Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think we have a cooler than normal summer, and a below normal hurricane season with an emphasis on east coast landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Cold rainy June/July, first frost in early August. First snow of the '11-'12 Winter by Labor day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 11, 2011 Author Share Posted February 11, 2011 Cold rainy June/July, first frost in early August. First snow of the '11-'12 Winter by Labor day. Not very conducive to golf Pete, change your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think we have a cooler than normal summer, and a below normal hurricane season with an emphasis on east coast landfalls. I think more hurricanes than last summer, but another scorcher. Maybe not as hot, but I think we'll have a run of hot summers, as we did from 1952-55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 A somewhat cool April. Sizzling May. On the whole, slightly above normal temps for JJA. Weekly tornado watch outbreaks over New England June-July. Active start to hurricane season, winding down early. 14/8/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 15/8/4 Persistent NAO over the winter (so far) still is allowing for a significant Atlantic tripole which is associated with above normal hurricane seasons. ENSO models, although with limited skill show a nuetral/weak La Nina state into the summer and fall. Both states are associated with above normal hurricane activity. Climatologically, stronger La Nina episodes tend to persist for more than one season. SSTs should remain above normal due to the positive AMO state but not nearly as significantly so as last year. I do not expect the persistently strong NAO state to continue into the Spring which tends to reinforce with Atlantic tripole and the AMO values and total activity. More bouts of positive NAO regimes should allow for a much higher risk to the east coast this season. The forecast is tempered due to the lack of skill in predicting the ENSO state for late summer/fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I was hoping you'd chime in Nick. I'm not as well versed in tropical meteorology like you are, but was thinking maybe 15-17 storms or so. I wonder if these bouts of + NAO regimes will damage the tripole that we have going. It would obviously have to be a serious prolonged +NAO, but I suppose it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I was hoping you'd chime in Nick. I'm not as well versed in tropical meteorology like you are, but was thinking maybe 15-17 storms or so. I wonder if these bouts of + NAO regimes will damage the tripole that we have going. It would obviously have to be a serious prolonged +NAO, but I suppose it is possible. It could...but we've had significant bouts of +NAO since 1995 and still managed to average about 14 storms a year with higher than average tropical SSTs. Last year we saw record warmth in the tropics due to th combination of the record blocking and the El Nino which basically lead to no subtropical high in the late winter and spring. This won't be the case this year but I still believe SSTs will be warmer than normal due to the overriding multiddecadal cycle. The biggest factor will likely be the fall ENSO configuration. That's tough to predict but at least preliminary signs are nuetral/La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I think more hurricanes than last summer, but another scorcher. Maybe not as hot, but I think we'll have a run of hot summers, as we did from 1952-55. We had 12 hurricanes last year...5 majors and 19 storms...much above average. More than 12 is tough to accomplish even in favorable years. Unless you have a landfall fetish...last season was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm really looking forward to it... Rainstorm trolling Floydbuster You Tube forecasts Ray complaining about ACE Ray complaining about the heat Ray complaining about lack of severe in Wilmington 12 paragraph Wiz posts about potential for elevated pea-sized hailers MRG talking about the leaves dropping in July Birving posting a 120hr UKMET map followed by this: Sam keeping track of the 90F degrees in Concord yep...sounds great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm really looking forward to it... Rainstorm trolling Floydbuster You Tube forecasts Ray complaining about ACE Ray complaining about the heat Ray complaining about lack of severe in Wilmington 12 paragraph Wiz posts about potential for elevated pea-sized hailers MRG talking about the leaves dropping in July Birving posting a 120hr UKMET map followed by this: Sam keeping track of the 90F degrees in Concord yep...sounds great. Am19psu is a mod now...so we might not have to deal with Rainstorm trolling anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm really looking forward to it... Rainstorm trolling Floydbuster You Tube forecasts Ray complaining about ACE Ray complaining about the heat Ray complaining about lack of severe in Wilmington 12 paragraph Wiz posts about potential for elevated pea-sized hailers MRG talking about the leaves dropping in July Birving posting a 120hr UKMET map followed by this: Sam keeping track of the 90F degrees in Concord yep...sounds great. LOL, well if we have any semblance of a -NAO..we may be back to more cold pool type events, with every storm skipping Wilmington and Wiz having a heart attack over pea size hail. Kevin somehow will have 40-50 branches down on his yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 i'm really looking forward to it... Rainstorm trolling Floydbuster You Tube forecasts Ray complaining about ACE Ray complaining about the heat Ray complaining about lack of severe in Wilmington 12 paragraph Wiz posts about potential for elevated pea-sized hailers MRG talking about the leaves dropping in July Birving posting a 120hr UKMET map followed by this: Sam keeping track of the 90F degrees in Concord yep...sounds great. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm thinking a summer not unlike the summer of 1816...I think my snowbanks might last the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 I'm thinking a summer not unlike the summer of 1816...I think my snowbanks might last the summer If they last next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Some forecast from the ECMWF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Drizzle + cold. Summer high of 83F on May 3rd. Oh, also, cat 2 landfall on BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Hot dry summer. Nina picks up again as we approach autumn. Potential disastrous warm and dry winter looming next year so I hope this March Pattern produces. So again, hot, much less rain vs last year. Strong tropical season but like most years, unlikely to see a SNE landfall of anything of significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 7, 2011 Author Share Posted March 7, 2011 Hot dry summer. Nina picks up again as we approach autumn. Potential disastrous warm and dry winter looming next year so I hope this March Pattern produces. So again, hot, much less rain vs last year. Strong tropical season but like most years, unlikely to see a SNE landfall of anything of significance. Sounds like a great summer! not liking your thoughts for next winter:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I suspect a decent hurricane season but not a quick starter unless we actually start to develop a El nino type pattern by early summer months... As for landfalls, really toss of a coin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 7, 2011 Share Posted March 7, 2011 I suspect a decent hurricane season but not a quick starter unless we actually start to develop a El nino type pattern by early summer months... As for landfalls, really toss of a coin! I think most would gladly sacrifice a weak subtropical/tropical storm or two due to cut-off lows from an El Nino pattern in May or June for a more robust La Nina season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 bump EuroSIP is looking decidedly warm-neutral bordering weak Nino for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18521-the-high-dewpoint-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 http://www.americanw...ewpoint-thread/ an obs high dewpoint thread is not a summer/tropical forecast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 an obs high dewpoint thread is not a summer/tropical forecast thread. If you read my first post it certainly is young grasshopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 9/5/3...majors into miami and virginia beach. weak nino quickly transitions back to nina by winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 If you read my first post it certainly is young grasshopper we had a separate tropical thread last year...I'd rather keep the same theme. I see your general ideas for summer in your thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I didn't do a hurricane forecast...I know nothing about tropical stuff but perhaps I'll work on learning more about this over the next few months. So far my May temp forecast looks pretty horrible...as usual. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/17934-2011-summer-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 we had a separate tropical thread last year...I'd rather keep the same theme. I see your general ideas for summer in your thread. I saw those plumes earlier. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.