brooklynwx99

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

also, look at how the NMME sloshes the warmest anomalies over towards the dateline as the fall progresses. kind of reminds me of 1957-58, but stronger

yup, I saw and agree. that's why I think models like the CanSIPS actually have a clue. here's the NMME as well... 200mb, but this is still mint and very similar to the CanSIPS

if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up

I think the WPAC warm pool might help drag the forcing west this hurts us during La Ninas where it drags forcing west towards Indonesia, but can help in Ninos where it drags the forcing towards the Dateline. we'll see, but I'm optimistic

i think the western lean to the forcing that's been suggested should pull us more towards a favorable outcome rather than a crappy one

i didn't guarantee anything. i said that the patterns had a much higher than normal threat for a major snowstorm, and they certainly did hold that threat. those threats did not pan out, which happens from time to time if you cannot wrap your head around the concept of probability and risk, I don't really know what to tell you

the setups were amazing. too bad we didn't get anything, it happens. however, there were two massive storms in the windows both myself and many others posted about, one of which was historic in parts of New England and the Hudson Valley at least I'm formulating my own thoughts based on pattern recognition instead of breathlessly reposting tweets that aren't even my own just stop lmao there's a reason why you're five-posted

yeah but Paul Roundy said

the EMI really does increase as we head into the winter... the Jamstec has a mean DJF ENSO of around 1.2, which is on the weaker side, but it's more reasonable than 3C IMO if we keep the Nino under 2C, i will be pretty excited. there's definitely reason to be optimistic

I think if we get a 1.5-2C event with the forcing between 160-190W where the models have it, it's going to be a good winter. I don't think it's ridiculous to see something like the NMME or CanSIPS play out

here are the zonal winds from the Ninos that topped out over 2C... 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. these all exhibit very strong WWBs in the western Pacific: and here is this year: there is just no similarity at all. just based on this alone, I find it very hard to see this event spiking well over 2C like some have been proclaiming. perhaps a month between 2-2.1C. the majority of models seem to agree on this

i know, i really just don't see that happening at all. this event bears no resemblance to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98... those had massive westerly wind bursts and this event has nothing of the sort. I think this sits somewhere between 1.3-2C but that's about it

i have no idea how someone can look at this data and say that a super Nino is likely. the CFS has trended towards a strong event and the IRI dynamical models also paint the same picture. the BOM is a massive outlier and shouldn't be seriously considered the trade winds during this event have also had zero similarities to events like 2015-16 or 1997-98. i just don't see the support for that kind of solution

this model is an absolutely massive outlier and should be discounted for now. twitter sucks so hard lmao

i just have a very hard time believing the Australian when it's the most extreme outlier. just seems a bit much compared to literally everything else. it's obviously going to get a ton of traction on social media in the same way that a 384hr GFS OP snow map does, though the dynamical average peak of +1.5-2.0C seems the most reasonable right now

it's insane lmao

yeah this makes sense. just increases variance overall. going to have to be patient, but when we get hammered it probably breaks records

yeah that one was weak sauce. ONI topped out at 0.8 on the DJF mean so it had issues coupling with the WPAC warm pool and the two Ninas beforehand. if this thing is moderate to strong, it's going to couple and we're going to see Nino effects, no real doubt about that

yup that's definitely from the STJ. no matter how this winter goes, it'll be really interesting. excited to see what happens

what's nice is that the forcing from the seasonals is actually centered around 160-190W... would perhaps give us some Modoki-like stretches where the forcing leaks towards the dateline between without actually needing the Modoki nino. the WPAC warm pool might actually help us out rather than hurt us the forcing is really the main thing. the location of the SST anomalies just promotes forcing in certain spots, but I am very optimistic if we actually get forcing that pretty much sits in the central Pacific on average

the event beginning east based at this point in time has little to no bearing on where the greatest anomalies will be in the fall and winter. I would bet this ends up becoming solidly basin wide with the core of the SST anomalies around 110-140W

i know. it'll be interesting to see where the forcing actually sets up. farther east and we likely have a 1982/1997 type winter, while things could get very interesting if we get the same location as 2016 with a slightly weaker Nino. time will tell

it's actually kind of like a stronger version of 1957-58. that ENSO event started off very east based as well

the NMME is similar to the CanSIPS in that it does initially have a strong east-based Nino that becomes basin wide as it weakens once into the late fall and winter. this looks like a pretty plausible scenario where the Nino tops out at high-end strong but settles to around 1.5C once into winter although the Nino becomes basin-wide, I would imagine that there remains a western lean to the forcing due to the WPAC warm pool, as the height anomalies resemble more of a central-based event rather than a traditional basin-wide one. intriguing, to say the least... the 2016-type winter could be more of a legit analog at this point, but I would expect a significantly weaker Nino than that. no reason to go for a Nino over 2C in a three-month mean yet