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Showing results for tags 'rain'.
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Have at it. After a very warm winter, especially January and February, Spring has arrived early to the forum area. Oddly, my peach tree is holding tight and refusing to bloom. Here is the 6z GEFS which seems pretty representative of most LR ensembles. The Weeklies do depict March 7-14 for a return to "cooler than normal" for a brief time before going full bore into Spring w AN temps. The 0z EPS barely supports yesterday's Weeklies. To be sure the Weeklies have not been predictable in the LR when showing cold. Time for March Madness, baseball, severe weather(we have a severe thread), planting gardens(have a thread for that as well), rain, and retreating cold(did it ever get here?).
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Introducing the new Ultimate Weather App. Unlike other apps, this app will use actual observations (not an electromagnetic beam) to show where precipitation is. This app will show users the location of all 5 precipitation types (rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail). Most other weather apps only show rain, snow, and “mix.” Some weather programs (like Radar Scope Pro and GrEARTH) charge $19.99 a month. The Ultimate Weather App only costs $9.99 as a one-time fee. Pay $9.99 once, and you’ll have the app forever.
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The storm prediction has this area marked as a 15% chance of severe weather on Friday: This severe weather will most likely be sparked by the winter storm taking shape. However, helicity and tornado parameter models are showing that if severe weather does occur, it won't be as bad as it could be. This is at it's peak for the area that could possibly face bad weather. What level of severity do you guys think all of these storms will happen at?
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Just trying to update some things. I say we try some seasonal observation threads if nobody objects. It will create a way to file things instead of sifting through a big thread. I have 41 degrees here in Kingsport which began with a morning of heavy fog enhanced by the local paper plant. It was clear today with some 10-15 mph wind gusts around noon. Felt a lot like Fall. I feel like this drought has robbed us of a normal Fall. The North Fork of the Holston had revealed rocks during these dry times that I cannot remember ever seeing. This morning all of those rocks were gone, covered by the waters from this week's welcome rains. When I did the leaves today, it was the first time I had not been covered in dust for months. I kept thinking about all of those folks displaced by the fire in Gatlinburg and about the families who lost loved ones. I also thought about Dolly Parton and how she stepped up to the plate when this region needed her. I thought about how my yard had some green in it for the first time in a long time. This drought has been more than a nuisance. It created the worst fire season I can remember or that my dad can remember. I hope we are about to put that fire season in the rear view mirror and that we can keep making a dent in the drought.
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Figured we might as well get this one going. The Euro has this system effecting the area in less than 5 days. GFS day 5-6. We've all seen the model runs, some version of this event has been showing up for a week or so now, but as is typical with Southern systems the models are all over the place from run to run. Today they've generally came into agreement that there will be a system that will effect at least some of the region. Up in the air as to which parts. Could be winter as far south as the 1-20 corridor, could be Northern TN/Southern Ky/SWVA and everyone in between. There is even a minor system that ushers in cold just before this one that might provide some minor accumulations. This time frame should be the event to watch but that too is up in the air still due to massive model madness. Best case for the region comes from quite a number of GFES ens members. Most of them show a wide variety of systems that hit in favorable ways for our region. Thus the beautiful means map that gives solid averages to about as wide a swath of our area as you'll ever see. That just shows how many of us are in the game at this point. Worst case is probably the 00z GFS op. It's a miller b type which means warming for most of the valley region. Maybe not all, it even has a front side thump. Some of us picked up a nice event out in front of a rainer last year. Next is the GGEM which was a little too far south but still gave the area a decent 1-3 inch average. I've not seen a 6 hour breakdown on the Euro, but I know the following panel is a look I'd take all day long in winter.
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Even though the next 10 days won't feel like it, I guess that it is time for the fall thread! Will we ever get meaningful rain again? When will that first night in the 40s arrive....last year in Chatt it was Oct 14.
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I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
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20hr nam has it.
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It all looks but for certain some flooding rains and wind are headed to Florida. Uncertainty exists upon exit with coastal issues for the South-East becoming possible. Waves and rip currents at least, but possibly squally weather could occur up the South-East coasts. I will have LIVE reporting on the South-East coast if conditions warrant a trip to Myrtle Beach, South Carolina!
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Since met winter is coming to a close it's time for the Spring 2016 Tennessee Valley Edition.I changed the wording on the Nina thread to just Nina and took out the spring discussion.This way there is no confusion with two different topics.
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It appears all but certain some interesting weather will be occurring around our neck of the woods for the holiday travel/events. Below is a look at a hurricane model. Some tornadoes will also be possible if the below materializes. The HWRF takes it to 50knots near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.
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Less than 24hrs out and models have come around to a quick but potent torrential rain threat for tomorrow across the region. Looks like initial threat will be across c/w areas before shifting e in the afternoon. Potential for 1"+ in a short timeframe which may lead to localized flooding. For those like me that have to go to a parade, joy....
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Hurricane force winds, blizzard conditions, epic weather that only lasted 2-3 hours across the Cape and Islands poured fear into the residents minds that the end of the world was indeed today. The horror stories of my sister being caught in a movie theater with no power, my brother being caught in a microburst where the winds were unmeasurable, my dad caught in a wind storm that brought every tree you could think of into the road he was driving along, then of course my epic two plus hour bus ride from Bishop Stang in No. Dartmouth, MA where the weather was pedestrian during the early afternoon, soon began to turn to the more wilder side as the rain turned to sleet just as I was embarking on the worst afternoon of my life. Moments upon leaving Stang, the sleet turned to a wind driven snowfall where it started accumulating rapidly the further east I went. Traffic along route 25 in Wareham and then route 3 along the Canal went towards a standstill traffic wise as the first sign of snow snarled up traffic badly. My dad and siblings whoever was with him trying to pick me up at the bus stop was amazed at all the trees that fell down into the roads. Luckily I didn't face the microburst as I was behind the surface low and tropopause fold, and now I am waiting to witness those winds again, maybe in a hurricane, but an extratropical low will be just fine as well.
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I created a website where you can save radar images of snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain, or hail. http://geocities.ws/radarchive
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Thought it's time to start a thread.Will change the dates when it's fine tuned.Feel the GFS to start with is missing the thermals being we have a Caribbean and GOM flow,it's to cold to me to start with,this effects instability.Believe we should see some better instabilities than what is being shown.The flood threat even if the heavy axis of rain isn't shown at the start and more to the west this should still fill the tributaries heading into the Ms River,this should be a big deal with multiple systems being shown through the week
