brooklynwx99

yup! still thinking after the 15th until the end of the month before a potential reload? there's a really strong correlation between -NAOs in Dec / Jan, so this isn't going to be a one and done either. there should be lots of chances' one of which is this weekend! kind of a weird setup, but we want to see the block and S/W strengthen in tandem to get more convergence... that's a really nice HP in Canada already though

haha I know that you guys got skunked with that storm, but I would roll the dice with that general setup every time in the MA

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies the EPS is also really nice after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

as i said yesterday… this looks horrible. draw the shades for a while

EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out

EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to need patience, but nothing has really changed. have to wait until the 15th onward most likely for anything substantial, but that was always the case

i thought winter was canceled i agree though. you have the strong WB -NAO and a stout -EPO to provide the cold air as well as vigorous NS shortwaves… the weakness off of S CA is also indicative of the STJ being somewhat active

i mean, most of the dissenting views that i’ve seen on this forum and others are just “well, this might not happen because i don’t think it will” with no actual analysis besides Murphy’s Law like a weird weather defensive coping mechanism

for what? two days around the 8th?

it isn’t really delayed though… it still shows up around the 12-14th which has been the window for a while now

some of you guys need to stop reading into all of these OP runs… this pattern is so amplified and it’s going to wreak havoc on NWP. even the ensembles (especially the GEFS/GEPS) are inconsistent and it’s also kinda been established by a few here that anything that happens before the 12-15th is gravy, so take what you can get beforehand, but don’t expect anything either

EPS still looks really good. it’s been the most consistent by far, and it’s pattern progression makes the most sense given the retrograding block and what they often do to the waveguide

beautiful

all of the hemming and hawing over this. can’t make it up

is this the part where everyone starts freaking out?

they have to take the thing out back and shoot it. it has no idea how to handle the Pacific right now total flip flop each run for the last two model cycles

yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen

god i hate this forum sometimes lmao

yeah, that's why you actually want a -PNA... you get really robust shortwaves crashing onto the WC that get trapped under the block, and the ridging near AK drives northern stream shortwaves southward to phase it's such a good pattern

ha, you're talking about weenie tags but all of this makes meteorological sense, and I agree with all of it the two main windows I'm watching now are indeed the 12-14th and the period between the 17th and 23rd or so. the big dog would be when the block decays the week of the 19th most likely

here are some of the actual plots, by the way. really cool stuff source: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

yeah, it's been shown that episodes of SH strat cooling correlate to a -NAO and a weaker NH SPV. I think a reload in early Jan is certainly in the cards given that

i know. shittiest pattern i've seen in quite some time

really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK