brooklynwx99

the satellite era began in the 60s. not sure why that's relevant given the four major super Nino events were from 1972 onward

not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value... 1972: +1.8C 1982: +1.9C 1997: +2.3C 2015: +1.9C 2023: +0.4C if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI: 2009: +0.5C 2006: +0.6C 2004: +0.7C 2002: +0.8C 1994: +0.9C I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

and again, not sure what about this ENSO event has been "classic." very little has gone to plan with this event in terms of actual atmospheric forcing, and that still remains the case. just compare the MEI values for the previous super Ninos at this time to the present JA value... 1972: +1.8C 1982: +1.9C 1997: +2.3C 2015: +1.9C 2023: +0.4C if you're telling me that won't make any kind of difference, I find that very hard to believe. those super Nino years are 5-6 times stronger in terms of MEI, and MEI attempts to determine how well the SSTs and the atmosphere are actually connected. I'm not sure how one could see this and be like "yeah, this is a classical east based event" when there is nothing classical about this given how it's coupling with the atmosphere this year remains more similar to the weak and moderate events in terms of MEI: 2009: +0.5C 2006: +0.6C 2004: +0.7C 2002: +0.8C 1994: +0.9C I expect the MEI to top out somewhere in the 1.0-1.4C range... can't see how it gets much higher than that. and yes, the MEI will make Ninas stronger, similar to last year, and we will have to use it all the same. I don't even necessarily expect a snowy winter here or anything. I just think that this isn't going to play out like a typical EP Nino torch, and the modeling has been pretty steadfast in that

of course, no nuance ever exists on places like Twitter... it's either the second coming of 2009 or an unabated torch like 1997. drives more clicks, so I can't even blame them

once we get into the winter, this likely becomes a basin-wide event with a configuration more similar to 2015-16... there is a middle ground between a super east-based event like 1997 and a Modoki event like 2009

regardless of raw SSTs, when looking at factors like MEI, this event still pales in comparison to classical EP super Ninos. VP has also not really followed those events, nor have traditional factors like strong WWBs not to say it’s going to be particularly cold/snowy or anything, but I can’t imagine it’s a coincidence that that’s the case. Webb is being a tad reductive IMO

the CFS is just so bad. even the averaged plots on TT flip from week to week

it's worth noting that ENSO effects don't really get going until late fall into winter anyway, so us seeing some Nina-like patterns in October and early November doesn't really say much about the potential character of the winter I mean, the CanSIPS has a modoki-esque Feb pattern with an Aleutian ridge in October

all that he’s saying is that it could lead to a difference in what we usually see… +ENSO/-QBO still favors blocking regardless

a -NAO/-PNA is actually the main way the big dogs occur historically... you generally want that set of teleconnections, given the -PNA isn't overwhelming

we should see the MEI poke into the +1.0 - 1.4 range at some point in the next few months. this Nino is still going to strengthen a bit

you're right, it probably is later than that... OND is likely a better guess. I just don't really know what keeps this going for that long

in terms of trimonthly ONI, I'd say the highest this gets is 1.9... range of 1.7 - 1.9, probably in SON

that’s NW/WNW flow aloft… generally very dry with those kinds of patterns you get the most 500mb diffluence downstream of a ridge, which usually leads to high pressure

the pattern after the weekend is drier than a Popeye's biscuit

this has nothing to do with you, but how did he come to the conclusion that it's east-based from this data? as far as I know, models are still showing a basin-wide event

it will be difficult to get heavy rain that far north and west with that strong C Canada ridge... the NW flow aloft is mimicking confluence like it would in the winter

granted, it was "rains to Maines," not the border

ECMWF is even more suppressed than it was before... stronger HP overhead as the anomalous C Canada ridge leaks east

you know as well as anybody that this is lagging far behind past super Ninos. it’s not like the MEI is like half a degree lower. it’s like 1-2 degrees too low… that is going to make a difference

based on CC, NYC/BWI have the best chances they've ever had to see respective 70"/50" winters... but that comes with the added disadvantage of seeing a real dud, too. that dud happened last year

in terms of snowfall, CC is just leading to more variance. when you bust, you bust, but in good winters it'll boom more than usual 2009-10 and 2014-15 are good examples of booms... 2022-23 and 2019-20 are good example of busts

I could see December being quite warm here before the Nino really gets going. not as warm as Dec 2015, but warm nonetheless

I don't think a raging Pacific jet coming from AK will be an issue this winter, especially once into late Jan and Feb. if anything I'd be worried about an Aleutian low that wanders too close

the Nino-esque pattern should get going once into the late fall, like November into early December this winter is going to behave like a Nino... really not worried about that at all