brooklynwx99

LOL thanks for catching that

Tomer is the same way, really really smart guy. gifted with data. but forecasting is a different art

lord

we’re seeing it now. STJ is wide open and the Aleutian low is in a perfect spot. N ATL trough is stable

yeah, the wave breaking is wayyyyy stronger this run. nice to see it makes sense, that initial trough establishes the block or at least tries too, then it connects with the trough ejecting from the SW

perhaps. it's a flawed threat considering heights out west are low. I would rather have an amping southern stream wave running into confluence rather than a ridge overhead, that's for sure. southern stream wave into confluence is a good way to win for someone

also, this is interesting. GEFS is much stronger with the confluent ULL this run. STJ is roaring and a wave slips under the block

1958 was more mid-Feb into early March... the timeline itself matches more than 2010

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely want to give it another week to allow this pattern to start getting within 7-10 days on ensembles, but I think we might be in for it. some of the winter cancel crap was silly

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely

seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-Feb. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely weeklies are also absolutely HONKING. they remind me of Feb 2010, 1978 and 1958, and 2010 has always been a very solid analog for later in the winter... 1958 was discussed as a good analog, too. that year has held up really well with the warm start, Jan blocking, and now a great Feb pattern lasting into early March I want to give things another week to simmer and allow for the favorable pattern to get inside 7-10 days on ENS, but I think we might be in for it. the winter cancel stuff earlier this week was ridiculous

Judah is failing to realize that what happens up top isn't exactly what happens down here. it's the same as a SSW event that doesn't couple. it seems like the stratosphere is going to do its own thing

wooooooosh

we have gotten multiple significant blocks over the last two years

still skeptical, but it’s hard not to get excited with these kinds of looks. no can kicking and the signal is growing in time if we’re seeing these looks in a week’s time, i think we can say this pattern is real… it would be around a week out on ENS

shift the Aleutian low west a bit and there you have it there were seven major storms in these three years in Feb thru early March

NYC south, really. BOS might have a hard time with strong blocking

there’s a 50/50 on a 7 day mean at like 3 weeks out. like holy crap lmao

yeah, every ensemble has been leading to that look with no push back on the timing. it’s kind of uncanny

i think people underestimate how much damage can be done in 3-4 weeks, as well

i’m not one for dramatics, but if the weeklies have the right idea, someone is getting a MECS or HECS it is literally a recreation of Feb 1958/1978/2010

weeklies are still loaded beyond belief. not a single tick back, either

EPS is near identical to the weeklies

that’s what gets kicked out or retrogrades. it’s not gonna stay there

i don’t think that the GFS solution is likely by any means, but it certainly is a possibility