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Showing results for tags 'rain'.
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This posts due to forum interest in wintry weather, but with uncertainty on evolution of precipitation events and how far south ice or snow can develop (even a low chance NYC). Marginal thermal profiles may limit snow or ice to I84 northward but may be worth monitoring for a minor or moderate wintry weather event I84. The NAEFS pattern along with various models, though cyclically inconsistent, suggest the possibility that the latter part of the Mondays(14th) precipitation could be a little ice or even end as snow along the I84 corridor. A wintry event possibility. Evolution thereafter is uncertain but it appears there will be some sort of decent storm system heading into the northeast USA which has a chance to involve snow-ice, at least along the I84 corridor. It's possible short wave interactions will force a northward buckle of the thicknesses and result in all rain but for now, I think there is enough model guidance to open the door for some wintry weather, mainly I84, sometime between 16th-18th. Confidence for one or two precipitation events in that 5 day period is above average, and a good sign is the constancy of a decently strong upper level jet just to our south (LF quad= exit region), frequently with the jet core near VA. Normal High Low at CP next week is ~43-32. Added two graphics: the WPC midday Tuesday (8th) chance of of more than 1/4" frozen water equivalent Monday the 14th. and the CPC D6-10 outlook for the 14th-18th. As we draw closer, it may be that we'll delete some of this and refocus the topic title- for now, this should hold us. Let's see if we can get a little winter in our area next week. -
Have a feeling this thread ends hot and dry. Hope I am wrong. Right now it is raining nearly every day. Feels like coastal Maine. For the historical record, many of us are stuck inside anyway due to COVID19 restrictions and voluntary social distancing. Many are working from home. These are trying times. I hope by the end of this thread, this pandemic is over and we are again worried about wx maps, future winter patterns, and ENSO. This thread will be primarily for pattern discussion both in the near and short term. If your family has a need due to the illness, send us a PM or put it on blast in the banter thread.
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Almost everything outside of the mid-week light snow shower chance is now based in hoping February's decent ensemble modeling trends aren't the 40th head fake of the winter season. The GEFS snow mean is nice but seemingly meaningless the past few winters, as it has virtually not verified in 48 months when it shows these snowy solutions. The Euro at D10 looks better than it did at day 10 yesterday, so there's that. Still looks like a robust frontal passage behind a cutter in a fast moving pattern, rather than something that will set up shop and allow for truly cold weather to arrive for any length of time. If we get lucky and the Polar Vortex splits but will it help us? It split last year and record breaking cold hit the Midwest but didn't propagate into our back yards. I've not looked but I'd guess there's been very few times when Chicago had highs in the -10 range that it didn't get cold here. Last year that happened and we stayed warm. It also takes a few weeks for the PV to change weather in the Lower 48 most of the time. That would put us on track for the backside of February into March at best, where even with the aid of the TPV we'd probably be looking at lower elevation cold rain and elevated snow unless we got a bowling ball. If we are still hoping to reel in something in the D9-16 range in a week or 10 days, winter is likely over until late March or April, where it will invariably turn frigid for 2 weeks with rain or snow showers.
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Going to get this loaded and on-deck for observations for December, January, and February. Specific events will likely have their own observation threads. This thread is for the time in between events. Winter is coming! In honor of the last Skywalker movie...
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With significant post-frontal snow looking increasingly possible for the northern and mid tiers of the Tennessee Valley under current modeling, going forward I figured I'd start ourselves a little thread dedicated to it and the potential early start to the winter season!
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This is a GREAT place for those not comfortable yet(on the pattern discussion forum) to place their observations. We really need some more folks from the western areas of our sub-forum to place observations here. We actually use those more than you know. Today has been HOT in the Tri-Cities with the third straight record high falling as we speak. Heat index is 96 out there. Feels like a horribly hot summer day. Just brutal. Another year and another hot Fall...I really don't like those. We do have some great discussion in the Fall Pattern Discussion and ENSO threads about when this heat may FINALLY break. Cause really for folks that cool weather, this sucks. LOL.
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Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future. IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system. Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming. Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts. We will have to continue to monitor future runs. For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.
