isnice Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it's the track of the low that's the issue... if we lived in Wombat Falls, Kentucky, and the low passes to our NW, the same thing would happen, no? Yea, I guess you're right. It seems to happen much more often here though. I don't have actual statistics, but it's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Generally a SW flow event which originates more in the northern stream and is suppressed by a strong PV or high in the NE US would cause both ORD and NYC to see big snows but those are rare....1/26/94 and 2/8/94 are probably two examples I can think of and those were maybe 4-8 inch events in both cities, not 12+. didn't really look into those with much detail, but: 1.26 event had a 1044mb high over northern New England, pre-event 2.8 had more of a banana high over the northern Great Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Generally a SW flow event which originates more in the northern stream and is suppressed by a strong PV or high in the NE US would cause both ORD and NYC to see big snows but those are rare....1/26/94 and 2/8/94 are probably two examples I can think of and those were maybe 4-8 inch events in both cities, not 12+. Newark and other areas in/around nyc had 12+ during that Feb 8, 94 event which was followed on Feb 10th/11th by a 15"+. One of my favorite winter weeks. Temps in the 40s preceeded the storm the dropped like a rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's doing the Euro pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Newark and other areas in/around nyc had 12+ during that Feb 8, 94 event which was followed on Feb 10th/11th by a 15"+. One of my favorite winter weeks. Temps in the 40s preceeded the storm the dropped like a rock. The setup is a bit similar for the next 3 days, unfortunately the high is not as far south for either event and the 2nd event this time is way too strong...the 2/11 event in 1994 the low remained very weak not forcing much mid or low level warming, also the surface low if you event want to call it that was off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's doing the Euro pbp? Count me in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Who's doing the Euro pbp? Someone will get to it I'm sure but this is about how everyone here feels right now................of course greed makes more greed...56 inches and we want more.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Newark and other areas in/around nyc had 12+ during that Feb 8, 94 event which was followed on Feb 10th/11th by a 15"+. One of my favorite winter weeks. Temps in the 40s preceeded the storm the dropped like a rock. i remember that vividly........ and being dumbfounded at the time. but in recent years i've read many claims the total at newark on the 2nd storm were bogus. they may have been measuring total snow depth as opposed to new snow... or something like that. i dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I will still be sitting in Secaucus waiting for my train when the Euro comes in. FML. I've been a bit out of the loop on this, but havnt received any late night texts from Earthlight exclaiming things like "OMG EURO" so I'm assuming this storm isn't going well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i remember that vividly........ and being dumbfounded at the time. but in recent years i've read many claims the total at newark on the 2nd storm were bogus. they may have been measuring total snow depth as opposed to new snow... or something like that. i dunno. Yeah, I never bought that total at all....NYC saw 12.7 I think that day and they did not mix, only the south shore of Bklyn, Queens, and LI did....my guess is what you said might be correct about the measuring total amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i remember that vividly........ and being dumbfounded at the time. but in recent years i've read many claims the total at newark on the 2nd storm were bogus. they may have been measuring total snow depth as opposed to new snow... or something like that. i dunno. I was in Staten Island then and remember totals closer to EWR than the park> we observe a few inch disparity between ewr/nyc almost every storm. Including all 4 major ones this this year NYC : 8.9 / 13.0 EWR : 13 / 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Someone will get to it I'm sure but this is about how everyone here feels right now................of course greed makes more greed...56 inches and we want more.... I love the late night crew...shooting the breeze with you guys has been awesome so far this winter. I have had a ridiculous amount of snow this winter...it can rain all it wants at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Someone will get to it I'm sure but this is about how everyone here feels right now................of course greed makes more greed...56 inches and we want more.... Ehh, I knew that eventually the Nina would reassert itself and the more typical cutter regime would resume. Such a strong Nina as this one can't be denied forever. Time for NNE and the Midwest to cash in. I'm actually rooting on sleet this time so that the snowpack stays intact longer. I know that barring a miracle I'm cooked at least for a few hours. As long as temps don't spike past 40 we should still have a good amount of snow left after this, and hopefully prime for Feb 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hey, quick! Read this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ehh, I knew that eventually the Nina would reassert itself and the more typical cutter regime would resume. Such a strong Nina as this one can't be denied forever. Time for NNE and the Midwest to cash in. I'm actually rooting on sleet this time so that the snowpack stays intact longer. I know that barring a miracle I'm cooked at least for a few hours. As long as temps don't spike past 40 we should still have a good amount of snow left after this, and hopefully prime for Feb 5. I was commenting on the same and the shift from guidance throwing out all the near misses or being to far offshore to dealing with the more traditional r/s line issues now. With that, despite the lack of blocking the gfs looks rather cold and the ecm near normal. 