ouamber Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 When do the new models come out? This storm is being difficult to predict!!! I am hoping for a 10'' snow here in Tulsa:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 When do the new models come out? This storm is being difficult to predict!!! I am hoping for a 10'' snow here in Tulsa:) They already came out for this evening. Euro is running now. NAM/GFS will run again at 1:45/3:30. If the Euro doesn't come north, I'm thinking the NAM is just wrong like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Thanks! Post it on here and let us see those models as they come out? Do you stay up all night for this? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 What's strange about the NAM is that it was out to lunch with some of the things it showed leading up to the blizzard last week. However, it did a pretty good job with predicting where the heaviest swath of snow would set up, at least in OK. I'm not sure how it performed in that respect in other places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 What's strange about the NAM is that it was out to lunch with some of the things it showed leading up to the blizzard last week. However, it did a pretty good job with predicting where the heaviest swath of snow would set up, at least in OK. I'm not sure how it performed in that respect in other places. It did terrible. 12 hours before the event it had an extreme amount of precip in a N/S band across S KS thru Central OK that didn't verify at all. This was a huge shift west, while the GFS held firm and was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Euro looks south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 do you have a picture of what the euro looks like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It did terrible. 12 hours before the event it had an extreme amount of precip in a N/S band across S KS thru Central OK that didn't verify at all. This was a huge shift west, while the GFS held firm and was correct. My mistake. For some reason I remember looking at NAM snowfall maps that had the heaviest band in OK from just east of OKC to TUL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 do you have a picture of what the euro looks like? Just basing off these maps compared to the GFS from NCEP http://greatlakes.salsite.com/big_ECMWF_plymouth_page.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Looks like Tulsa just put out a Winter Storm Watch for their entire area for 4-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Yeah, just pushed my model run as of 07Z, latest Tulsa estimates is 6-9 inch totals, looks like not as windy as the last system that came through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so whose getting the 9'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 snowing lightly in jenks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wierdo Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so whose getting the 9'? SW of Tulsa, down towards OKC, supposedly. I'm not sure I'd put too much stock in the present thinking, though. The NAM is still sticking to its story and the GFS its. I don't really believe either. Hopefully I'll get a chance to check out some other models when I get back home in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL NAM is on crack still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 LOL NAM is on crack still. The Old ETA disagrees with the NAM....this event will not be well forecast by any of the models because its primarily an overrunning event and there is definitely a Gulf moisture influx...I'd expect we will see some amounts near 18 inches in parts of OK. http://www.meteo.psu...2z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It is looking more and more likely that SW MO gets left in a "donut hole" unless there is a change in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The RGEM also favoring areas south of I-40...generally when the RGEM and NAM disagree the NAM is usually wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
springfieldnewsnut Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 It is looking more and more likely that SW MO gets left in a "donut hole" unless there is a change in the models. I already told my kids we'd be in school all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 I don't know... the 12z GFS has some snowfall for everyone involved it appears. This will be a difficult one to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 TSA is decreasing snow more and more sucks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Not too bad...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 tulsa is saying 3-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well, enjoy what snow you do get as it looks to warm up in the extended. We still may get another snow in late Feb or March though, but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Well, enjoy what snow you do get as it looks to warm up in the extended. We still may get another snow in late Feb or March though, but you never know. well it would be nice to know exactly. except for my poor car i am ready im getting my daughter early so im set for a big one and now its decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The snow estimate from the TWS is on crack! Wichita is not getting 6-10, even there NWS from Wichita isn't even saying that. Besides those totals are from 9:14am today-Wednesday at 9:14...Eastern OK and NW AR will still be in snow by then...not that worried. But why do they have the system so north? And do we even know where this is going to track. For NE OK to get a big snow..10''+, we need it to track parallel to Dallas and swing up the Arklatex area and across middle and southern Arkansas. I'm just not sure it's going to do that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The snow estimate from the TWS is on crack! Wichita is not getting 6-10, even there NWS from Wichita isn't even saying that. Besides those totals are from 9:14am today-Wednesday at 9:14...Eastern OK and NW AR will still be in snow by then...not that worried. But why do they have the system so north? And do we even know where this is going to track. For NE OK to get a big snow..10''+, we need it to track parallel to Dallas and swing up the Arklatex area and across middle and southern Arkansas. I'm just not sure it's going to do that.... so tell us how you really feel...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12Z GGEM looks somewhat better for eastern ok then the 00Z did. so tell us how you really feel...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 7, 2011 Author Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z NAM Kuchera: 12z GFS Kuchera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 so which is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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