40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GGEM is a less amplified version of the RGEM...probably a rain to snow situation. Nice run for Monadnocks though and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 That path on the ginx storm as depicted will give EVERYONE a copious front end dump of snow similar to March of 1993...path is similar albeit 50 miles further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I am really worried about Saturday as well, if it is going to be more of a liquid event than I hope it has as little QPF as possible. This storm end of the week if it worked would certainly be history for many...this is why I kind of hope Saturday can work out and the Monday/Tuesday can perform into a few inches...BDL could certainly get to 100'' by the end of the week. The problem is that if it ends up liquid, it's going to have MORE mositure....I hope it gets sheared to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think the EURO is going to be alot of rain for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think the EURO is going to be alot of rain for E MA. I predict not. RGEM/UKMET haven't changed. NAM trended less amp. CMC GGEM is actually less amped vs prior runs. Euro has been consistent through all this chaos. It's either wrong or has the right idea of a snow event pure and simple outside of 128 and rain/mix to snow inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 The problem is that if it ends up liquid, it's going to have MORE mositure....I hope it gets sheared to nothing. You're probably right...this post brings back memories...When I was a sophomore in high school I was talking with a science teacher there who has a met. degree about one storm, and I said one comment and he said well if it's liquid it will have more moisture In this case than I agree, I hoped it would get sheared to nothing. This is just going to be one helluva forecast, one that I would certainly want to be as conservative as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is very similar to OP for track near BM except a tad stronger so the precip shield mean definitely looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 WTF is going on with models??? UKIE and RGEM are completely different. Someone is going to get seriously schooled. below LOL...Ukie brings Logan11 a rainstorm. This model agreement is awful. This is like the late 90s again. below I'm gonna puke if the UK and RGEM win. below Meh, I say more like the mid to late 1980's I just got back...was trying to figure out wtf was going on....how in the world at 48 hours can there be this much spread? Something has got to be wrong with data quality somewhere...either in what we're using or what we're sending to others. Always seems to be most severe with systems coming over the Rio Grande too..... The UK and presumably the RGEM/GGEM are notably different even by 36 hours. They're slower and west with the s/w which eventually means they're stronger/west into CPA. Who's right? Been a bias all year that the UK ends up left, but surprised by the RGEM. Weird clearly something is amiss, seems odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is very similar to OP for track near BM except a tad stronger so the precip shield mean definitely looks better. At least the EURO and GFS areeach well supported by their ensembles. Jerry, the GEM and RGEM have each trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 sat storm for sne area is snow dont worry for inland areas of sne 5- 8 inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 sat storm for sne area is snow dont worry for inland areas of sne 5- 8 inches . And your reasoning is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I couldnt attach until I delete files...36h is about the witching our on guidance is it our NCEP models crapping out or the foreigners.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 below below below I just got back...was trying to figure out wtf was going on....how in the world at 48 hours can there be this much spread? Something has got to be wrong with data quality somewhere...either in what we're using or what we're sending to others. Always seems to be most severe with systems coming over the Rio Grande too..... The UK and presumably the RGEM/GGEM are notably different even by 36 hours. They're slower and west with the s/w which eventually means they're stronger/west into CPA. Who's right? Been a bias all year that the UK ends up left, but surprised by the RGEM. Weird clearly something is amiss, seems odd. At this short lead, I can't imagine the EURO and GFS ens mean being that far off, so I'm gonna stick to it, but I am nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 At this short lead, I can't imagine the EURO and GFS ens mean being that far off, so I'm gonna stick to it, but I am nervous. How are the Euro ens? All snow here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 got a couple drinks in me EURO needs to tick SE...GEM and NAM are flip flopping ride the GEFS, been right all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just not that interesting to me...hope it spins around but I don't think anything the euro will show/say has much relevance...will wait for the Friday models. Night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just not that interesting to me...hope it spins around but I don't think anything the euro will show/say has much relevance...will wait for the Friday models. Night! Huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Huh Haha I have no idea what I meant to say...? Only 3 beers and a long work day. I think I was meaning re we get some clarity towards the non rain. I don't know...it hasn't been this bad in a decade I just feel there's got to be data issues somewhere or glaring algo issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I think the EURO is going west. ..that is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll believe when it actually happens.... I think the EURO is going west. ..that is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Either they are chopping down snow banks or they are plowing...I think it's the later though, driveway of the package store was a MESS earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 I'll believe when it actually happens.... It definitely is....I'm prob gonna be mainly rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It definitely is....I'm prob gonna be mainly rain this run. Who's fanny is the low tracking up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 looks like a 996 low right over long island at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro is a torch!!! Man this modeling is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 850's crash from 48 to 54.. decent hit for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It would be a quick flash to snow though on the Euro...heights crash quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Euro is a torch!!! Man this modeling is crazy. Makes me sick....we were so close bridging the gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 It would be a quick flash to snow though on the Euro...heights crash quickly. I see that, it looks worse initially, but who knows how far it trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Well I'm just relaxing after driving 400 miles today. Very deep snow on the east side of the Hudson Valley from northern Westchester to a bit SE of ALB. Like you are driving through tunnels. I guess SNE looks like that. It definitely is....I'm prob gonna be mainly rain this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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