IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Still healthy amounts of QPF. The end result is a partially more consolidated low so that we don't end up getting bombarded with multiple pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM is .48" for NYC. Not even close to .75". This is on text soundings. GFS is about .75" but haven't seen text output yet. Regardless, That is a massive cut in rain from 12z, which had 2-2.50". look at the 60hr accumulated QPF amounts. Regardless, with a track like that were going to miss out on the heaviest stuff. I need to see more than one model suite to change the general concept of whats been advertised for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 look at the 60hr accumulated QPF amounts. Regardless, with a track like that were going to miss out on the heaviest stuff. I need to see more than one model suite to change the general concept of whats been advertised for days. I edited. NAM is .63" for NYC, based on text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I edited. NAM is .63" for NYC, based on text output. we all know NYC is not going to flood anyway, the small rivers in NE NJ are really the ones in question, again, let's wait to see not only how the rest of the 00z suite turns out but also the runs tommorrow before jumping to conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 New GGEM gives most of NJ 40-50mm, 45mm would be about 1.77" of rain through 48hrs. It agrees on tracking the low to our west but allows more moisture to ride up the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Qpf is handled poor by any model. Look at if there is a strong LLJ, RRQ/LFQ of the upper jet overhead, precipital water values, or anything that would lead you to have a good idea of the potential qpf. The models will jump on the track of the frontal waves so it's kind of impossible to hang your hat on any one solution. Synoptics is where we need to be looking. Where is the frontal wave going to go based on the u/a maps? That and the things i mentioned above, should give you a better idea of how much will fall, or at least the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Qpf is handled poor by any model. Look at if there is a strong LLJ, RRQ/LFQ of the upper jet overhead, precipital water values, or anything that would lead you to have a good idea of the potential qpf. The models will jump on the track of the frontal waves so it's kind of impossible to hang your hat on any one solution. Synoptics is where we need to be looking. Where is the frontal wave going to go based on the u/a maps? That and the things i mentioned above, should give you a better idea of how much will fall, or at least the potential. Thanks, still learning obviously. I seem to be getting trolled the last week or so by one or two people that pretty much don't have a care in the world for anything but snowstorms. Why they feel the need to come in a thread titled "heavy rain threat" and troll leaves me scratching my head. It's too bad something has not been done about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 On a side note, next weeks system continues to look very potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 On a side note, next weeks system continues to look very potent. why do you root for floods? nothing good at all comes from it unless you get off with others suffering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 why do you root for floods? nothing good at all comes from it unless you get off with others suffering This times ten. I agree. FLOODS also kill people more than any other event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 why do you root for floods? nothing good at all comes from it unless you get off with others suffering who said I was rooting for floods? I root for high impact weather no matter what form it takes because I enjoy experiencing severe weather. Certainly I would much rather have 30" of snow than 3" of rain but that's not going to happen with this event, and it never really had the chance too. There is more to weather than tracking thunderstorms and snowstorms. The fact of the matter is, the weather is going to do whatever the hell it pleases and no amount of will one way or another is going to affect the outcome. Of course I feel bad for those that are affected, but then again, it's not like I have any control over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Might I also remind you this is the "heavy rain threat" thread and I wasn't even the one that started it, so If you don't want to here me talk about heavy rain potential, don't come into this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The trend this evening has definately been dryer. 2-3" is looking like a long shot with a fast moving front that spawns a weak low riding it. Its just to fast and what is giving this thing moisture anyway? Those high amounts wont happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 I generally think you do focus a lot of time and energy on floods, even when we have a massive block and arctic air floating around, but I will give you this one... you made a good point =) The NWS agrees with you: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/ Might I also remind you this is the "heavy rain threat" thread and I wasn't even the one that started it, so If you don't want to here me talk about heavy rain potential, don't come into this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Its interesting, most models seem to agree on track but vary greatly with regards to moisture on the east side of the low. You have the NAM giving us very little and the GGEM pouring it on. Lots of spread still inside 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 who said I was rooting for floods? I root for high impact weather no matter what form it takes because I enjoy experiencing severe weather. Certainly I would much rather have 30" of snow than 3" of rain but that's not going to happen with this event, and it never really had the chance too. There is more to weather than tracking thunderstorms and snowstorms. The fact of the matter is, the weather is going to do whatever the hell it pleases and no amount of will one way or another is going to affect the outcome. Of course I feel bad for those that are affected, but then again, it's not like I have any control over it. because you mention it all the time. considering part of your town goes under water i dont understand why you seem to want it. Guess you dont like the village people section of pompton plains or the triangle hofbrau section(ok tiffs now) guess those less fortunate folks bring down the rest of your upper class town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 because you mention it all the time. considering part of your town goes under water i dont understand why you seem to want it. Guess you dont like the village people section of pompton plains or the triangle hofbrau section(ok tiffs now) guess those less fortunate folks bring down the rest of your upper class town. I don't root for floods, I sometimes talk about flood potential when there is alot of snow on the ground. I'm a firefighter and I spent 48hrs last March doing non-stop flood evacuations and rescues. I know what alot of snow can bring because of last year which is why my awarness is much higher than it use to be. As far as rooting for a heavy rain event for this week, who said anything about that. I'm just reporting the models as I see them, and yes, I don't like boring weather, love severe weather. I'm a weather nut, nothing makes me happier than a 40" snowstorm, but they cann't all be snow. Again, I have no control over the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The good news today if you live in a flood zone is that the NAM and GFS seem to have continued the trend today of being more progressive and lessening the QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It seems like once again the 12z NAM, and 12z GFS are keeping the heavier rains to the west of the area, the question is will they be correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 It looks like the best potential for heavier rains across NYC Metro and Long Island will come later Sunday into the evening when the chances of elevated convection will be the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Wow temps are busting by some 10 degrees already with more sunshine and strong southerly winds. Many locations in the mid 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Rain for the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 5, 2011 Author Share Posted March 5, 2011 NAM still has a nice area of convection just east of the surface low in the warm sector. 12z SPC WRF had a similar feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 North Jersey will see pretty good rain, just not widespread 3"+ like once modeled. How did he euro look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 North Jersey will see pretty good rain, just not widespread 3"+ like once modeled. How did he euro look today? Those big totals 3-5 days out almost never verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The big noreaster last March did but yeah I agree mostly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 GFS came in wetter for north Jersey. BTW river forecasts have been issued. Mostly minor flooding is forecasted at this time with a few rivers approaching moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Devil Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 The big noreaster last March did but yeah I agree mostly. What was the rain total for last March's storm? I seem to recall the flooding was disproportionate to the amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 5, 2011 Share Posted March 5, 2011 Roughly 4" or so. The problem was, there was still alot of snow left in northern areas. The OEM director told us the snowpack was holding about 9" of water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 6, 2011 Author Share Posted March 6, 2011 ...FLOODING POSSIBLE SUNDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS OR NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069-061015- /O.EXT.KOKX.FA.A.0003.110306T1500Z-110307T1100Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND- 341 PM EST SAT MAR 5 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...ESSEX...PASSAIC...UNION AND HUDSON. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ROCKLAND. * FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT * ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. * RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL ALLOW STREAMS TO OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS. * MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. * THE SADDLE...RAMAPO AND RAHWAY RIVERS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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