JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Through 33, NAM isn't looking that much different from it's 18z run. A little stronger with 700 MB winds over OK. Looks like a shift south though. Less QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 so possibly more for jenks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 NAM still sticking to its general idea for sure, I guess it isnt finished with that crack pipe. On to the GFS. Which I bet will stick pretty close to its story also. Through 33, NAM isn't looking that much different from it's 18z run. A little stronger with 700 MB winds over OK. Looks like a shift south though. Less QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Wheres semiweather and snowgoose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 According to the NAM thermal profiles, there's going to be some pretty impressive ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 According to the NAM thermal profiles, there's going to be some pretty impressive ratios. that sounds promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z NAM Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 00z nam still spitting out 8-9" here lol....like spot said it needs to put the crack pipe down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 Impressive upright instability! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 937 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT. THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Impressive upright instability! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 937 PM CST MON FEB 7 2011 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SUPPORT MODEL SOLUTIONS OF AN INTENSE WAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. 00Z NAM REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS IN BOTH SNOW AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. OF NOTE HOWEVER IS NOT SO MUCH THE MODEL SNOW AMOUNTS BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD REGION OF UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THIS ZONE ARE IMPRESSIVE AND SHOULD THIS SOLUTION VERIFY...THEN ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE LIKELY WITH LOCAL SNOW AMOUNTS WELL IN EXCESS OF ACTUAL MODEL OUTPUT. THESE TYPE OF DETAILS WILL FLUCTUATE IN PLACEMENT AND LIKELY NOT BE TOTALLY DEFINED UNTIL EVENT STARTS. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT LOCALLY INTENSE SNOW BANDS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EVENING UPDATE WILL NOT ALTER SNOWFALL FORECASTS AS MUCH MORE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. love it!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 i see you all down there get up here!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Just pushed out 02Z SmartModel output, looking at the Tulsa, OK area, right now going for 10" of snow for that area. Looking at the heaviest period from 09Feb at 12Z to 20Z, with over average of 1" accumulations per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 NAM still sticking to its general idea for sure, I guess it isnt finished with that crack pipe. On to the GFS. Which I bet will stick pretty close to its story also. Yep, looks like the GFS is sticking to its previous runs as well. Little drier up here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol. But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol. But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha It does look impressive down there where you are no matter what model verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 I'm here lol...it's just that there's not too much to talk about w/ this one. I know it won't be as impressive for NE OK, but for here I'm essentially expecting the same impact, 8 days later. Doubt I'm pulling an all nighter for this one, lol. But I'll probably post more starting tomorrow after my classes are done (for the week? ) ...not like I'm gonna have much else to do hahaha boomer theres always something to say.....btw the guy that does the radio show for the sooners gary o mealley hes my cousin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 It does look impressive down there where you are no matter what model verifies. Yep. Over 10" is believable if we get some good banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 700 MB winds from the NAM and GFS at the exact same time. Notice the difference over OK? NAM GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 boomer theres always something to say.....btw the guy that does the radio show for the sooners gary o mealley hes my cousin. Nice...if the game vs. Texas isn't postponed I'm gonna try to get on TV on Wed. Night with this sign: Boren's Wish List: 1) Snowplows 2) Salt 3) Beat Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Nice...if the game vs. Texas isn't postponed I'm gonna try to get on TV on Wed. Night with this sign: Boren's Wish List: 1) Snowplows 2) Salt 3) Beat Texas! LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!! you are totally cool!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 700 MB winds from the NAM and GFS at the exact same time. Notice the difference over OK? NAM GFS: ok what does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 ok what does this mean? That means one of them is wrong. The NAM has stronger 700 MB winds which would create more lift and precip while the GFS is weaker and would produce less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 That means one of them is wrong. The NAM has stronger 700 MB winds which would create more lift and precip while the GFS is weaker and would produce less. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If the GFS keeps this up we may be partly sunny up here by Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electronicmaji Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Come on I was promised another half week off guys. Just need Wednesday and Thursday closings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The latest TSA discussion is actually the kind that makes me re-read it and look at every word. Sounds like they see things that are causing them to lean more in the NAM camp, particularly as they alluded to the system "potent" and noted the lightning strikes. AS I recall the higher resolution of the NAM makes its reliability a quite a bit better than those H72 Hail Marys it has thrown out there. I am not sure why they would continue to use a model, if it could be empirically demonstrated it is "garbage." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 And the 00z GFS Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 8, 2011 Author Share Posted February 8, 2011 The latest TSA discussion is actually the kind that makes me re-read it and look at every word. Sounds like they see things that are causing them to lean more in the NAM camp, particularly as they alluded to the system "potent" and noted the lightning strikes. AS I recall the higher resolution of the NAM makes its reliability a quite a bit better than those H72 Hail Marys it has thrown out there. I am not sure why they would continue to use a model, if it could be empirically demonstrated it is "garbage." It's possible it's right, but based on previous experience with the NAM, it's very hit and miss. Maybe the possible convective instability it is show is effecting it's forecast via convective feedback? However, it is sticking to it's solution and the GFS is sticking to it's solution. The RGEM has a lot of precip over OK into W Ark. The GGEM is looking a lot like the GFS. Euro starts in 30 mins or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valerie Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 And the 00z GFS Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 2-Day Forecast Snowfall Totals Cities such as Denver, Colorado Springs, Santa Fe, Albuquerque, North Platte, Garden City, Wichita, Amarillo, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Topeka and Kansas City will all see a decent snowfall out of this storm system. It's not out of the question that cities such as Oklahoma City and Tulsa may receive even more snow than the current forecast. A foot or more of snow is not out of the question for both of those cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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