brooklynwx99

the CanSIPS, JMA, ECMWF pretty much have one, but they still look favorable due to where they have the greatest forcing. the raw ONI isn't as useful as it usually is here call these fantasy model projections all you want, but this is not what a typical super Nino looks like by any stretch. the WPAC warm pool is likely the reason for that... the MEI is likely closer to 1.3-1.7 and the forcing is likely dragged west as discussed ad nauseam by this point

the thing is that the raw SST anomalies have almost zero impact at this range the forcing has remained far west, and this is going to become basin wide anyway. not sure what the EP circle jerk is about right now. it’s kinda pointless

BEASTLY EP NINO with a MEI of +0.3 give me a break

in terms of MEI, the new reading for JJ came out at +0.3 1997 had a MEI for those months of +2.1, 1982 was +1.9, and +1.7 2002 was +0.4, 1986 was +0.8, and 2010 was +0.4 this year literally has a lower MEI than those moderate years and isn't in the same galaxy as the super years listed above. hence my skepticism of a super Nino blowtorch this year. this doesn't take the location of the forcing into account either

near normal is totally fine if there's blocking and a potent STJ if you're looking for big snow. doesn't have to be all that cold. Feb 2010 and Feb 1983 are good examples of that

but this is literally different than every nino in history. historical precedent isn’t as meaningful as it usually is

that does NOT look like a classic EB Nino. no idea what he’s talking about

i’m not even sure what he’s getting on about here… the Nino becomes basin wide on the C3S and forcing remains near the dateline. this would work well once into Jan and Feb. weird tweet

Webb’s tweet is dumb. no idea what he’s complaining about here… deep trough by Jan with forcing a tick east of the dateline. this will work

not sure what Webb is even talking about. i’m praying this verifies. deep trough once into Jan with forcing near the dateline? sign me up

so we can look at the modeled SST anomalies at 8 months out all we want, but we can't look at the modeled forcing, which is the thing that actually influences the pattern? why is that

this wasn't posted for some reason... lmao

yeah there was great blocking in Dec and Mar... the Dec blocking was picked up quite well by analogs just got ruined by a mix of awful luck and an insane -PNA. this year should not feature that -PNA, so blocking will be far more beneficial combined with the STJ I'm pretty confident in blocking given the Nino state as well as the -QBO

no they don’t way better than it looked last year. last year looked like shit and boy did it deliver

sorry it doesn’t live up to your lofty expectations

i don’t think it’s disingenuous at all. it hasn’t behaved like one in the past whatsoever. why would it later on? perhaps, but I’m not banking on that and it’s not for no reason. every other super Nino had that SST dipole with colder water in the WPAC. this one doesn’t, and it will have an impact

ECMWF looks great too

idk, you can use the MEI instead to show that this Nino isn’t going to have the same bite as other Ninos in the past with that WPAC warm pool in place. this one isn’t even close to past super Ninos. it makes sense given the weaker gradient and weaker circulations not sure why that’s even being argued in this thread

i’m sure it has the more central based forcing that the CanSIPS has. they both look very similar in terms of the 500mb presentation again, the WPAC warm pool could be playing a part there. can’t think of a another explanation for that

it means next to nothing at this point in the year. even the CanSIPS still has a highly-east based Nino for this month

yeah i get that. i just don’t really factor that in as much as other variables

“will” is a bit of an overstatement. i’m still favoring strong, and even if it does get to 2-2.1C, the RONI would likely be around 1.7, keeping the effects more strong than super anyway

there is going to be strong Nino forcing here. not concerned about anything Nina-related. no need

yeah we should see everything drift westward over the next month or two. this is a good start

and as we know, the difference between a high-end moderate and near super Nino are pretty profound even disregarding forcing I initially thought that the more moderate Modoki-esque years like 1986, 2002, and 2009 were completely useless. at this point, when looking at the lower RONI and possible west-based forcing, those years now need to be seriously considered. 2009 is actually a great analog when looking at QBO, PDO, and the summer pattern so far, surprisingly enough. with that being said, years like 1991 and 1982 still remain on the table. 1991 is also a great analog this could be a scenario where due to the WPAC warm pool, a 2C basin-wide super Nino could have the same effects as a 1.5C Modoki or close to it. I think this is what some models are trying to point out. we just don't know. pretty fascinating