ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z does look better then 12z fwiw ECM looks pretty crappy...low is 996mb on the KS/MO border, tracks through Cleveland at 992mb, ends up at 991mb NW of PWM. Not great news for SNE. Second system (Day 7) tracks over the IN/IL border at 994mb, looks like another rain event. With such a +NAO and a -PNA, we may be entering a period of cutters. We just have to hope the blocking pattern comes back soon or we'll be dealing with a few slop events, basically game over for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 The best snow trajectory will probably miss SNE entirely, but we'll see...should be a nice storm for our NYC/NJ/PA friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 i say still near six inches for ct for monday storm. watch next weekend storm still think inland track more east track with nao- coming next week more winter left coming in march like jb said . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3 to 5 is looking good here maybe 6 if this keeps up The best snow trajectory will probably miss SNE entirely, but we'll see...should be a nice storm for our NYC/NJ/PA friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 3 to 5 is looking good here maybe 6 if this keeps up That band looks great right now. Should be snowing here shortly. Someone might get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 0z does look better then 12z fwiw It looks as if all of SNE goes above 0C at 850mb, no? Wouldn't a low tracking through Cleveland and then NY State mean rain for most of the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It looks as if all of SNE goes above 0C at 850mb, no? Wouldn't a low tracking through Cleveland and then NY State mean rain for most of the region? Its still a bad solution for all of us. Though I think he meant a little less amped up. Doesn't matter this run, but if it trended slowly S we might have something. I'm not too optimistic on it, though I've been keeping my eye on it for an ice situation in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 still atleast an inch an hour snows here.. Radar looks great That band looks great right now. Should be snowing here shortly. Someone might get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Its still a bad solution for all of us. Though I think he meant a little less amped up. Doesn't matter this run, but if it trended slowly S we might have something. I'm not too optimistic on it, though I've been keeping my eye on it for an ice situation in the interior. Doesn't it seem weird that the 0z ECM also tracks the next system through Illinois? Don't we usually get a sharper high pressure following such a big cutter that forces the ensuing storm system a bit farther south? I was originally optimistic with the Day 7-8 system, since the 0z GFS had a weak clipper coming through and bringing down -12C 850s to NYC, but now the Euro wants to wash out the cold front, eliminate the clipper, and go with another massive rainstorm at 168 hours. It then does another cutter at 240 hours, would just be a brutal sequence of warmth and rain although not entirely unexpected with the +NAO/-PNA pattern that seems to be holding most of the cold air out west and over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 That band looks great right now. Should be snowing here shortly. Someone might get lucky. Just got home and I'm drunk, but some March 2001 magic in latter Feb seems in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-5" lollipops somewhere between Springfield and Albany because of this persistant band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised to see some 4-5" lollipops somewhere between Springfield and Albany because of this persistant band. I wouldn't be suprised to see 4-5" lollipops over my head, since I've whined so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 First weenie flakes like 6 mile vis type weenie flakes but it should ramp up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 First weenie flakes like 6 mile vis type weenie flakes but it should ramp up quickly Gotta crash becuase I'm drunk and the expectation\tired ratio is not favorable....kills me to do this, but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Gotta crash becuase I'm drunk and the expectation\tired ratio is not favorable....kills me to do this, but.... Probably a good idea...though its probably snowing there now It looks good for a few hours at least for central/western MA and down into SE MA perhaps and of course CT/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Picking up here now. Dendrites are perfect....very large and ideal for fast accumulation if these bands can hold up long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Picking up here now. Dendrites are perfect....very large and ideal for fast accumulation if these bands can hold up long enough. Lol, you're doing better than me and I was supposedly in a more favorable spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Lol, you're doing better than me and I was supposedly in a more favorable spot for this one. It should get better there later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It should get better there later on. I should note I'm not in Danbury right now..but yeah either way, echoes look promising to the west, hopefully they don't vaporize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 It's snowing here, but not enough for me to care if I was on my way out.....night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 PS: Feb blows fat, hairy, sweaty donkey balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Great band over Pete's hood right now....hoping all of that trains into my BY. These are the bands we said that should be watched on the northern periphery of the precip shield. Its going to pile up very quickly in those bands given the current snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm a little confused. That looks like a lot of moisture. Can someone explain why that's not going to crash into Southern New England? Great band over Pete's hood right now....hoping all of that trains into my BY. These are the bands we said that should be watched on the northern periphery of the precip shield. Its going to pile up very quickly in those bands given the current snow growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm a little confused. That looks like a lot of moisture. Can someone explain why that's not going to crash into Southern New England? Look at the direction its moving...ESE....so a lot of that will miss us to the south....the stuff in PA and extreme S NY....but we'll get a piece of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 I'm moving ese into my bedroom...fu** this.....c-ya in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 This is probably the peak of my storm right here....absolutely tearing huge dendrites. Doesn't get any better than this for snow growth...its too bad we couldn't have a slightly more amplified system otherwise someone probably would have seen 8"+ out of this with like 0.35" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol. Absolutely ripping huge flakes right now. 25F. Too bad this couldn't stick around, looks like a real storm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 lol. Absolutely ripping huge flakes right now. 25F. Too bad this couldn't stick around, looks like a real storm out there. Yeah this is a brief glimpse of what we could have had for like 4-6 hours if the storm had been slightly more amped. Too bad this one of the exceptions where the confluence had to win out in a SWFE. What a scene though for now that will end soon. Hopefully we can get another band in here before its done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Yeah this is a brief glimpse of what we could have had for like 4-6 hours if the storm had been slightly more amped. Too bad this one of the exceptions where the confluence had to win out in a SWFE. What a scene though for now that will end soon. Hopefully we can get another band in here before its done. Looks like we have the heaviest snow in SNE right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2011 Share Posted February 21, 2011 Looks like we have the heaviest snow in SNE right now. As said earlier, someone could have picked up 8"+ in 4-6 hours if it had been slightly more amplified. You can see how it looks right now. Its probably not even moderate snow...or if it is...barely. But it looks like heavy snow because the dendrites are damn near perfect...it acts like heavy snow for accumulation. Probably 1+ inch per hour with 3/4 to 1 mi vis. Sucks that it will end in a few minutes. Then back to hoping for another band to get going. You can see the radar getting chewed up as it heads east. This wasn't far from a very good event, but you can't win them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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