Stebo Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 This one is much different and I feel like I'm probably going overboard with my mod but this looks like one of those late summer strong cold fronts that yield for the East Coast. A second weaker risk area would be out over the plains states with a second impulse moving in. Target Area Richmond VA. I feel I am going to go down an flames on this one though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 We'll see how badly this one goes...not that close to Stebo's... The northeast threat looks like the typical threat there. High dew points make there way up, but clouds ongoing/storms at the start of the period. The cold front moves slowly so there is some room for some destabilization ahead of it. Shear looks decent over New England but rapidly becomes less impressive farther south. Certainly will yield some severe, and definitely slight risk worthy but I'm not going to pick a target in the northeast. There appears to be some sort of a SLP tretching from SE MT into NE CO. One issue is winds appear to veer over most of the warm sector not back, although there is some directional shear, especially near the SLP. The warm sector appeares to be fairly well capped, with a good amount of sunshine in most of the warm sector by 18z. There is modest low level speed shear, however a decent mid to upper level jet streak does appear to be making its way towards the upper Plains at 12z. I'd count on some isolated convention from the central Plains south along the cold front/dry line that appears to be in place. The environment is well capped, but some low level shear and strong instability could yield a highly isolated severe threat over the central/southern Plains, not worthy of a slight risk but of a "see text" area. Farther north, still decent instability. Winds tend to increase with height and gradually backing to the right with height, so think that with the incoming jet streak we will see the cap break over the far north during the evening. Might be some initial supercells possibly forming into some sort of an MCS by later at night. Think there could be half decent coverage of hail/wind reports and perhaps a few tornadoes, easily worthy of a slight risk. Debaited the moderate. Think with strong instability and decent shear that there might be just enough reports to justify a moderate. Neither setup looks particuarly exciting from a chase standpoint, but will pick Edgemont, SD as my target... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 13, 2011 Share Posted March 13, 2011 Have a feeling this is a "think outside the box" case, but after going over the maps for a bit, I'm stubbornly sticking with what seems like a semi-obvious target (from an ingredients perspective): GFK. Meh... the counties on the east coast are way too small for my liking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Target: Casselton, ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Well I was going to choose Casselton as well but I will go north instead. SO my target area will be: Grand Forks, ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Interesting case here. Red River Valley is nice and flat Anyways, some of the H7 temps on the western side of the Dakota's are nasty! Target: Fargo, ND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 14, 2011 Share Posted March 14, 2011 Tony, I won't be home until probably around 9 tonight, so can we extend the contest deadline until maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Not at all confident in this one, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 My point of origin is going to be PARK RAPIDS, MN, though to be honest.. I haven't the slightest clue.... I have a feeling you're playing a cruel trick on us, but that's just my first instinct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Half hour left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 I'm gonna go just south of the city but it's an in my backyard sort of chase, i'm gonna say thompson, nd but i'll be interested to see if the warm 700 temps keep a cap up and if the east coast get a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Target: Jamestown, ND. Just like case #3, I got tired of changing things so i'll go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 Contest is closed. Results shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 15, 2011 Author Share Posted March 15, 2011 This was a big day in a fairly small area. Some of you may remember the mile-wide tornado that hit Northwood, ND. Round 5 points: brettjrob: 32 cmichweather: 32 *IndyMeso*: 29 TheWeatherPimp: 16 Chicago Storm: 9 CandymanColumbusGA: 6 L.B. LaForce: 6 Thundersnow12: 6 OHweather: 2 Stebo48858: 1 Total through 5 rounds: brettjrob: 117 Thundersnow12: 97 Chicago Storm: 63 thewxmann: 53 L.B. LaForce: 43 cmichweather: 41 *IndyMeso*: 38 OHweather: 33 TheWeatherPimp: 23 Stebo48858: 17 Kevin Askew: 11 CandymanColumbusGA: 10 IsoDerecho: 6 Chinook: 1 I won't have another case posted until sometime tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Haha I had a feeling it was Northwood when I first saw the case. Then again I thought Hesston for the 5/8/65 case... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 15, 2011 Share Posted March 15, 2011 Man I knew I bit way to hard on the EC thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 hi lol Tony get this back up and running! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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