Stash Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Growing up in CT (even the hills of Western CT) we always seemed to be the transition zone. More often than not at least some part of the storm would end as sleet, frz drizzle, etc...of course, those were back in the days when Upstate NY was actually the jackpot for heavy snows, haha. When I first moved up here (then, at SUNY Albany) it was weird getting used to "most" winter storms just being pure snow. IMO snow is "easier" to come by. A "snowstorm" is a different story to get a widespread heavy snow requires a # of factors... Ice storm require many more. Ice is usually a transition from one p-type to another..snow to rain or the opposite way. One needs the "right" ingredients and parameters coming together in time and place to cause an all-out icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 KALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Heard theirs going to be some lake effect potential tomorrow and tomorrow night. Probably nothing here though. The tug gets it I'm assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 i really dont know where Env canada is getting their forecasts for the Montreal areas since yesterday. even the GEM hasnt been showing what they have been forecasting in terms of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Hopefully we squeeze out a few inches with tonight's system. The snow is almost going over the deck! Will take a few pics later, it's awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Gfs still wetter then the NAM, 1/4-1/2" for most of the region.. 09z SREF is about .25 to .50 most of us. 12z NAM came in a bit more than double the 06z run (.52). Nudging totals up a couple of inches. Still looks like it tapers off around middday tomorrow (noon). However may also be dealing with upslope snow showers on strong west winds higher terrain east after the storm, (Snow showers, too to the west) along with what could be a pretty prolonged LES event for the TUG tomorrow evening lasting well into Wednesday night. You know who is probably getting all ramped up and excited about this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The only thing that made me nervous at 12Z is the shaft zone south/east of the where the main snow streak sets up had edged northwest. Now the best snows are ALB to points n/w. Fine...as long as we don't shift them another 30-40 miles. After Saturday's debacle it makes me nervous. Hey I don't have huge expectations, but would rather not see my 4 inches turn to 1 inch. 09z SREF is about .25 to .50 most of us. 12z NAM came in a bit more than double the 06z run (.52). Nudging totals up a couple of inches. Still looks like it tapers off around middday tomorrow (noon). However may also be dealing with upslope snow showers on strong west winds higher terrain east after the storm, (Snow showers, too to the west) along with what could be a pretty prolonged LES event for the TUG tomorrow evening lasting well into Wednesday night. You know who is probably getting all ramped up and excited about this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the cold air is slowly sinking SE and the leading edge is now as close as the upper ottawa valley. lots of compaction of our high fluff low LE snow (fringed by events and northern streamers).. we desperately need to change arimasses to some fresh cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 12z ECM looks about the same, generally .25-.3 for most everyone, accept immediate WNY and along the immediate WNE border from Washington Co. south. Looks like ~.2 in those areas. Per the ECM... the 1A-7A period continues to be the most active period with everyone east of a Steuben-Ontario-Wayne Co. line experiencing .1-.25. Yeah, it's not much, but the fact it coincides with the most favorable time of day for accumulating snowfall, I think most everyone is in store for 2-4" snowfall out of this system, with perhaps slightly higher amounts in the ~E of I-81 / N of I-90 region, especially the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 once again, the models are busting wrt to the heavy snow in western kentucky......its a potent little system there, will have to keep an eye on this for some surprises as it moves into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 The only thing that made me nervous at 12Z is the shaft zone south/east of the where the main snow streak sets up had edged northwest. Now the best snows are ALB to points n/w. Fine...as long as we don't shift them another 30-40 miles. After Saturday's debacle it makes me nervous. Hey I don't have huge expectations, but would rather not see my 4 inches turn to 1 inch. Once again I am not too comfortable with what I have out...I could see less or even a bit more. The SREF have been pretty consistent past few runs so I have some confidence in the and the PENN #s are around .3-.4 as well from off of both the GFS and NAM. Also thinking that there MAY be some squalls tomorrow with the arctic cold fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 once again, the models are busting wrt to the heavy snow in western kentucky......its a potent little system there, will have to keep an eye on this for some surprises as it moves into our area. it'll probably blitz Montreal and just miss Ottawa. You guys seem to be partially salvaging your winter, unlike Ottawa. Reminds me of January/February 2007. You guys got hit by a couple of footers while we got screwed. This is such a stale air mass we're in. 20F in Pembroke, 32F in Ottawa. I'm guessing the cold air is on its way. Kind of an odd forecast tomorrow. The daytime high is forecast to only be a degree or so above tonight's overnight low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 the cold air is slowly sinking SE and the leading edge is now as close as the upper ottawa valley. lots of compaction of our high fluff low LE snow (fringed by events and northern streamers).. we desperately need to change arimasses to some fresh cold. looks like that's moving in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 it'll probably blitz Montreal and just miss Ottawa. You guys seem to be partially salvaging your winter, unlike Ottawa. Reminds me of January/February 2007. You guys got hit by a couple of footers while we got screwed. This is such a stale air mass we're in. 20F in Pembroke, 32F in Ottawa. I'm guessing the cold air is on its way. Kind of an odd forecast tomorrow. The daytime high is forecast to only be a degree or so above tonight's overnight low. yeah it has been a partial salvage job. I doubt our snowpacks look very different though. hopefully we can all pick up some real snow tonight and early tomororw as the cold air moves in. could be several inches here.....latest trends say ottawa may even get into some ok snow for a short period but it will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 yeah it has been a partial salvage job. I doubt our snowpacks look very different though. hopefully we can all pick up some real snow tonight and early tomororw as the cold air moves in. could be several inches here.....latest trends say ottawa may even get into some ok snow for a short period but it will be close. Around what time? Light snow is falling at the moment, which is at least atmospheric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Around what time? Light snow is falling at the moment, which is at least atmospheric. overnight into early morning hours sometime i shouldnt have been so dramtic as it wont be much likely....may be a burst of snow as the cold air comes in? but at least things will freshen up and cool down ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 WWA and Lake Effect Snow Watches are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TONOON EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS: SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK...EXCLUDING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. * HAZARDS: SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS: 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Updated nws forecast Tonight: Snow. Low around 21. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow showers. High near 24. Breezy, with a north wind between 13 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. ...WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW ENDS BY MIDDAY...LAKE EFFECTSNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG WILL APPROACH WITH ONE MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER INITIALLY...THE FLOW WILL WEST ALLOWING FOR A POSSIBLE BAND TO COME OFF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME HOWEVER...AS THE IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES AND WE NOW HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN ANGLE...VERTICAL INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR SQUALL TYPE SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THESE WOULD TEND TO BE VERY BRIEF AND USUALLY DON/T YIELD MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION. FURTHERMORE...THEY CAN BE DISTRIBUTIVE THE SLANT WISE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THESE SQUALLS CAN PRODUCE BLINDING SNOWS FOR 5 TO 15 MINUTES...ENOUGH TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON THE ROAD WAYS. ALSO...THE COULD EVEN BE AN INITIAL LAKE CHAMPLAIN RESPONSE PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS OUT NORTHERN TACONICS. NMM & ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Updated nws forecast NMM & ARW These maps would seem to imply that Ottawa will still be getting some light snow on Tuesdy and Wednesday. Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 Snow has started here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2011 Share Posted February 7, 2011 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAYA RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM OFF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IF CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGH ENOUGH THAT NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WILL REACH BETWEEN 46 AND 59 MPH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED AS WELL IF WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BECOME LOW ENOUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Moderate Snow here around BGM for the past 30 minutes. Even though it is 33.4°F attm the snow has already formed a coating on the roadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Snow has picked up here also, roads are now covered.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 2"+ here at 1800' just a trace @ 1000' in the valley. It's going to be an elevation driven over performer here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 The first flakes have just started to fly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 Light snow is falling here....maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 If anyone can guess whose been visiting the deck tonight and wandering around, this is how much snow we have so far. It's very fine, tiny flakes. (Hint, this little guy has a naked tail, but he's not a rat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You wouldn't be playing possum with us, would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nearpass Posted February 8, 2011 Share Posted February 8, 2011 You wouldn't be playing possum with us, would you? You get the prize...already! Sometimes I think we need a bit of levity/fun/slight change of topic around here. She/he has been around for a few days, since the temps got milder, and I'm a sucker for putting stuff out for the wildlife when the weather's tough. A side of winter I don't see here very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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