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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    I doubt it'll be strong however, this is a composite of all weak to moderate east-based and basin-wide Ninos. still a complete departure from what we've been seeing. just give me a damn Nino haha
  2. brooklynwx99
    ya know, I've been kinda thinking about it, but I'd imagine that once the tropical forcing shifts east with a Nino, you'd expect to see all of these roided out Aleutian ridges over AK and the WC. and as a result, the cutoffs that we've been seeing over the Rockies would be diving into the Plains and Midwest like literally shift everything 500 miles upstream and we're getting crushed
  3. brooklynwx99
    at least we should be good for next year?
  4. brooklynwx99
    I can't even tell you how hard I'm pulling for this to pan out just obliterate the Nina
  5. brooklynwx99
    we know
  6. brooklynwx99
    not sure if we're going to get a full wall-to-wall cold winter for a while, but Feb 2021 had KNYC receive almost 30" of snow, and there was highly anomalous cold over much of the country
  7. brooklynwx99
    it's more the Arctic becoming more favorable than the Pacific. I expect that to continue to not look good
  8. brooklynwx99
    this is so exhausting but whatever. anything good will probably have to wait until the end of the month into March
  9. brooklynwx99
    yeah I agree with the other mets. I apologize that late December didn’t work out, but that longwave pattern deserved some honking and it didn’t work out. it happens. does it suck? hell yeah, I’m just as frustrated as anyone else, believe me and I generally try and include caveats. I don’t think I’ve said that anything wintry was going to happen all winter… just discussing possibilities that were quite a ways out since there’s not much else to talk about. usually filled with a lot of IFs and BUTs and MAYBEs. I’m not going to act as if guidance looks horrible when it doesn’t, or not discuss a potential threat at days 7-10 if it bears merit
  10. brooklynwx99
    no, we're supposed to be pessimistic all the time because the guidance is always wrong, no matter what
  11. brooklynwx99
    that would literally change the entire complexion of the pattern, you dolt
  12. brooklynwx99
    you are a miserable human being
  13. brooklynwx99
    i mean, yes, there is a -PNA here, but this pattern is very active and has a lot of cold air. -NAO nosing in there keeping the 50/50 confluence close as well. great overrunning pattern verbatim I think this look would work down into NJ as well, obviously for NE. the main thing that makes me optimistic is that all of the cold air is in NA instead on the other side of the globe, which was a huge problem in January
  14. brooklynwx99
    yeah there will be nothing until the 23rd, which is also a maybe. IMO anything before like the 26th or so is gravy. the -NAO looks a bit more real, at least, which is when things would get more interesting for everyone. it's moving up in time and is showing up on OP runs and ensembles
  15. brooklynwx99
    yeah anything before the 25th or so is gravy IMO. the real chances would come once the -NAO develops, which is looking a bit more likely since it's moving up in time
  16. brooklynwx99
    true. March can be prolific, though. way more of a winter month than December, as much as many would hate to admit
  17. brooklynwx99
    anything before March 1st is a bonus anyway before any blocking that does occur gets going. that's when the ceiling gets raised it's obviously not a guarantee, but it's showing up more on OP runs and ensembles and moving forward in time the effects of the SSW will also downwell easily to 50mb and possibly to 100mb... this has a good chance of coupling IMO. might also be why ensembles are getting blockier towards March
  18. brooklynwx99
    no changes
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah because of one GFS OP run
  20. brooklynwx99
    nobody said it looks great. there are threats inside of day 10 now that may or may not pan out. that's all
  21. brooklynwx99
    persistence is always genius until it's completely wrong when you need it to be right the most
  22. brooklynwx99
    personally, I would wait until March is done with. it looks like we could have a nice stretch, which is what I would remember this winter for, IMO
  23. brooklynwx99
    nah, I would generally agree. if the pre-Christmas wave was weaker or the third wave was like 12-24 hours quicker, it would have been a different story, but alas
  24. brooklynwx99
    11 of the last 35 winters have had over 40" of snow. that's not really true here. variance is just increasing, not the likelihood of a winter of 35-40"+
  25. brooklynwx99
    this is a good look for an overrunning threat next week, though. broad LP over the midsection of the country with strong HP nosing into SE Canada to establish a good antecedent airmass. the 50/50 signal is also quite strong, which would help lock in any HP that's north of us
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