00z ggem has both the 2/5-6 and 2/9-10 storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was in Staten Island then and remember totals closer to EWR than the park> we observe a few inch disparity between ewr/nyc almost every storm. Including all 4 major ones this this year NYC : 8.9 / 13.0 EWR : 13 / 17 okay. that's interesting. certainly lends cred. i was in east brunswick in 1994... the feb 11 storm i had 7.2" so the 17" at newark seemed steep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 okay. that's interesting. certainly lends cred. i was in east brunswick in 1994... the feb 11 storm i had 7.2" so the 17" at newark seemed steep. Yeah that was nearly 20 yrs ago so, who knows. Surprised E. Brunswick was that low. What a special winter that was also that followed the record hot 1993 summer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I never bought that total at all....NYC saw 12.7 I think that day and they did not mix, only the south shore of Bklyn, Queens, and LI did....my guess is what you said might be correct about the measuring total amounts. Yeah it sucks we mixed because the original forecast was for the south shore to get the most (12-18 inches) but we got over 10 inches even though it changed over to sleet--- one of the very few times JFK has had a double digit storm changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ehh, I knew that eventually the Nina would reassert itself and the more typical cutter regime would resume. Such a strong Nina as this one can't be denied forever. Time for NNE and the Midwest to cash in. I'm actually rooting on sleet this time so that the snowpack stays intact longer. I know that barring a miracle I'm cooked at least for a few hours. As long as temps don't spike past 40 we should still have a good amount of snow left after this, and hopefully prime for Feb 5. Yeah, but that cant change the fact that we've had one of the greatest winters of all time. Even if Feb averages 90, nothing can change that. If you had a choice, you'd probably pick to have Dec and Jan be like this than Feb and Mar-- as you've also probably noticed, snowcover isnt nearly as durable in Feb as it is in Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I love the late night crew...shooting the breeze with you guys has been awesome so far this winter. I have had a ridiculous amount of snow this winter...it can rain all it wants at this point. I agree, Met winter ends in 4 weeks-- as far as Im concerned, let's have a torch spring and summer (again)-- bring on the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my thoughts on the event, I think the ice threat is real and could be serious for some. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I agree, Met winter ends in 4 weeks-- as far as Im concerned, let's have a torch spring and summer (again)-- bring on the 90s I'll drink to that but only after St Patty's day, till then let it snow> Then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's my thoughts on the event, I think the ice threat is real and could be serious for some. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Nice analysis iso. I agree with the ice threat especially in n-nj (near i-78)/nyc and expect surface progs still under done. Another interseting week, maybe central park can squeeze in an inch ust prior to midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even last winter, we had times where the Nino actually tried to take over the pattern and the blocking was fading. It of course then came back after a short period of time. The fact that we're actually in a typical Nina pattern should be no surprise. However, I'd be surprised if it lasted more than 2 weeks. The 2nd half of February and March should have many snow chances. And it would be great if the Feb 5/6 storm panned out and gave everyone several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 HPC is bullish on at least 0.25" and perhaps up to 0.50" ice accrual for NYC metro and points north and west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo' pbp of the ecm implies ice risk nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro is significantly colder at 60 hours.. 32 F isotherm runs off the South Shore through PHL. 850 0c is through Central CT towards Orange Co. Man, that's a cold surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo' pbp of the ecm implies ice risk nyc. yes at hr 60 the surface is below frz, yet 850's are too our north. Im not educated enough to know if this is frz rain or not. Because it can just be plain rain at 30 degrees. Probly gonna have to nowcast this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 From what I see, the EURO looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 EC DAY 3: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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