of the strong/violent EF3+ tornadoes like we did in the Superoutbreak of 1974 it could be quite catastrophic. 1974 had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. Imagine getting 8-12 EF3 tornadoes, 5-8 violent EF4 tornadoes, and 1-2 violent EF5 tornadoes today. IMO that could be a major disaster waiting to happen.

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Hopefully we dont get fatalities like then. But like I said even if we even a third or a quarter of the strong/violent EF3+ tornadoes like we did in the Superoutbreak of 1974 it could be quite catastrophic. 1974 had 35 F3's, 24 F4's, and 6 F5's. Imagine getting 8-12 EF3 tornadoes, 5-8 violent EF4 tornadoes, and 1-2 violent EF5 tornadoes today. IMO that could be a major disaster waiting to happen.

I doubt if those tornadoes were rated today they would be rated that high(at least some of them since they tend to be conservative these days) anyway we can save that debate for a slow winter day. Also no outbreak is the same. This one will cover from TX all the way into GA maybe and north into TN..with scattered reports likley in the OH valley and Northeast

for those of you who missed it go back and look at the radar at 2-3am over MS last night......wow

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