tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tombo, for those of out west, what does pit, johnstown, Morgantown, Altoona, state college, and hbg look like? jtw .4-.5 mgt .75 sce .25-.5 mdt .75 alt .4-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Tom, ISP or OKX, if you could? isp 1.75-2 okx 1.75-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 isp 1.75-2 okx 1.75-2 Could you do one of your fantastically color contoured snow total maps.......for old times' sake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 thanks jesus!! even if .5" fall as rain we still have 1.25-1.5" of QPF to play around with... i hope this beats the past two storms that we had here its .75-1 frozen for central li east...the 850s dont cross till after hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EWR was in the heaviest band in the Dec 26 storm and saw 24" of snow with 1.64" liquid equivalent. I highly doubt anyone in NJ saw more than 2" of liquid equivalent, given that ratios were around 15 to 1. I'd love the suny MM5, although its not exactly dec 26th material. some parts of eastern NJ saw 2-2.5" QPF from that storm, and this model only shows 1.75" at best (comparable to recent EMCWF runs), with paltry ratios coming from the marginally cold 1000-800mb layer. I'd say a max of 18" along the southern half of the NJTurnpike from staten island to about wilmington, DE would fall on this run. That said, its an amazing depiction by a model that has been known for nailing mesoscale bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Could you do one of your fantastically color contoured snow total maps.......for old times' sake? well it wouldmt be representative of snow cause especially south and east of the cities and a little bit in the cities is contaminated with mixing and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 fwiw euro has lgt snow for the region both sat and sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did any of the new flight recon make it to tonights runs? I seriously cannot remember the last time I saw perfect model unanimity at 48 - 60 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EWR was in the heaviest band in the Dec 26 storm and saw 24" of snow with 1.64" liquid equivalent. I highly doubt anyone in NJ saw more than 2" of liquid equivalent, given that ratios were around 15 to 1. I don't think anyone in the immediate NYC metro area saw above 12:1 ratios from that storm. The snow growth wasn't optimal with all the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Did any of the new flight recon make it to tonights runs? I seriously cannot remember the last time I saw perfect model unanimity at 48 - 60 hrs out. Recon tomorrow for 12Z and 00Z runs. I think the 12Z gets both PAC and Atlantic data, 00Z gets Atlantic data only. Then Wed 12Z will have data too from Atlantic, last time I saw Recon schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ok...now I'm confused. Could you do a rain/snow/mix/ice total map instead? Just add like 10 colors to your scheme and get to work immediately. kthanks hb i just tell you your location, its impossible to do a map the cutoffs in the interior is insane...your area is prob 95 percent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Given the very cold temps over the past few days, snow should stick well on pavement even with sfc temps in the mid 30s. One only has to compare the last two runs of the SREF's (which normally are somewhat consistent) which made huge changes in only 6 hrs. It literally went from 8+ in. for Scranton, PA to flurries. We can't take this to the bank until tomorrow nigh, I'm sorry to say. This is especially true in this sort of setup where if you aren't under the CCB, you're screwed (with marginal temps, we are going to need heavy snow to really bring down the surface temps and get anything to stick well on pavement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro and UKMET are tucked in pretty close to the Delmarva at 48hrs. The GFS and GGEM are NE of there with the NAM a bit further out. GEFS finally starting to look like the Euro and Euro ensembles. A compromise between the 0z Euro and GFS would yield a golden solution for PHL through NYC corridor. This is what HPC and local offices are likely to identify as the preferable forecast. High QPF and just cold enough. Almost the perfect outcome for metro areas. It's somewhat unusual to see the Euro printing out widespread 1.5 inch liquid for a medium duration event in the short term. It's one of, if not the most accurate model with respect to short range QPF and does not frequently overdo this parameter. NAM, MM5, and the hi-res models go bonkers with QPF often, but seeing this on the Euro has to raise eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 exact QPF for select PA locations ABE 1.04 (850's below whole time) RDG 1.09 (850's below whole time) LNS 1.18 (850's below whole time) MDT .71 (850 below whole time) PHL 1.59 ( 850 are above for at least .39 of that) MPO .71 (850 below whole time) PTW 1.34 (850 reach .4 after a period of .32") THV (york)- .98 (850 below whole time) AVP- .42 (850 below through out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey Tom, Sorry to bother, but if you can, could I get the numbers for either GED or DOV? And if any of that is snow? