brooklynwx99

weeklies are kind of ridiculous… locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo

gets better, actually. locked and loaded throughout the run. every member has a SSW that occurs by the 16th as some have already mentioned, I am skeptical about the effects of the SSW, as models are notoriously horrible with tropospheric effects. however, given the strength of the SSW, I would be more inclined to see a switch to a blocky pattern like this rather than keeping with the status quo

la nina

I hope that nobody thinks that anyone that's talking about the SSW is guaranteeing anything... it's just something that can legitimately lead to blocking late in the year and actually shake the pattern up. it's not voodoo either... this is very likely to occur

idk. blocking is showing up during the first week of the month on modeling, and you can get snow for almost the entire month if enough cold air is displaced. I'll take my chances, and if it doesn't happen, it'll torch and that'll be nice too like this storm happened with 10 days left on the month... was a significant one

that's the wild card. I wouldn't get super excited or anything, but the extended modeling is favoring blocking over none at all. I'll take it

SPV from 10-50mb gets torn to shreds. would not surprise me at all if we got blocky in March

hey, what else can we do? nothing in the pipeline for like 10-15 days after this

FWIW the Canadian ENS made a pretty significant shift towards the EPS. much stronger ULL and it's a good bit colder than the GEFS

FWIW the Canadian ENS made a significant improvement compared to 12z. way stronger with the ULL compared to 00z and colder than the GEFS

it is very difficult to get a snowstorm when the system is completely cut off from the northern stream with a bad antecedent airmass, no matter the time of year. this would be a major storm if there was any kind of cold air in place

I wouldn't say that. it's definitely all or nothing, but there is a threat here

considering the odds of 1"+ have steadily increased since 00z today and the 500mb track looks good, I would say it's a legit trend for Sunday

very nice EPS run. great 500mb track

here is the meteogram for BWI from the EPS… multiple significant snowfalls on there

all told, that was a great EPS run. exactly what i wanted to see

there’s a pretty notable NW lean here. much, much improved from 06z

hmm. this looks quite nice

EPS is much improved from 06z at 500mb

honestly, I'm not too bummed about that given the synoptic improvements from 00z. the EPS will be interesting in half an hour or so if they make the same changes. there were already some pretty nice members at 06z

not going to lie, this looks very good. definitely more amped than the GFS

the ECMWF is even the strongest of the 3 major models with the S/W. the CMC is the weakest... I would imagine that the strength even at 60 makes a big difference. doubt it's as flat as the CMC at this range tho

trust me, everyone should understand that this is a low-probability event due to a lack of blocking and no arctic air and blah blah blah. but it's nice to have something to track regardless... this certainly bears some watching

this is probably the only time I will ever say something like that is possible. but yes, if you do have that strong of a closed low, dynamic cooling does occur. it's not voodoo or anything like this is a sounding from NC where the GFS drops 6-10". that's more than cold enough and that's in the Carolinas. cutoffs do really weird crap so yes, I would absolutely take my chances with a ULL like that. the amped solutions are what everyone should be rooting for, because there is a 0% chance with a washed out POS

that is a possibility, but the UKMET has been known to have absolutely horrific thermals. I would take my chances with a dynamic solution like this