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brooklynwx99

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Everything posted by brooklynwx99

  1. brooklynwx99
    it's not stated in the paper: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2013JD021343 here's a temperature composite they devised for all of the solar phases... ascending towards a max is quite favorable
  2. brooklynwx99
    I don't entirely disagree, but super Nino = warm doesn't seem to be the right way to go based on the factors presented thus far. this isn't behaving like a typical one and I don't expect it to come winter also, there is a decent shot that we could see the two halves of the winter vary wildly... look at 14-15, for example. I could see a +5 December and -2 February with above average precip. either way, the way your point is being framed is just too reductive. you also said "in the east," just New England
  3. brooklynwx99
    you're being reductive
  4. brooklynwx99
    I mean, ascending solar activity, especially near the max seems to favor a -NAO more than not. not a perfect correlation, but still favors it
  5. brooklynwx99
    pretty much two years at this point as well. the SPV is on the weaker end of normal, if anything. then, normal variability afterwards
  6. brooklynwx99
    the ascending solar activity approaching a max, -QBO, and general strong Nino forcing pretty solidly favor HL blocking this winter. the projected western lean to the forcing bolsters that even more so not exactly worried about a lack of blocking this winter
  7. brooklynwx99
    yup, last year shows why it’s such a great tool. it’ll play a part this year as well
  8. brooklynwx99
    i’ve heard everyone was like this after 01-02, then we got 02-03
  9. brooklynwx99
    https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  10. brooklynwx99
    the forcing likely has a western lean to it given the pull of the WPAC warm pool. the MEI is also a good bit lower than the ONI, suggesting that some of the punch is taken out of it due to the WPAC. modeling seems to be suggesting both of these outcomes, which is encouraging
  11. brooklynwx99
    you’re too hung up on the raw ONI dude
  12. brooklynwx99
    looks like this is becoming a basin-wide Nino as the models have projected. all seems to be on track there
  13. brooklynwx99
    that wasn’t an attack whatsoever. i am skeptical about the climate models, but I believe that the evidence is mounting for a good end to the winter after a slow start I can see everyone getting pretty much blanked through Jan 10-20, then the floodgates may open. we shall see
  14. brooklynwx99
    imagine if almost all modeling looked like garbage like last winter and you had people like “well maybe all the models are just wrong and we’ll have really favorable forcing!” they’d be shit on and rightfully so. not sure why it’s ok the other way around
  15. brooklynwx99
    also, you can give the climate models grief, but they usually get the general flavor of the winter right. it would be a complete modeling failure for them to totally bomb it
  16. brooklynwx99
    this is a silly post. there are reasons for it to lean to the west that have been discussed ad nauseum your point is just “well the models could all be totally wrong because i said so” which doesn’t hold that much water
  17. brooklynwx99
    December has a good chance of being legitimately awful IMO
  18. brooklynwx99
    i don’t know. sure, if the WPAC was cooler than normal and the forcing was at a normal spot, but I would be resigned to the torch train however, those two major factors are wholly different. not sure how we can apply “classic” analogs and ENSO states when things are anything but classic
  19. brooklynwx99
    yeah, the models looked like dog shit all summer for last winter. what about this Nino is going to be east based going into the winter? models have the forcing far west… it already is now. the SSTs are also going to become basin wide. what about that screams east based?
  20. brooklynwx99
    you’re being a bit reductive there’s nuance with all of this stuff
  21. brooklynwx99
    +4 Dec, near normal Jan and -2 Feb with blocking and a potent STJ paired with split flow would absolutely work though
  22. brooklynwx99
    it’s already been shown so far that the WPAC warm pool is weakening the coupling of the Nino… that is pretty much certain. a don’t think a 2.0C nino would behave like a classic one. why would it? we’re in a new climate
  23. brooklynwx99
    a blowtorch winter is absolutely not a reasonable expectation. what is showing that besides the CFS? if the models are correct with the forcing, near normal is a better bet, unless you’re in far northern NE
  24. brooklynwx99
    it wouldn’t be La Niña forcing though, it would be bouts of basin wide to west based Nino forcing. it’s not that ridiculous when the WPAC is at warm as it is the same boiling WPAC kept the MJO pinned farther west for 2021 and 2022, so this is probably what the modeling is hinting at
  25. brooklynwx99
    honestly those temp and snowfall maps aren’t that unreasonable for late Jan into March. early season might skew it warmer though
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