brooklynwx99

it determines where and how strong the tropical forcing is, or at least it's the biggest influence of the forcing for +ENSO, it often leads to forcing that causes an Aleutian low to form based on where the warmest water is situated. this Nino is interesting because it seems like the WPAC warm pool may be dragging the forcing farther west towards MJO phases 7, 8, and 1. this leads to a farther west ULL that opens the door for split flow and blocking rather than an inundation of Pacific air it's the opposite for -ENSO, as the forcing is centered over the Maritime Continent in MJO phases 4, 5, and 6... these lead to an Aleutian high and low heights over the Pacific NW. this is why Ninas suck most of the time so seeing the forcing so consistently projected to be over the dateline leads me to believe that a favorable winter with a strong STJ is certainly in the cards... we just need to wait a couple more months to iron out the strength and location of the Nino

it is literally the largest ensemble we have for this kind of stuff. not sure what your gripe is about considering it'll have the highest skill given the most data available there is enough hardcore analysis of trade winds and shit like that. it doesn't really change that much on a daily basis. i mean, GaWx posts daily SST changes from three different analyses... is that not enough for you?

new data looks good

can't be mad at this

the new C3S looks good for the start of winter. it's an ensemble of the ECMWF, CanSIPS, NCEP, UKMET, French models, German models, and JAMSTEC... pretty much an ensemble of every major seasonal forecasting model. it's as holistic as we can get it is consistent with the cooling of 1+2, shifting the anomalies basin-wide once we head into the late fall and early winter. we end up with a high-end strong to low-end super Nino here on average. perhaps the most important part is that forcing sets up shop along the dateline, probably leading to a more favorable pattern. the forcing is more important than the strength, IMO. if we have forcing in this region for most of the winter, there is going to be a large winter storm or two. I would put money down on that 500mb shows this... keep in mind that this has the global mean subtracted, so the negative anomalies would be lesser, but this still shows a mean trough over the SE with blocking. the STJ is ripping with the right entrance region over the Gulf alongside split flow, and there is a significant positive precip anomaly over the EC

this doesn't give me much confidence. yes, there may be a pulse, but it looks like it'll be on the weaker side and towards the end of the month. most members have no wave at all

1957-58 did the same thing. was super east-based, shifted west, and was a great winter with central-based forcing. most models are showing the same

a few warm outliers of the ECMWF that are surely being shot around on twitter. that’s about it

if we get a moderate Nino we will be fine. doubt it's any weaker than 1.3-ish

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong... super Nino losing a lot of credence at this point

new NMME. pretty much moderate to strong. Nino generally doesn’t strengthen much until September

yes, there are some members that push a decent to strong MJO wave into 6, but these are outliers and the mean is still weak to non-impactful

the bias corrected CFS pretty much favors a moderate Nino as well. this falls in line with the CanSIPS. i think this is on the cooler side, but it has still trended colder over the last 15 days the ECMWF is still running warm, but it is still trending towards the CFS and CanSIPS. again, we would need to see significant warming occur very soon in order for the higher-end solutions to play out

CFS is still trending towards a high-end moderate to strong Nino. the members with a three-month over +2C are few and far between. we will need to see very rapid warming by the end of the month in order to have those super Nino predictions pan out

and to be perfectly clear, yes, there is a small chance that there is a super Nino. not totally discounting. but it’s just becoming less and less likely and this Nino still bears pretty much zero resemblance to any of the other past super Ninos. strong, however, is a good bet

by all means, you can post the CFS. it’s warm for most of the winter. i don’t get the victim complex lmao and yes, i believe one person, no matter how smart, can be totally wrong. i think the super Nino talk is borderline unfounded at this point, but we’ll see. the evidence is strongly mounting against it

95% of the thread consists of strict analysis of trade winds, Hovmoller plots, and even day by day warming and cooling of 3.4. it gets exhausting at times. god forbid people want to post a model that comes out once a month if you want to stick to the Paul Roundy super nino Twitter circle jerk, by all means. the +3.0 C BOM super Nino crap is honestly way more in the realm of wishcasting than any model has right now

SSTs dropped pretty significantly compared to the last two runs, and the forcing is still centered over the dateline. so it's not as insane and over the top as the last run, but this is still highly auspicious for anyone that wants a good winter in the E US

CanSIPS basically has the standard serviceable to good Dec, Jan thaw, then into a favorable winter pattern for Feb and Mar (-NAO, +PNA/-EPO, split flow)

the super Nino idea needs to shit or get off the pot, so to speak. we need to see significant warming over the next month if history is any indication, and I don't really see a mechanism for that to happen over the next couple of weeks. there is no MJO influence and forcing still remains well west over the Maritime Continent

not saying this towards anyone in particular, but I have no idea how anyone can be pessimistic about this winter outside of far NNE. there could be a lot going for it, and the east-based super Nino stuff is becoming more and more far-fetched by the day if anything, this is our best chance for a big winter from BOS to DC since 2014-15. 2020-21 was a bit fluky and not that widespread

also, look at how the NMME sloshes the warmest anomalies over towards the dateline as the fall progresses. kind of reminds me of 1957-58, but stronger

yup, I saw and agree. that's why I think models like the CanSIPS actually have a clue. here's the NMME as well... 200mb, but this is still mint and very similar to the CanSIPS

if this is correct, there is no way we aren't getting blasted. this has the MJO sitting in 7-8-1 all winter with a strong Nino. sign me up