Snow_Miser Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Some computer models have been showing a -NAO, and this brings HM to say this statement: "If you want snow, it's coming. NAO going negative means watch out East coast and New England." http://www.facebook.com/#!/MeteoMadness?sk=wall&filter=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You know times are tough when we have to rely on Margusity for a snowstorm threat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 You know times are tough when we have to rely on Margusity for a snowstorm threat.... well they lost JB so Henry has to work double hype shifts. Winter is over, people need to realize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 You know times are tough when we have to rely on Margusity for a snowstorm threat.... Nahhh Margusity is the snow God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z ECM shows a huge +NAO in the medium-long range with a vortex centered over Baffin Island/Baffin Bay. It's pretty much the opposite pattern of the west-based blocking we saw in December. You never know with March cut-off lows, however. The teleconnections have much less importance this late in the season...some seemingly unfavorable patterns like March 1967 have produced big snows, a year which had a huge +NAO and Aleutian ridge/GoA low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 8, 2011 Author Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's a really long way out, so a lot of things can change. The GFS and GFS ENS both show a transition to a West based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I would take Joe Bastardi anyday over Henry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 It's a really long way out, so a lot of things can change. The GFS and GFS ENS both show a transition to a West based -NAO. That looks like a +NAO to me. Maybe it changes post Day 10, but that's fantasy range and the Pacific looks absolutely miserable. Not much hope with the big Aleutian ridge and GoA low. I wouldn't be surprised if no one in the Upton CWA sees a 6" snowfall again this winter. I think northern sections of the forecast region will probably get a couple 1-3" events with WAA snows before changing to rain like with the Thursday event up here in Westchester. I would take Joe Bastardi anyday over Henry. They both suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 That looks like a +NAO to me. Maybe it changes post Day 10, but that's fantasy range and the Pacific looks absolutely miserable. Not much hope with the big Aleutian ridge and GoA low. I wouldn't be surprised if no one in the Upton CWA sees a 6" snowfall again this winter. I think northern sections of the forecast region will probably get a couple 1-3" events with WAA snows before changing to rain like with the Thursday event up here in Westchester. They both suck. Henry sucks. Joe just goes overboard all the time, but he's generally pretty good, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Henry sucks. Joe just goes overboard all the time, but he's generally pretty good, imo. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 12z ECM shows a huge +NAO in the medium-long range with a vortex centered over Baffin Island/Baffin Bay. It's pretty much the opposite pattern of the west-based blocking we saw in December. You never know with March cut-off lows, however. The teleconnections have much less importance this late in the season...some seemingly unfavorable patterns like March 1967 have produced big snows, a year which had a huge +NAO and Aleutian ridge/GoA low... I would argue the opposite with regards to having a -NAO. Yes the wavelengths are getting shorter, but I was always under the impression that a -NAO is a necessity in March if we want snow down this way. If there is any hope, the MJO is emerging weakly into phase 8 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 I would argue the opposite with regards to having a -NAO. Yes the wavelengths are getting shorter, but I was always under the impression that a -NAO is a necessity in March if we want snow down this way. If there is any hope, the MJO is emerging weakly into phase 8 right now. The period March 18 through at least the 23rd has been hinting of a Neg Nao MJO going favorable territory and the pattern is active with storms - many times late march and early april snow storms are difficult to predict more then a couple days in advance and at this range the models only can give a general idea of what may be coming down the pike...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 GFS and GGEM both have a storm just south of us day 6.5-7.5 Plenty of cold air around as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 GFS and GGEM both have a storm just south of us day 6.5-7.5 Plenty of cold air around as well. JMA also now has this storm but more north and wetter. Euro also develops the storm but holds it back for a couple days before shredding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The storm is right before the big ridge moves in. All the models show a trough at Day 6/7 and then a SE ridge Day 9/10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 8, 2011 Share Posted March 8, 2011 The storm is right before the big ridge moves in. All the models show a trough at Day 6/7 and then a SE ridge Day 9/10... That ridge would be very welcomed, lets hope that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 The storm is right before the big ridge moves in. All the models show a trough at Day 6/7 and then a SE ridge Day 9/10... I saw a "daffodil crusher" being mentioned for the MA in the New England thread for next week. Does this imply we actually have a chance at snow next week? Somehow, I doubt it in this crappy pattern lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think that there is an 85% chance NYC snow season is over. Some of the models runs have suggested snow, however then runs then drop it. In addition the general pattern does not point to snow and time is running out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think that there is an 85% chance NYC snow season is over. Some of the models runs have suggested snow, however then runs then drop it. In addition the general pattern does not point to snow and time is running out fast. Im glad we got that last little snowstorm in before the pattern went completely awful. The funny thing is, areas south of us actually had their last snowfall later than we did this year (by a day, but it still counts.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Im glad we got that last little snowstorm in before the pattern went completely awful. The funny thing is, areas south of us actually had their last snowfall later than we did this year (by a day, but it still counts.) Honestly Alex you were very lucky to get that snow event, as the pattern went to crap at the end of January. I haven't seen an accumulating snow > 1" in CNJ since the Jan 26-27 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 I think that there is an 85% chance NYC snow season is over. Some of the models runs have suggested snow, however then runs then drop it. In addition the general pattern does not point to snow and time is running out fast. Yeah I agree next week is a thread the needle type deal. Been thinking for several weeks now that the snow season's just about over for NYC/coast. I still believe NYC will pull out one more accumulating snow though, if not next week, then within the March 20-April 10th time frame. I don't see us torching any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Honestly Alex you were very lucky to get that snow event, as the pattern went to crap at the end of January. I haven't seen an accumulating snow > 1" in CNJ since the Jan 26-27 storm. Oh, so you got screwed over on the Feb 22 storm-- I think the first one went just north of you and the second one was just south. Nate and his 400 feet of elevation got 8" in storm 1. It was a 3-4 inch deal down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Honestly Alex you were very lucky to get that snow event, as the pattern went to crap at the end of January. I haven't seen an accumulating snow > 1" in CNJ since the Jan 26-27 storm. And to think, we would have surpassed 1995-1996 had it went well with January 11-12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 And to think, we would have surpassed 1995-1996 had it went well with January 11-12th. Dont forget the season started or didnt with the near miss on Dec 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Honestly Alex you were very lucky to get that snow event, as the pattern went to crap at the end of January. I haven't seen an accumulating snow > 1" in CNJ since the Jan 26-27 storm. It's amazing we were getting double-digit snowfalls every other week and now have been struggling to cob together an inch. Horrific. Power of the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 It's amazing we were getting double-digit snowfalls every other week and now have been struggling to cob together an inch. Horrific. Power of the NAO. Is it the NAO or is it the Pacific that needs to be boiled away into oblivion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Is it the NAO or is it the Pacific that needs to be boiled away into oblivion We just have the hope the crappy GoA low retrogrades farther west so the +PNA pops at like Day 6/7...You can see it here even with the unfavorable Aleutian ridge: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Dont forget the season started or didnt with the near miss on Dec 19th. Eh, to be fair, Tony, that was a long shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 9, 2011 Share Posted March 9, 2011 Dont forget the season started or didnt with the near miss on Dec 19th. Had a little over 3" here on Dec. 19th and I had piled snow since then all the way until late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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