TellicoWx
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Everything posted by TellicoWx
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I've noticed it's not counting the sleet in the snow accum or freezing rain categories..may not amount to much but with temps right at the freezing line, it's something to watch
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Sleet being reported just to the NW of Birmingham (Dora, AL) with a temp/dp of 41/25. Those returns weren't picked up by the HRRR
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Topped out (so far lol) at 42.1 down to 40.3 now (DP also falling again). It's like any other winter system in the central/southern valley...will have to thread a very small needle. Cold retreats too quick (moisture streams in) get rain...cold holds too long/stronger (moisture gets wasted on virga)
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Not necessarily...look at the DP, they are setting in very dry air (heats up quicker with sunshine)...you can see how dry it is on the soundings. Problem with the HRRR now, isn't the cold retreating..it's a moisture problem. It's now seeing a dry nose hold longer in the valley vs the earlier runs. 19z vs 16z
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You can see what the HRRR is starting to pickup on in the globals. If you look at the 1022 line on the 12z Euro vs 12z NAM...you can see how the HP gets wedged down the valley (snow/ice) vs letting go and retreating north (rain)
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Yeah, 16z top..12z bottom
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Something interesting of note..the HRRR has been trending just a hair stronger with the HP influence down the valley with each run vs 12z..it's just enough to hold the snow in the valley longer. Interested in seeing if this trend continues. 12z vs 16z
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0z HRRR picking up on the cold overnight more vs 18z in the valley
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I've seen it happen here in Monroe..Sweetwater to Mt Vernon area pickup 3"-4"....Tellico nada but rain. If the downsloping winds are strong enough, it will scour the foothills that bank right up against the Smokies/CNF quickly, while 5-10 miles away locks in the cold way longer.
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15z RAP with another paste job
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0z NAM starting to step toward the other models...brings ice into the eastern valley
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Think the GFS is trying to pickup all the valley locations, but doesn't have a low enough resolution. It's trying to show the cold becoming entrenched but the algorithm is spitting out snow...that's an ice look.
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18z GFS...keep working that mojo Carvers lol
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Up to 1365 w/o power now
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Well that was interesting, temps went from 42 to 59 back to 39...in a span of 15-20 mins. Had wind gust close to 60mph, at the time..almost 1000 residences without power now.
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Crazy to think as most of the state deals with freezing weather, I will be close to 60 up here in the mountains tomorrow. Everyone from the plateau west stay safe/warm.
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If the cold can penetrate enough to give BHam 6" and New Orleans a major ice storm like the RAP showed..the valley would score as well. Has the bulk of the precip lagging behind the low
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I could easily see somewhere between Jackson and Nashville topping 12"..best ratios and qpf.
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West and Middle TN are about as locked in as you can get (barring a giant shift SE which would hurt western areas), the big question mark is the plateau/valley
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Based off the depth of the cold banked against the plateau on soundings.. the Eastern valley is literally only a 100' or so from being a sig. ice event vs mainly cold rain. GFS/NAM doesn't pull enough thicker cold to clear the plateau until the system has passed (due to track)..Euro would be very similar to the RGEM/CMC except it has multiple lows vs one primary (@850), which mess it up for one frame. RGEM would be more ice than depicted, once that cold tops the plateau it will rush into the valley.
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FRAM is the Freezing Rain Accumulation Model..similar to how Kuchera is used for snowfall...simulates the ice to liquid ratio for freezing rain events
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UKie on pivotal combines freezing rain/sleet with the snow accum
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Ugly 12z...systems almost train over the same areas
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GFS is just one system after the next for middle/west TN
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The higher the 850's are, the more heat that is trapped in the water molecules that must be released during the ice formation
