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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    absolute monster block. wild
  2. brooklynwx99
    blocking is also trending stronger and moving forward in time on the EPS. nice trends with the PNA out west too
  3. brooklynwx99
    retrograding ridge is now showing up on the mean. nice to see again, most of the members with a SE ridge don't have the blocking at all or they keep it east-based and over Iceland. the vast majority of members with a legit central/west-based -NAO have the typical 50/50 response
  4. brooklynwx99
    i mean... this is kinda sorta how that December block formed. same kinda Scandi retrograding block, and it got picked up around the same time I agree with you in that this is how you'd want to see a block evolve. it's certainly more reliable than the shitty wave-break stuff. the SSW also bolsters the case for it
  5. brooklynwx99
    I'm also looking at the indies and it looks like if we get that block, there most likely won't be SE ridge issues. the vast majority of members with a SE ridge are the ones that keep the block over Iceland or don't develop it at all only a couple members with the blocking truly link it with a SE ridge
  6. brooklynwx99
    nice to see the retrogression on the mean, too. that is legit
  7. brooklynwx99
    blocking is becoming stronger and moving up in time. this is compared to 12z yesterday that is a very strong signal for this range
  8. brooklynwx99
    this retrograding Scandi block is pretty classic looking. hopefully we can keep this on guidance
  9. brooklynwx99
    hey, I’m good with that if we end up here
  10. brooklynwx99
    I don’t think it’s impossible, but the GEFS indies show that if a legit -NAO develops, it is far more likely that it forces the typical 50/50 response rather than a full latitude ridge therefore, I’ll keep it in the back of my mind, but I’m not gonna say it’s likely or anything
  11. brooklynwx99
    i know, I’m not making a direct comparison, just stating that I don’t think a -PNA would be that big of a deal this late in the year if we get a legit block to develop
  12. brooklynwx99
    i think it’s harder to see the -PNA screw things up than in December due to the shorter wavelengths March 2018 had a pretty deep -PNA but the block worked its magic
  13. brooklynwx99
    I agree. if we don’t get the block, we’re screwed. if we do, we could be in for a nice period due to the confluence i think it’s kinda all or nothing. the scenario where the block links up with SE ridging isn’t too much of a concern of mine
  14. brooklynwx99
    that would literally spit out a KU 75% of the time
  15. brooklynwx99
    i’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 and/or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block
  16. brooklynwx99
    around half of the members do have a SE ridge, but this is mainly from a lack of blocking, and this is making it look like we’d have more of a SE ridge than we would if we had a legit block if we end up getting one, we’d likely see the typical response from it, not a SE ridge
  17. brooklynwx99
    I’m not sure how “real” that SE ridge on the mean is. most of the members that do have a legit SE ridge have no blocking. I think it might be skewing things a bit a few members link the block and the SE ridge, but most force a big 50/50 or a trough over the EC… basically the classic response to a west based block
  18. brooklynwx99
    damn, this is the strongest we’ve seen the -NAO yet. some members likely have a legit west-based block here
  19. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2021 redux and then another blizzard immediately after. the weeniest of weenie runs lmao
  20. brooklynwx99
    Feb 2021 redux to a T lmao
  21. brooklynwx99
    not sure if I've prayed harder for anything more in my life
  22. brooklynwx99
    I get what you mean. I'm not getting excited by any of it, though. just noting that there may be some changes due to the SSW and potential blocking as a result I think it's worth mentioning possible changes
  23. brooklynwx99
    I mean, guidance is guidance regardless of how the winter has gone so far. it's not very wise to just ignore it I get the frustration, but persistence is always genius until it's wrong at the worst time
  24. brooklynwx99
    but yeah, they're persistently blocky. -PNA remains, but the -NAO becomes central-based. FWIW obviously, but this evolution has been showing up for a couple weeks now I'm inclined to believe it's legit given that the ensembles are showing the -NAO consistently
  25. brooklynwx99
    nah, even if they look good we should assume they'll look bad later wink wink
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