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Recon tomorrow for 12Z and 00Z runs. I think the 12Z gets both PAC and Atlantic data, 00Z gets Atlantic data only. Then Wed 12Z will have data too from Atlantic, last time I saw Recon schedule. Thanks, I m guessing Mt holly and upton will likely wait and see until 12 z runs before issuing any warnings or advisories.That is if, still big if, tonights hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParsippanyWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro and UKMET are tucked in pretty close to the Delmarva at 48hrs. The GFS and GGEM are NE of there with the NAM a bit further out. GEFS finally starting to look like the Euro and Euro ensembles. A compromise between the 0z Euro and GFS would yield a golden solution for PHL through NYC corridor. This is what HPC and local offices are likely to identify as the preferable forecast. High QPF and just cold enough. Almost the perfect outcome for metro areas. It's somewhat unusual to see the Euro printing out widespread 1.5 inch liquid for a medium duration event in the short term. It's one of, if not the most accurate model with respect to short range QPF and does not frequently overdo this parameter. NAM, MM5, and the hi-res models go bonkers with QPF often, but seeing this on the Euro has to raise eyebrows. Agree 100% regarding the Euro QPF, this will certainly set off the alarms over at HPC. I use the Hi-Res models to narrow down QPF ranges but I don't take the QPF values they depict litterally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't even bother dude, I was j/k. I have a good enough idea, just have a warm place in my heart for the maps themselves. i would do one, but the gradient is nuts, and i know ppl are going to be like well that doesnt match up to what you said, you need like bifocals to see it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Someone please for the love of G-d help me out. I'm moving overseas to Israel this Wednesday till June and this will be the last chance I see snow this winter. Someone please tell me that my flight at 6pm will be cancelled and I'll get to see this snow... ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hey Tom, Sorry to bother, but if you can, could I get the numbers for either GED or DOV? And if any of that is snow? Thanks in advance! 1.5-1.75 looks like 2-4 may be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Agree 100% regarding the Euro QPF, this will certainly set off the alarms over at HPC. I use the Hi-Res models to narrow down QPF ranges but I don't take the QPF values they depict litterally. I have a picture in my head of alarms literally sounding throughout an office building and people running around freaking out. It makes me smile. A few blobs or streaks of 1.5 liquid on the ARW is just not the same kind of thing as a QPF stripe of this magnitude on the Euro. And this isn't one of those exotic day 7 fantasy storms that every model draws up on occasion. I use the hi-res the same way you describe. Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 EWR was in the heaviest band in the Dec 26 storm and saw 24" of snow with 1.64" liquid equivalent. I highly doubt anyone in NJ saw more than 2" of liquid equivalent, given that ratios were around 15 to 1. eastern monmouth and ocean counties were under that band for much longer, and nobody got over 30". KACY officially had a LE of 1.76" but only 20" of accumulation (11.4:1 ratio), so its easy to assume the places that got 30" just up the coast had to have at least 2-2.5" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 going off 850 solely prob 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking at the HPC updated prelim. snowfall graphics, still a rather low prob for either 8 or 12 inches for NYC and the immediate coastal vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking at the HPC updated prelim. snowfall graphics, still a rather low prob for either 8 or 12 inches for NYC and the immediate coastal vicinity. They always seem on the low end to me.....very conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those graphics were last updated at 18z Mon. Next update will be in an hour or 2. Looking at the HPC updated prelim. snowfall graphics, still a rather low prob for either 8 or 12 inches for NYC and the immediate coastal vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 exact QPF for select PA locations ABE 1.04 (850's below whole time) RDG 1.09 (850's below whole time) LNS 1.18 (850's below whole time) MDT .71 (850 below whole time) PHL 1.59 ( 850 are above for at least .39 of that) MPO .71 (850 below whole time) PTW 1.34 (850 reach .4 after a period of .32") THV (york)- .98 (850 below whole time) AVP- .42 (850 below through out What do you mean when you say "850s reach .4 after a period of .32"? Does that mean 1.02" is snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for all the pbp and everyones opinions and information. What will the winds be like during the night on Wenesday for the Phila area? does anyone think blizzard watches will be put up in the Phila/NYC area? No. It'll be windy, but not blizzard-level. Likely 15-25mph at best for coastal counties, 10-20mph inland. the NAM had 25-30mph winds along the immediate coast (and by that i mean just the beaches), but thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks for all the pbp and everyones opinions and information. What will the winds be like during the night on Wenesday for the Phila area? does anyone think blizzard watches will be put up in the Phila/NYC area? no...it seems wind top off around 15-20 sustained at most, maybe some gusts to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Those graphics were last updated at 18z Mon. Next update will be in an hour or 2. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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