dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Gonna be an interesting ride between now & Monday whatever plays out. HPC through 7am Sunday. Nice 70% prob of 4" for borderwx, serbiesnow, klw, heavysnow79, myself and almost to tamarack. yeah, I checked out HPC today, That has come east from yesterday, I wish this junk GFS would verify, The 12z run is another snow bomb for most except the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Gonna be an interesting ride between now & Monday whatever plays out. HPC through 7am Sunday. Nice 70% prob of 4" for borderwx, serbiesnow, klw, heavysnow79, myself and almost to tamarack. Looks like that just gets me as well. Would like to see us lose minimal snowpack. I want a couple more weeks of snowmobiling before I start thinking about golf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like that just gets me as well. Would like to see us lose minimal snowpack. I want a couple more weeks of snowmobiling before I start thinking about golf. Sorry dude--just edited my post to get you in on the action too. I hear ya. Lovin' winter but starting to think about riding the ol' motorcycle. Hold the pickle, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Sorry dude--just edited my post to get you in on the action too. I hear ya. Lovin' winter but starting to think about riding the ol' motorcycle. I really don't want to see another storm like the one that ended last winter. I forget the exact date but it was similar in that there were two parts, we got a dumping and then it changed to rain and was supposed to change back to snow but never did. I remember sitting there looking at the radar depictions, it looked like the rain/snow line just sat in the same place all day without ever advancing east/north. I think Logan 11 got like 40" and the southern Greens got crushed as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 I just went back and looked at last night 0z Euro run, And it is very simnilar to the 12z GFS when you compare hr 84 on the GFS with hr 96 on the Euro, Both have the low tracking over Cape Cod, Lets see what happens at 12z with the Euro, But we are starting to see a colder trend it seems for Monday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Gonna be an interesting ride between now & Monday whatever plays out. HPC through 7am Sunday. Nice 70% prob of 4" for borderwx, serbiesnow, mreaves, klw, heavysnow79, myself and almost to tamarack. Not quite close enough. The 10% and 40% lines are kissing IMBY. (How dare they! Get off my lawn!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I really don't want to see another storm like the one that ended last winter. I forget the exact date but it was similar in that there were two parts, we got a dumping and then it changed to rain and was supposed to change back to snow but never did. I remember sitting there looking at the radar depictions, it looked like the rain/snow line just sat in the same place all day without ever advancing east/north. I think Logan 11 got like 40" and the southern Greens got crushed as well. That one came up here just the other day. Here're my numbers for the last week of February 2010, all 24 hour obs ending at 7am on the date noted: 2/24 12" of snow, 0.88" LE. 2/25 5.5" of snow, 0.67" LE 2/26 trace of snow, 0.63" rain. 2/27 4" of snow, 0.32" LE 2/28 1" of snow, 0.08" LE Yeesh, what a stretch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 That one came up here just the other day. Here're my numbers for the last week of February 2010, all 24 hour obs ending at 7am on the date noted: 2/24 12" of snow, 0.88" LE. 2/25 5.5" of snow, 0.67" LE 2/26 trace of snow, 0.63" rain. 2/27 4" of snow, 0.32" LE 2/28 1" of snow, 0.08" LE Yeesh, what a stretch! Surprising how close we were on this one, after the 24th, and allowing time for things to work west to east. 2/24 0.5" of snow, 0.02" LE. 2/25 3.6" of snow, 1.36" LE 2/26 3.0" of snow, 1.63" LE. 2/27 2.7" of snow, 0.53" LE 2/28 0.9" of snow, 0.26" LE For grins, Farmington in 1969 (temps upper 20s to upper teens) 2/24 traces of snow and LE. Depth 41" 2/25 15.0" of snow, 1.50" LE. Depth 56" 2/26 17.0" of snow, 1.70" LE. Depth 73" 2/27 8.0" of snow, 0.86" LE. Depth 81" 2/28 3.0" of snow, 0.27" LE. Depth 84" The exact 10:1 ratios on 25,26 are odd, as is the precise tracking of depth change to snowfall. For the second, the decrease in depth (to 76" in a week with 2" new, to 66" in 2 weeks with another 4" new) seems logical given the near normal temps during that period. Maybe the depths are good and the snowfall under-measured? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 12Z Euro has shifted mondays storm east, Low tracks over the outer cape into the GOM, White mtns get hammered on this run with a change to snow to the coast on the backside of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Is it too far east for the Greens? I like that 12z gfs clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Is it too far east for the Greens? I like that 12z gfs clown map. No not at all, It only shifted about 30-50 miles east, They do well also, That 06 gfs clown map may not be that far off if the trend continues......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 w No not at all, It only shifted about 30-50 miles east, They do well also, That 06 gfs clown map may not be that far off if the trend continues......lol Well 06 gfs has me about 20 miles too far west. So it is clearly to be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 w Well 06 gfs has me about 20 miles too far west. So it is clearly to be tossed. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Looks like I will be coming back to a further buried campus... i leave today for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 and allowing time for things to work west to east. 3-6 hours upstream/downtream, perhaps? Of course it depends on the system--slow movers, quick hitters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Although there is lots of talk about heavy rain changing to heavy wet snow, there is also a non-zero prob of ice on the cold side of the sfc boundary before the deeper layer thicknesses crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Although there is lots of talk about heavy rain changing to heavy wet snow, there is also a non-zero prob of ice on the cold side of the sfc boundary before the deeper layer thicknesses crash. Would be quite a pasting in the western maine mtns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Would be quite a pasting in the western maine mtns... Yeah, places like Jackman could get 1-2" of rain then over a foot of heavy wet snow...perhaps with some ice in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Although there is lots of talk about heavy rain changing to heavy wet snow, there is also a non-zero prob of ice on the cold side of the sfc boundary before the deeper layer thicknesses crash. There's been quite a few runs that show 3-9 hours of icing for someone along the snow/rain boundary. Seems like the low levels race a good deal ahead of the upper levels at least on the GFS. Has the Euro had the same sort of thermal profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 There's been quite a few runs that show 3-9 hours of icing for someone along the snow/rain boundary. Seems like the low levels race a good deal ahead of the upper levels at least on the GFS. Has the Euro had the same sort of thermal profiles? The EC is similar...but is more amplified and thus warmer...especially on the coastal plain for much of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 Yeah, places like Jackman could get 1-2" of rain then over a foot of heavy wet snow...perhaps with some ice in between. That was the exact area i had in mind as i snowmobile up there, The border towns look like they would fair quite well in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 I'll be a little bummed if I barely miss a major RA to SN storm unless it pans out as a major icing event. Hopefully the EC starts trending SE soon like the 2/25 event. Mike is right though that someone has the potential to get ripped with a lot of IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 Mike is right though that someone has the potential to get ripped with a lot of IP/ZR. Wouldn't be surprised to see that around here while it's puking snow in the 'Daks and Champlain Valley and pouring rain on the coast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2011 Share Posted March 4, 2011 New thread time. Someone else do the honors. 18z GFS trended warmer. Instead of a wet thumping of snow I go from RA to a PL/FZRA fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2011 Author Share Posted March 4, 2011 New thread time. Someone else do the honors. 18z GFS trended warmer. Instead of a wet thumping of snow I go from RA to a PL/FZRA fest. We can toss this one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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