brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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this was forecast by pretty much everyone. end of the month into early Jan shows some promise though. just going to have to be patient
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I think that is unreasonable. Ninos are backloaded... places can easily not see much before Jan begins and the rest of the winter can still be great. 2014-15 is the prime example of that
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you don't think there's any validity? it's supported by the tropical convection moving along
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also worth noting that strong SPV warming usually leads to a pretty crappy pattern for the E US. this is likely due to such warming occurring when the MJO is in unfavorable phases
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patience is a virtue
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yeah I think for anything significant it'll have to wait until Christmas week but it's hard to totally punt all that time then. something can be fluked into with a well timed HP or something
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the thing is that a crappy Pacific doesn't just imply some "Nina hangover". strong Ninos often have a really crappy Pacific pattern that straightens itself out later in the year. like this is a typical thing. the Nino is working as intended what is nice is that we're already seeing blocking, which is a great sign for later in the year. also, moving through the warmer MJO phases of 4-5-6 will also dramatically weaken the SPV and perhaps even net us a SSW that can make Feb pretty wild if significant blocking develops
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the change looks pretty quick as the MJO propagates so I'm not really that worried
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there is a transient period of MC forcing as the MJO circles back around to 7-8-1. i wouldn’t worry about it too much
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i highly doubt it. Strong El Niños often feature a trough in the SW US anyway a ridge over the E US is to be expected. it’s nice to see the persistent -AO/NAO though. that bodes well
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strong blocking doesn’t allow for a major snowstorm every time. it simply greatly increases the odds. you can still get screwed
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there is no reason why a borderline super Nino event wouldn’t lead to Nino conditions. perhaps you can look back and see that, but to forecast a lack of change is silly in my opinion
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LOL weenies for saying the MJO would quickly progress. is this good enough? i’m not just saying stuff to say it i swear, some are just making crap up to potentially prepare themselves for a negative outcome. it’s so weird
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that appears to be a transient pattern as the MJO quickly passes through the unfavorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan. makes sense as the MJO goes into favorable phases
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weeklies are straight weenie fuel from the holidays through mid Jan
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strong to super Ninos have a pretty significant dearth of blocking in December. it is unusual to see a persistent -NAO this early Ninos that do have -NAO Decembers carry it over through the rest of the winter more than not, though
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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i know the Pacific isn’t ideal at this point, but seeing the persistent -NAO signal is awesome to see for the rest of the winter
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the Pacific just has to be serviceable. it was god awful the last two years, i don’t expect that this year
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and yes, the Pacific isn’t amazing there, but it is not nearly as prohibitive as it was last year. it should also improve as the MJO progresses east
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also, the move through the 6-7 phases as well as the B-K Sea ridge will help disrupt the SPV further. this signal for a Scandi ridge can also retrograde into a -NAO
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this is a clean progression into 7-8-1
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the same occurs in La Niña years when we get forcing into 7-8
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i’m pretty sure it’s weakened
